Why Replacing President Biden Now May Be So Difficult

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Let's face it: The recent presidential debate was a debacle. As my daughter, who has degrees in political science and public policy, put it to me in a text: If that were an SNL skit, it would have been hysterical. The sad thing is, of course, that it was not "Saturday Night Live.”

As I write this post, I am seeing countless calls for the Democratic National Committee to find a way to replace President Biden with a different candidate.

Of course, there are many challenges associated with making such a decision so late in an election cycle—and many of these are deeply rooted in our psychology. As described below, several psychological forces would make it difficult for the powers that be to replace President Biden as the Democratic candidate.

Sometimes the Manager Has to Relieve the Pitcher

Once while I was coaching Little League, one of our best pitchers was on the mound. He loaded the bases with no outs. He seemed nervous, and he ended up getting clobbered. I really liked this kid, though, and did not want him to have to get taken out of the game. After he gave up 4 runs—still with no outs—I realized that I had to do it. At first, he looked sad to be taken out. But ultimately he seemed relieved.

Maybe likening a Little League game to a presidential election is a bit extreme, so let's consider a professional example: Imagine it is Game 7 of the World Series and a pitcher has loaded the bases in the eighth inning with no outs. No one would be surprised if the manager replaced that pitcher. At that level, the developmental element is gone; winning is, in some sense, everything. Of course, a United States presidential election is closer to the latter example than to the former.

Why It Is So Hard to Make Important Changes Publicly

Several aspects of our psychology make it hard to make important changes—especially in public view. Here are several reasons why this is the case—and why the Democratic National Committee has a difficult situation on their hands.

Cognitive Dissonance Reduction. People have a hard time changing their minds because we don't like to hold conflicting cognitions, and so we tend to be motivated to avoid such a psychological state (Festinger & Carlsmith, 1959). Taking Biden out of the picture would require the Democratic leadership to essentially admit that he is not the best candidate. After supporting him for many years, and pushing the narrative all year that he remained a strong candidate able to lead a campaign, it may well cause many folks a lot of dissonance to essentially accept the idea that he is not actually up to par. These ideas are simply incompatible with one another. It is hard to reconcile the dissonant cognitions of (a) Biden is the best candidate with (b) Biden has shown himself not to be physically or cognitively up to the challenge.

Impression Management. Separate from what happens in one's head in terms of cognitive conflict, there are public impressions. Sometimes, people tend to stick to their guns not because of internal conflict, but because of how they might come across to others if they don't. In social psychology, we call this impression management (see Goffman, 1959). Changing one's position dramatically and publicly, in other words, can be what some call a bad look. If the Democrats replaced Biden at this late date, such an act could potentially weaken the party's public image, given that they had argued so strongly that the president was capable of retaining the office. It could make them look foolish, essentially—and no one wants that for themselves.

Belief Perseverance. In a broader sense, for a suite of reasons, changing deep-rooted and important beliefs is an often an excruciatingly difficult process. This is why people so often stick to attitudes, opinions, and beliefs that turn out to be objectively incorrect or simply questionable. We refer to this general phenomenon as belief perseverance (see Anderson, 1989). For a broad suite of reasons, it may be easier for members of Democratic leadership to simply stick with their deep-seated—and publicly expressed—belief that President Biden is the best candidate for the party. Again, changing one's mind—especially in piublic view—is a difficult thing for us humans to do.

Bottom Line

As someone who cares deeply about our shared future, I was alarmed by the debate, and it seems like President Biden's senior moments are now making headlines all around the world. Just as a manager sometimes has to relieve a pitcher during a really bad inning, perhaps a political party might have to relieve a candidate when he has demonstrated that he is no longer capable of the skills needed for the position. For the Democratic National Committee to pull President Biden out of the game now, lots of difficult decision-making would have to take place. Lots of cognitive dissonance reduction would also come into play. As would issues surrounding impression management and belief perseverance in general. This is not a little league game, this is the World Series. This is the future of the United States of America—and, in a sense, the entire world—that we are talking about.

It seems like this difficult decision may, at this point, be necessary. Only history will tell.