California’s consumer confidence about the future often falls into a funk in presidential election years.
My trusty spreadsheet looked at the poll-powered results of the Conference Board’s index of statewide optimism, a benchmark that dates to 2007. To gauge political influences, the index average of the first five months of election years — 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 — was compared with the 13 years when control of the White House was not up for grabs.
Topline
Presidential politics often makes people grumpy — no matter your candidate or their chances of victory.
This California index confirms that thesis. Election year confidence, by this math, ran on average 7 percent lower than the non-election periods.
Details
This yardstick of shopper psyche comprises two factors — one eyeing today’s financial picture, the other tracking economic hopes. There’s a wide gap in the sub-index performance in these politically charged years.
The California view of current conditions was only 2 percent worse in election years than other times.
Conversely, their expectations for the future were 11 percent lower when the White House was up for a vote.
Economically speaking, nerve-wracking national politics chill the view of the future — and that anxiety can cut the urge to spend.
Caveat
Could 2024 be an outlier?
California started the year in the most optimistic mood of these five election years, despite what looks to be a bruising political rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The state’s overall confidence index was 8 percent above the non-election year average. But, again, we see a split now versus the future.
California’s current conditions index in 2024’s first five months was the most upbeat about real-time finances of the five election years. It was also 33 percent above the average “now” scores in non-election years.
However, this year’s expectations ran 11 percent below the non-election “future” as California’s 2024 outlook was the second-most pessimistic of the five election years.
Bottom line
This pattern is no California quirk.
Nationally, overall confidence was 3 percent lower in election years since 2007. But US consumers saw 2% better current conditions — and an 8 percent worse future.
And look at this presidential confidence gap in seven other states tracked. When states are ranked by size of the election year divide, it’s hard to see much of a red state/blue state theme …
Illinois: 7 percent lower confidence overall — 1 percent worse for current conditions and 12 percent worse for expectations.
Florida: 7 percent lower overall — 4 percent worse currently, 10 percent worse expectations.
New York: 6 percent lower overall — 1 percent worse currently, 9 percent worse expectations.
Ohio: 3 percent lower overall — 5 percent better currently, 9 percent worse expectations.
Texas: 2 percent lower overall — 1 percent better currently, 5 percent worse expectations.
Michigan: 2 percent lower overall — 3 percent better currently, 5 percent worse expectations.
Pennsylvania: 1 percent lower overall — 3 percent better currently, 5 percent worse expectations.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
