Biden’s poll numbers bounce out of State of the Union, Ukraine crisis
Despite these recent rises, the overall trend for Biden over his 14 months in office has been down.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is on the rise — for now — in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Biden’s State of the Union address last week.
Multiple surveys over the past week, including a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll out Tuesday, show a modest-to-moderate uptick in voters’ views of Biden’s job performance, up from his low-water mark earlier this year.
Forty-five percent of registered voters surveyed in the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll approve of the job Biden is doing, up 4 points over the past week. But a narrow majority, 51 percent, still disapproves of Biden’s job performance.
That result follows two other post-State of the Union polls also showing a Biden bounce. An NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll released late last week showed a 7-point rise in Biden’s approval rating among registered voters, from 40 percent in February to 47 percent in the new survey. Biden’s bump was smaller in a Quinnipiac University poll out Monday: from 38 percent last week to 40 percent in the new poll.
Despite these recent rises, the overall trend for Biden over his 14 months in office has been down, driven by Covid resurgences and the drag of inflation on the strengthening economy. Covid’s wane continues, but gasoline prices, already climbing thanks to inflationary pressures, are spiking after Russia’s invasion.
In the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, Biden’s gains came mostly from Democratic voters, suggesting the Ukraine crisis and his nationally televised address united elements of the president’s base but made few inroads with other voters. His approval rating among Democrats rose 7 points over the past week but was essentially unchanged among Republicans and independents.
Still, the crisis in Eastern Europe offers Biden a chance to reset his presidency as his party faces a challenging midterm election this fall. Slightly more voters in the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, 46 percent, approve of the job Biden is doing handling the conflict between Ukraine and Russia than disapprove (42 percent).
“It’s not unusual for presidents to see their numbers improve immediately following a major address like a State of the Union, or for the so-called ‘rally around the flag’ effect to provide a similar boost when the country is facing a security threat,” Cameron Easley, the senior politics editor for Morning Consult, told POLITICO Playbook on Tuesday.
But, Easley added, such bounces tend to be fleeting.
The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted March 4-6, surveying 2,005 registered voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2 percentage points.
Morning Consult is a global data intelligence company, delivering insights on what people think in real time by surveying tens of thousands across the globe every single day.
More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents: Toplines | Crosstabs