Opinion |

Uncertainty ahead with half of adults worldwide going to polls

Somehow, traveling across the globe to Japan — as I recently did — has a way of reminding a person of our interconnectedness. While it may be thousands of miles between points A and B, the world is very small indeed. What happens in one location can have significant effects on people and places far away.

This year, we are cinched even tighter. More than half the world’s adults — roughly 6 billion people — will share the opportunity to participate in nationwide elections, according to The Economist. It’s a historic number, with 64 of the biggest and most populated countries set to hold a vote, including the U.S., India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico, plus the European Union.

Beyond the act of voting, global citizens share a stake in the outcome: the future of democracy, no less. Freedom House, a nonprofit organization that works to expand and defend freedom across the world, says democracy in its ideal form is based on “the will and consent of the governed, institutions that are accountable to all citizens, adherence to the rule of law, and respect for human rights.” 

A democratic society, according to Freedom House, has “mutually reinforcing structures” that provide checks on a person’s power. It requires rival candidates or parties to compete fairly and to govern for the good of the public as a whole, not just themselves or their supporters. It levels the playing field “so that every person, no matter the circumstances of their birth or background, can enjoy the universal human rights to which they are entitled and participate in politics and governance.”

To Freedom House, democracy is more than just an ideal — it has a “unique and inherent capacity for self-correction.” In a democracy, there are tools that can be used when decisions or actions fall short of democratic principles. When properly used, democracy grows stronger, enabling a country to deliver stability and prosperity.

Today, almost 60 percent of the world’s countries are democratic. Their citizens enjoy more political and civil rights, certainly, than those who live in non-democracies, but as Barbara F. Walter noted in her 2022 book, “How Civil Wars Start,” they are also happier, wealthier, better educated and, generally, have a higher life expectancy. It’s why refugees continue to flee repressive countries around the globe, in search of this better life.

Walter was the 2022 recipient of the National Peacemaker Award from the National Conflict Resolution Center. I remember our conversation over coffee, a mix of pleasantries and pointed words. Walter’s extensive research led her to a sobering conclusion: One of the best predictors of whether a country will experience a civil war is whether it is moving toward or away from democracy.

As Walter said, decline often occurs at the hands of “would-be despots” who whittle away rights and freedoms and concentrate power. Often, these countries continue to hold elections, even as their leaders threaten (or outright abolish) many democratic foundations.

Yet voting is the primary language of democracy — a way for citizens to choose their leaders and give voice to the issues they care about. It’s an awesome responsibility, as I saw in Niger, a West African country where I coordinated the international election observation team. Throughout its history, Niger has alternately implemented and dismantled democratic reforms, starting with elections.

Doug Saunders, in a recent article that appeared in The Globe and Mail, said that informed observers are anticipating 2024′s torrent of ballots “with deep anxiety and ominous foreboding.” He wrote, “Many of those elections will be crucial tests of the very basis of liberal democracy — and some countries will fail.” Some have described 2024 as a global make-or-break year for democracy.

There is no shortage of angst stirring about the Nov. 5 presidential election here in the U.S. With Donald Trump as the front-runner for the Republican nomination, some worry that his election would propel our country toward authoritarianism. Trump has expressed admiration for autocratic leaders around the world.

Still, there are reasons to be hopeful, Saunders noted. An election in Poland last October put a decisive end to eight years of rule by an extreme, right-wing party that had severely curtailed the rights of Polish citizens. A year earlier, a Brazilian election drove strongman Jair Bolsonaro out of office. As Saunders said, “Even an entrenched authoritarian can be ousted by a determined people.”

It speaks to a shared desire that draws us closer together: to live in a free and just society, with opportunity for all.

Dinkin is president of the National Conflict Resolution Center, a San Diego-based group working to create solutions to challenging issues, including intolerance and incivility. To learn about NCRC’s programming, visit ncrconline.com.