Environmental Unpredictability

Have you ever had one of those days? You wake up, get dressed, and go to work as usual. You have plans for what tasks to work on or which important meetings to attend in the morning, and then, an unpredictable incident happens. For example, your son's school calls and says he is very ill and might need to see a doctor. All of a sudden, your plans are disrupted, your priorities change, and you find yourself excessively draining your mental resources to execute a new plan. If this scenario describes you, you are not alone.

Environmental unpredictability, which refers to how harsh an environment can be across time and space (Ellis et al., 2009), is a topic that scientists in many fields, such as evolution and human development, have been researching. Although environmental factors such as temperature (in biological systems) or treatment from others (in social systems) can be expected to show variations across time and space, what makes environmental unpredictability worthy of attention is the absence of an expected pattern in change—thus, not knowing when we will face harshness (Young et al., 2020).

Based on this definition, we can say that unpredictability can be viewed as a specific type of stressor, and it is generally an undesirable feature of the external environment. Unpredictable environments can be problematic because humans have a general preference for reducing uncertainty and gaining control over their environments (Karasek, 1979; Kramer, 1999). Not knowing what will happen in a future state can challenge these preferences. Depending on the importance of the source of unpredictability, individuals may use their mental resources, such as attention or energy, to predict or cope with the unpredictability. When prolonged, such resources can be depleted and leave the individual in an exhausted or agitated state.

Environmental unpredictability applies to many domains of life. Research in different disciplines has identified it as an important parameter affecting how organisms develop. They view it as a form of adversity. For example, Spadoni et al. (2022) found that individuals who grew up in unpredictable environments in their early childhood experienced a higher degree of mental health issues later in life. Similarly, Szepsenwol et al. (2017) showed that participants with a history of unpredictable childhood were more likely to engage in friendship conflicts and intimate partner violence later in their lives.

I accept that unpredictability can be a stressor and can cause serious damage to individuals. However, we have no control over how harsh the external environment will be and when. What can we do in these situations? I have shared some suggestions below, but the list is not exhaustive.

1. Pay attention to see if a pattern exists - First, distinguish unawareness from unpredictability. Is there a clear absence of a pattern in your environment? Maybe there are cues, but you are not aware of them. Sometimes, we may perceive the environment as unpredictable, whereas another person with more experience, knowledge, or wisdom can make more accurate predictions. This may be due to our lack of information about the environment or lack of motivation to make a prediction. We can be cognitive misers (Stanovich, 2020) after all, and predicting the future can drain a lot of mental energy. We can collect our energy and try to see if we can capture any cues or patterns to predict the future of our environment. One of the most commonly cited methods in research is information seeking to reduce the uncertainty we experience about the environment (uncertainty reduction theory; Kramer, 1999). We may want to talk to others or do readings to gain information about our environments.

2. Expect the unexpected - Unpredictability can induce stress. Thus, to avoid the discomfort of stress, we may try avoiding stress. However, letting ourselves experience the stress in controlled environments can allow us to build response muscles and save us from bigger stresses in the future. We can engage in prediction exercises in a safe space at a time that works for us. We can choose a domain in our lives and imagine possibly harsh scenarios we may encounter in that domain at different times. For example, imagining ourselves being let go from work the next day, thinking about what we could do if we lose our health within a year, or more minor events such as imagining how rude customers can be allows us to visualize ourselves in a harsh situation. This exercise is commonly used in the safety context (i.e., safety imagination; Jagtman and Hale, 2007), and research generally supports this technique.

3. Plan - Once we allow ourselves to imagine possible harsh scenarios in our environment, we may want to follow up with a planning exercise. Planning can involve devising potential actions or remedies for possible yet unpredictable harsh environments. For example, many individuals choose to have a savings account for rainy days, such as an unpredictable job loss or increased health expenses. Planning can also be in a mental form. For example, knowing that your inconsistent boss can treat you poorly at any time, you may be prepared to show resilience. Such advance planning can allow you time and space to use your mental resources more efficiently and economically instead of overloading your mental resources all at once.