Florida’s recent spike in new COVID-19 infections is driven by upticks in all age groups younger than 65, and also by an exponential jump in variant cases which are circulating around the state, health officials say.
But among seniors, the age group with the highest vaccination rates so far, infection rates are flat or even lower than they were two weeks ago, said Dr. Jason Salemi, a University of South Florida public health researcher.
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var e in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var t=document.getElementById(“datawrapper-chart-“+e)||document.querySelector(“iframe[src*='”+e+”‘]”);t&&(t.style.height=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][e]+”px”)}}))}();
Among the state’s 10 most populous counties, Orange County is seeing the steepest increases compared to two weeks ago, including a 62% jump among college-age people and 35% more infections among people 25 to 49 years old, Salemi said.
Orange also saw the biggest climb in infections among people 50 to 64 years old, with a 37% increase, he said, as the Miami Herald had earlier reported.
“Although we’re seeing an uptick in cases, the only age groups that we’re not seeing a pronounced uptick is the seniors,” he said. “In past surges… you saw the increases in the younger age group first, and it took a cycle to find the vulnerable population.”
Hopefully, he said, this time the prevalence of vaccines among older people “will protect them.”
Dr. Raul Pino, the local state health officer for the Florida Department of Health in Orange County, said the county has also seen a modest increase in hospitalizations, with about eight more documented.
“We continue to have this dichotomy of going very low in the older segment of the population that has been vaccinated and a little bit of an increase in the younger segment of the population that hasn’t been vaccinated, but is very socially active,” he said.
County officials are hopeful to put a dent in infections among younger people when vaccinations open to Floridians 18 and older on Monday. The county portal for appointments at the Orange County Convention Center is due to open at 9 a.m. Friday with 8,000 slots.
Previously, appointments have been booked within minutes of opening, so it’s recommended people pre-register beforehand at ocfl.net/vaccine.
Cases of COVID-19 variants have continued to spread statewide, nearly tripling in the past two weeks alone and far outpacing any other state in the nation.
According to data from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reported variant cases in Florida have soared from 912 in mid-March to 2,415 as of Thursday — including 49 cases of what’s known to scientists as the P.1. strain, first detected in Brazil.
In Orange County, 23 more variant cases were reported Thursday, bringing the total count to 105. Most of those are the B.1.1.7, commonly referred to as the U.K. variant, and so far the county hasn’t discovered the South African variant, which has shown some signs of being resistant to vaccines.
The variants — significant genetic mutations of the coronavirus — are considered crucial to understanding how and where the disease spreads, whether the current vaccines can stop it and potentially how to treat the infections it does cause.
Scientists already know that some strains, such as the one first detected in the United Kingdom, are much more contagious than the original.
That strain — the B.1.1.7 — is already circulating widely in Florida. The CDC reports it accounts for 2,351 of the variants cases reported, although the actual number is presumed to be much higher. Statewide, only .5% of all coronavirus test results are selected for genetic sequencing — a lower rate than much of the nation.
“It’s very important that we understand which variants are circulating in our community and respond accordingly,” said Dr. Wes Walker, director of AdventHealth’s genomics program, which announced Thursday it had started doing its own genetic sequencing of coronavirus cases.
“If you’ve got something that’s spreading potentially faster, you’re going to be able to predict that there may be more infections,” Walker said. “And I think, ultimately, there will be evidence in terms of how different variants respond potentially to different treatments” – although, he added, that work is still in progress.
The hospital system has partnered with Helix, a leading genomics testing company, to study the COVID-19 variants. Walker said the company offers “one of the most sophisticated labs” in the nation for sequencing the DNA or the virus.
The first results are not yet available, he added.
In March, the Orlando Sentinel sued the Florida Department of Health for withholding detailed information on the variants, including the number of variant cases in each county and whether the cases have been fatal. The state released an initial round on data the following day, March 19, but officials have not provided updates since.
The case still has to go before a judge.
At this point, the best way to stop the mutations, Walker said, is to halt the spread of all strains of the virus using the same approach doctors have long recommended.
“The best way to combat the virus is by following the evidence-based recommendations that we know work today, and that would vaccination, masking and social-distancing,” he said.
rygillespie@orlandosentinel.com, ksantich@orlandosentinel.com
