As Japan’s Suga bows out, Chinese hopes of a reset rise with Kishida. But will the ‘dove’ deliver?
- Fumio Kishida’s victory over right-wing party rivals brought cheer to Beijing, which described him as ‘the best possible option’ for China
- While Kishida belongs to a dovish faction, his hardline campaign stance has raised worries about the lingering influence of China hawks Abe and Aso
But it soon appeared that Suga, the right-hand man of his predecessor and strongman Shinzo Abe, had other priorities to tend to – effectively preferring Washington over Beijing.
The four-way pact, also including India and Australia, known as the Quad, has been slammed by Beijing as Asia’s mini-Nato aimed at containing China.
The Chinese foreign ministry has said Beijing is ready to “promote the sound and stable development of relations” with the former Japanese foreign minister. State-controlled broadcaster CGTN described Kishida as “the best possible option for Beijing” among the top contenders for the job and said his election may bring about “a course correction” in China-Japan relations.
As the most hardline candidate in the race to succeed Suga, Takaichi was initially backed by Abe and popular among the LDP’s conservative members.
Unlike Kono, who positioned himself as a reformer, Kishida is a pragmatist who comes from a traditionally dovish faction. Representing Hiroshima as a lawmaker, Kishida was once head of the prefecture’s Japan-China Friendship Association.
However, he took on the position of a China hawk during the campaign in a bid to muster the support of Abe and other conservative lawmakers.
“Coinciding with the LDP’s shift towards a tougher stance on China, Kishida’s election is proof that the ruling party is still being controlled by Abe and fellow former prime minister Taro Aso,” Liu said.
It suggested more continuity than change in terms of Kishida’s policy agenda, according to Liu, which means he was likely to keep most of Suga’s existing policies intact, especially when it came to strengthening Japan’s ties with the US and promoting a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
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And China will be watching closely. “Kishida talked tough on China during the campaign, but it remains to be seen if and how he would translate his hawkish campaign rhetoric into policy. China will pay great attention to what he does, not just what he says,” Liu said.
Lee Myon-woo, a Japan expert and vice-president of the Sejong Institute in Seoul, said although Japanese leaders may get tougher on China politically, they were unlikely to change Tokyo’s stance of trying to keep politics out of the close bilateral trade and business ties.
He noted there was a big perception gap between China and Japan over who should be held accountable for the downward spiral in mutual ties, with each side blaming the other for deepening mistrust and hostility.
“Japan has been arguing that the existing international rules and norms including the issues related to the South and East China seas should be maintained as is, while China is arguing they can and should be changed,” Lee noted.
“There would be not much room for Japan under Kishida or anyone else to change its existing position, not just because the US is pressing Japan, but because Japan also thinks it is China that is trying to change the rules.”
Sun Xingjie, an expert on northeast Asian affairs at Jilin University in China, however, said Kishida, considering his intraparty background and past experience, would be in a better position than Suga to make changes to existing policies, including those relating to China.
Suga, who became vulnerable to infighting in the absence of strong factional backing, lost support both from his party and the public over his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his poor communication skills during a crisis.
“Kishida has all the right credentials to rise as a strong leader. Unlike Suga, he will probably grow more confident in himself because he is capable of controlling his cabinet and developing his own thinking and policies,” Sun said.
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According to Sun, there has been a certain pattern in the ups and downs of China-Japan ties over the years.
But Sun admitted that, although Suga may have left a limited legacy on foreign policy, it would still be difficult for his successor to undo what he did and bring Japan-China ties back to where they were a year ago, given the rapidly shifting dynamics between Beijing and Washington.
Benoit Hardy-Chartrand, an international affairs expert at Temple University in Tokyo, was of the same opinion.
According to him, Suga’s pursuit of a harder line on China was in keeping with changing views both within the Japanese policy elites and the population and he should also be credited with reinforcing Japan’s position within the Quad.
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Beijing sees self-ruled Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunited, by force if necessary.
“As long as the LDP is in power, which is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future, we are unlikely to see a fundamental rethinking of Japanese ties with the US. There is broad agreement within the LDP as to both the necessity for Japan to take on a greater leadership role and the necessity of strengthening ties with the US, which it sees as a key bulwark against China,” said Hardy-Chartrand.
But it is still likely that Japan’s new leader would seek a more stable relationship with China, as next year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalisation of official ties, he pointed out.
Indeed, while Kishida has vowed to work with “like-minded” democracies to counter China’s growing influence and called Taiwan the “front line” in a struggle by democracies to resist authoritarianism’s advance, he has also called for summit talks with President Xi Jinping.
“I expect him to look for a summit with Xi Jinping once his cabinet is in place and he has found his footing,” Hardy-Chartrand said.
Monika Chansoria, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs in Tokyo, also said Kishida was expected to showcase a balancing act of Japan’s great power relationships with both China and the US.
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“Be it the outgoing Suga, or incoming Kishida, Japan’s political leadership will continue exhibiting a balancing act between growing domestic concerns on China’s predatory security posture and policies, and its primary focus on the centrality of its security alliance with Washington,” she said.
However, Kishida could not afford to appear to engage with China at the cost of seemingly bowing to it on critical issues, Chansoria said.
“It should not occur at the cost of Japan’s own security and strategic concerns, especially in the East China Sea. This, in all probability, would be an uphill task for Japan and Kishida, as Beijing’s relationships are not just turning far bitter with Japan’s major security partners, but with Tokyo itself, on many fronts.”
And as the US-China rivalry intensifies, such a balancing act would become increasingly unattainable, analysts warned.
Japan’s new leader will have to stay flexible and prepared because US-China relations may improve if it suits [their] interests
“As a US treaty ally, Japan relies extensively on the US when it comes to external security issues. That will further limit its room for manoeuvre and one day it may have to choose sides between economic cooperation with China and security alliance with the US,” Sun Xingjie said. “It is an ultimate test of political wisdom for all the leaders involved.”
Zhou Yongsheng, deputy director of the Japanese Studies Centre at China Foreign Affairs University, also pointed to the limits of Tokyo’s US-centred foreign policy.
“Japan’s new leader will have to stay flexible and prepared because US–China relations may improve if it suits the interests of the rival powers,” he said.
Liu Jiangyong of Tsinghua University echoed Zhou’s view.
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Chansoria and other analysts also voiced concerns about the frequent reshuffles in Japanese leadership in the past 20 years, with Suga becoming the latest in a long list of prime ministers who had stayed in office for only about a year.
“While the LDP has dominated post-war politics in Japan, amid its core competency to preserve power as the ruling party, there are apprehensions if Japan, would, in fact, return to the pattern of its ‘revolving-door prime ministers’ with one-year tenures that were characteristic of Japan’s politics prior to 2012 [when Abe took office],” Chansoria said.
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Zhou said Kishida would probably become another transitional figure like Suga, which would significantly hinder his ability to get things done.
“Although Kishida may be capable of improving ties with China and South Korea, I’m not sure there will be enough time for him to do his job properly. He may be a bit stronger than Suga, but he is still likely to fall victim to the fierce factional competition in his own party,” he said.
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“It is a worrying sign,” he said.
Nikai, 82, known for his close ties with the leadership in Beijing, has for years played a crucial role in stabilising bilateral ties, especially in times of crises, such as the territorial row over the Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyus in China, in the early 2010s.
Speculation has been rife that Nikai may be replaced soon, as his critics, including Kishida, are concerned about his influence and links with China.
