Opinion |

Ready or not, the presidential election is one year away

It’s T-minus one year until the next presidential election in the United States. I hate to say it, but I’m feeling a sense of dread — not about the likely candidates but more so, the role that social media will surely play.

Usage of social media platforms in our country has increased dramatically: Just 5 percent of American adults used at least one platform in 2005, according to Pew Research Center. That climbed to 72 percent of adults by 2021.

The expansion has been beneficial in many ways, bringing important issues to the forefront of the public’s attention. Further, social media has enabled candidates, political organizations and causes to reach more people with more efficiency, improving information flows, outreach, mobilization and fundraising.

According to the Integrity Institute, an organization that is dedicated to “protecting the social internet,” it’s why almost every political campaign has adopted a “digital-first” strategy.

With its growing number of users, social media has become our country’s primary news source.

A 2022 Morning Consult poll of people who consume news daily found that 37 percent rely on social media; 26 percent watch network news and just 12 percent read newspapers, like me.

Yet newspapers are considered most trustworthy: 61 percent of respondents trust them, while 59 percent trust network news. Just one-third of respondents trust social media.

This mistrust is not misplaced. Just as platforms can be used to educate, enlighten and engage, they can also be used to spread misinformation and disinformation, support voter suppression and disenfranchisement, and promote hate speech, harassment and political polarization — which can compound in a way that affects election outcomes.

Social media can also cause what the Integrity Institute calls “off-platform, real world harm,” including the incitement of election-related and political violence that targets voters, poll workers, election officials, candidates, party members and social groups. It can erode public trust in the societal institutions that support democracy.

Last year, the former head of global elections for Facebook, Katie Harbath, participated in a conversation hosted by the National Conflict Resolution Center called “Social Media and the Future of Democracy.” (Harbath is currently an Integrity Institute fellow.) She talked about the challenges that online platforms face, with the 2024 U.S. presidential election — and 82 other elections around the world — heading their way. Harbath implored them to initiate an internal elections integrity program, citing the need to safeguard democracy.

That’s a big and important ask, when you consider that next year’s elections will affect the lives of nearly 3.65 billion people, according to the Integrity Institute.

It appears that X (formerly known as Twitter) has gone in the opposite direction in the one year since it was purchased for $44 billion by Elon Musk. When he bought the company, Musk claimed he wanted to create a “common digital town square,” adding, “Twitter obviously cannot become a free-for-all hellscape.”

Now X is valued at $19 billion. Ad revenue has fallen 50 percent and site visits declined 14 percent in September, compared with the same month last year. In a recent New York Times article, Steven Lee Myers, Stuart A. Thompson and Tiffany Hsu pointed to the increase in harmful content on X during the Musk era, especially since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas. The authors noted that one of Musk’s earliest decisions was to disband an advisory council focused on trust and safety issues, laying off employees who addressed them.

As social media proliferates (and with it, misinformation and disinformation), trusted newspapers are closing across the country. We are on pace to lose one-third of our newspapers by 2025. Already, more than one-fifth of Americans live in what’s considered to be a news “desert,” with limited access to local news.

Yet now more than ever, we need an informed and active public that has confidence in our institutions and elected officials. Absent that confidence, our democracy will become increasingly fragile. To Rosette Garcia, president of the League of Women Voters of North County San Diego, it means empowering every person with the knowledge, desire and confidence to vote. It also means increasing civic engagement: inspiring people to want to make a difference in the quality of life in their communities, through both political and non-political means.

That’s the key, of course. When we recognize ourselves as members of a larger social fabric — and feel a sense of belonging — we care more. We see problems as our own. And we’re more likely to act, rather than hiding behind social media. It’s an idea that holds promise, not just for future elections but the health of our democracy.

Dinkin is president of the National Conflict Resolution Center, a San Diego-based group working to create solutions to challenging issues, including intolerance and incivility. To learn about NCRC’s programming, visit ncrconline.com