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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer greets supporters in London on July 5 after the Labour Party’s landslide victory which ended 14 years of Conservative rule. Photo: Bloomberg
Opinion
Inside Out
by David Dodwell
Inside Out
by David Dodwell

Britain’s election shows Hong Kong the flaws and strengths of democracy

  • The results of the 2024 UK general election have humbled the Conservative Party, but also put on display some of the quirks of the democratic process
David Dodwell
Through last week’s democratic dramas in the United Kingdom and France, and as the agonising democratic stress-test in the United States continues, the best and the worst aspects of democracy at work have been on full display.
From afar, we in Hong Kong have been able to weigh what we have lost and what we have gained now that a patriotic filter has been applied to elections to our Legislative Council, a chamber that had become chaotic and dysfunctional.

The recent polls have shown the capacity of democratic elections to manage even-momentous political transitions. They also powerfully demonstrate the value of democratic processes in keeping political leaders modest, and providing swift, clear and brutal judgment when they fail.

Where but in a democracy would you watch a nation’s leader humbly confess his government’s failings as Rishi Sunak did in the UK as outgoing prime minister? “I am sorry. I have given this job my all. But you have sent a clear signal that the government of the UK must change, and yours is the only judgement that matters. I have heard your anger, your disappointment; and I take responsibility for this loss,” he said.
The shocking defeat reduced the number of seats the Conservative Party holds in Britain’s parliament from 372 to 121, their poorest result on record. The election has seen the Labour Party, which took a historic drubbing in 2019, more than double its seats to 412 with a massive majority in the 650-seat parliament.
Britain’s outgoing Conservative Party prime minister Rishi Sunak with his wife Akshata Murty walk out of 10 Downing Street to a podium where Sunak made a short speech before going to see King Charles III to tender his resignation in London, on July 5. Photo: AP

But the process also delivered more subtle messages that might not easily have become visible without such an election. Labour’s gain came from a meagre increase in voter support from over 32 per cent in 2019 to 34 per cent last Thursday. Britain’s quirky “first-past-the-post” election system allowed Labour to win about 64 per cent of the seats in parliament on the back of 34 per cent of the votes.

The Labour victory, therefore, was not the result of enthusiastic voter support for Sir Keir Starmer. The election saw the lowest voter turnout in over two decades, barely 60 per cent. But because of a crushing indictment of the past 14 years of arrogant and inept rule, which saw it run through five prime ministers, the Conservative Party only won 24 per cent of the vote.

Just as the Labour Party benefited from the quirks of the election system, other parties were spectacularly affected. The UK’s Green Party won 7 per cent of the vote – about a fifth of the vote share won by Labour – albeit just four seats.

The most dramatic quirk of all came from the far-right Reform UK Party led by Nigel Farage, which has been a powerful and mischievous thorn in the side of the Conservative Party, championing Brexit and fiercely opposing immigration. In a campaign specifically targeted at Conservative seats, Reform won around 14 per cent, attracting roughly 4 million votes. Shockingly, Farage’s party won over half as many votes as the Conservatives, but gained a meagre five parliamentary seats, compared with the Conservatives’ 121. His Reform Party candidates came second in nearly 100 constituencies.

The warning to the Conservative Party was clear: the civil war fought for the past decade within the party over Brexit and immigration is nowhere near resolved, and it may be unable to recover power until this critical intraparty war is settled.

A cyclist passes a van with advertising for the Reform UK Party in Clacton On Sea, England on July 4. Photo: AP

The Labour Party should also beware: the right-leaning Conservative Party and Reform UK together won 38 per cent of the vote, a larger share than the Labour Party’s 34 per cent. Had Farage’s party decided not to compete in the election, Labour would probably not have won. Starmer has a long way to go before he wins the majority of voters’ hearts, even if for now he has managed to capture an astonishing number of seats in Britain’s parliament.

The other striking democratic quirk in the UK election sits with the centrist Liberal Democratic Party. Its share of the vote nudged marginally up to 12 per cent from 11.5 per cent in 2019, but that half-per cent increase boosted seats won from a meagre 11 in 2019, to a stunning 72 today. A combination of a massive nationwide vote-split between the Conservatives and Reform, and careful tactical targeting of marginal constituencies, enabled the Liberal Democrats to convert themselves from inconsequential outsiders to the third-largest voting bloc, with the potential to exert significant influence on power in the next five years.

Not only do such elections provide a unique way of speaking truth to power, but they can provide leaders with sensitive signals that can help them avoid policy errors and attune policy priorities to shifting public opinion. A clear warning to our own administration is that in the absence of such warning signals, leaders still need to find effective ways of sounding out – and being responsive to – public concerns.

The UK election results in particular provide a resounding reminder of the need for modesty in public office, with Starmer declaring Britain had “voted decisively for change, for national renewal and a return of politics to public service”.

Their reminder is that, whether a democracy or not, and whatever the quirky kind of democracy we live with, good governance is not guaranteed. Autocracies can be bad, but so can democracies. Often it is not the political architecture that determines good governance, but the integrity of the people that govern.

National elections offer a clear and simple way of publicly auditing the quality of governance. In the absence of elections, that audit is still needed.

David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on developments and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific

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