San Diego could be the site of a new state program using one of the most cost-effective homelessness prevention practices.
The county is one of a handful potentially targeted for a pilot program that provides short-term grants to people struggling to stay in their homes.
It’s not a new concept. At least two local agencies — the San Diego Housing Commission and the county of San Diego — already provide so-called “shallow” subsidies, generally ranging from $500 to $700 per month.
The county approved its pilot program for older adults in 2021 and last year more than tripled the number of recipients to 220. The commission’s Housing Instability Prevention Program assists several hundred households of broader age groups.
While data is still being collected on such programs, studies have shown these efforts are among the most cost-efficient ways to keep people from falling into homelessness. However, officials stress the need to create more affordable housing is paramount.
The state subsidy legislation comes amid intense debate over proposed cuts to the Housing Commission budget in Mayor Todd Gloria’s budget that would likely reduce such subsidies, along with longer-term rental assistance, and potentially limit space in existing homeless shelters.
Several members of the San Diego City Council last week appeared unwilling to embrace Gloria’s latest proposals for two new large shelters in the face of possible cuts to existing programs, according to Blake Nelson of The San Diego Union-Tribune.
Gloria wants to use land known as H Barracks, the site of a former U.S. Navy facility near San Diego International Airport, as a place for homeless people to sleep in vehicles. Last month, he announced plans to convert a building at Kettner Boulevard and Vine Street into what would be the city’s largest shelter.
There’s no disputing that San Diego has a shortage of shelter space. While adequate shelters are necessary, some officials note the cost per bed for an individual is significantly higher than rental assistance that can keep a family housed.
Once a person becomes homeless, the cost to get them shelter or housing grows significantly. An overriding issue is that shortchanging rental assistance can lead to more homelessness. It would be difficult if not impossible to provide enough shelter beds to keep up.
A study by UC San Francisco conducted in 2021-22 concluded an extra $300 to $500 in rental assistance or income each month could have made the difference in keeping many people in California from becoming homeless — or could have helped pull them out of it.
The Housing Commission is looking at a reduction from $48 million in the current fiscal year to $27.9 million in the next one. Commission staff has said $52 million is needed to maintain its existing level of services.
Discussions about adjusting the Housing Commission budget proposal are ongoing, but Gloria is dealing with a significant budget shortfall. The mayor is looking to balance the $2.15 billion budget with $100 million in various program cuts along with canceling $30 million in scheduled reserve contributions and borrowing $25 million from infrastructure projects, according to David Garrick of the Union-Tribune.
Meanwhile, Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing a huge budget problem — a $27.6 billion deficit after already cutting $17 billion. Newsom’s proposal calls for cutting more than $1 billion in affordable housing and homelessness programs in the $288 billion budget.
That reality hovers over what otherwise appears to be enthusiastic support among lawmakers for Assembly Bill 2498, which would establish an emergency rental subsidy program.
The bill, carried by Assemblymember Rick Zbur, D-Los Angeles, was approved by the Assembly Housing and Community Development Committee on a 7-0 vote on April 24.
The committee chair, Democratic Assemblymember Chris Ward of San Diego, was among several committee members and people testifying who heartily endorsed the bill.
“A lot of these studies have been able to show that just a little bit of subsidy, that little bit of assistance, keeps people stabilized and housed, (and) stops adding to the numbers experiencing homelessness on our streets,” Ward said during the hearing.
One group was on record opposing AB 2498.
“While acknowledging the importance of preventive measures, the exorbitant expenses associated with this initiative could exacerbate the state’s financial challenges rather than address them,” said the Valley Industry and Commerce Association, a business group in the San Fernando Valley.
The bill doesn’t have an overall dollar figure for the program and leaves it up to the Legislature to determine funding. The measure does say that one-time subsidies or per-month grants should not exceed $2,000 per household over the duration of the two-year pilot program.
The subsidies initially would be limited to six counties — one in Northern California, two in the central region of the state and three in the south. At least one of those three counties would have to be San Diego, Imperial or Orange.
The bill does not have a fast timeline. After a handful of steps to organize the program, counties would be required to begin distributing subsidies by Jan, 1, 2027.
Various other state and federal rental assistance programs already exist. An analysis of AB 2498 said the subsidies are insufficient to meet the demand.
“Only a fraction of renters that need assistance receive it, and this housing assistance gap is expected to worsen,” the analysis says.
The average wait time for a federally funded Section 8 voucher in San Diego is 12-15 years, according to the Housing Commission.
As the bill notes, the need for rental assistance is growing.
More than 80 percent of extremely low-income San Diegans — earning $31,850 a year for an individual — were paying more than half their income on rent in fiscal year 2022-23, according to a report by the nonprofit California Housing Partnership released Thursday.
The organization gave the region poor marks across the board for everything from homeless housing to subsidized rentals, according to Phillip Molnar of the Union-Tribune, and expressed concern about decreasing funding.
There are many spending priorities competing for tight budget funds in the coming year. Effective programs that help keep people from living on the streets should be at the top of the list.
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