Yes, Tornado Alley has shifted to the east, veteran meteorologist says; reasons less clear

(TND) — Another weather study shows Tornado Alley has shifted to the east.

The hot zones, or at least the hottest of zones, have moved from Oklahoma, Kansas and north Texas to Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky.

Why?

“I don't know. I really don't know,” veteran meteorologist James Spann said Monday. “Of course, the answer a lot of people will immediately come up with is climate change. Maybe. Maybe not. You can't just throw that out there without any data.”

Spann, the chief meteorologist at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, Alabama, wasn’t involved with the study that was recently published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

But he knows the experts who were: Tim Coleman, Rich Thompson and Greg Forbes.

And Spann has no dispute with their conclusion that Tornado Alley has moved from the Great Plains to the South and Midwest.

“These guys are brilliant, and sure, the research is absolutely valid,” Spann said.

A similarly good paper in 2018 from Victor Gensini and Harold Brooks “basically said the same thing,” Spann added.

But an important addition from the new paper shows the impact of cold-season tornadoes.

Coleman, Thompson and Forbes found that tornadoes have trended away from the warm season, especially the summer, and toward the cold season since 1951.

“If you ask me today, and for a long time, when is the tornado season where I am, and I'm in Alabama, November through May, November through May,” Spann said. “And there's a perception they always happen in spring.”

The researchers charted EF1 and larger tornadoes and broke the data into two 35-year periods: 1951-1985 and 1986-2020.

The overall increase in tornadoes in the eastern U.S. is due to an increase in cold season tornadoes, they said.

Tornadoes in the western U.S. decreased 25% from the earlier time period to the more recent one, while tornadoes in the eastern U.S. increased 12%.

The Washington Post noted a 40% reduction in tornadoes in the traditional Tornado Alley – eastern Kansas through Oklahoma and north Texas.

But that should not be interpreted as Oklahoma and Kansas being safe now from tornadoes.

Oklahoma’s record from 1950 to present for the number of tornadoes came in 2019, with 149.

And Spann said his area has been quieter than normal this year.

“Perception and reality can be two different things,” Spann said.

Folks in the South have always known that they live in tornado country.

But the twisters over the Great Plains get more attention “because that's where they're sexy, that you can see them, that all the chasers are there, the videos are tremendous,” Spann said.

In the south, they’re more likely to be rain-wrapped, happen at night or be obscured by hills and trees.

“We're in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains here, and you have a lot of visibility problems,” Spann said. “And on top of that, the terrain can actually enhance updrafts and create microclimates where you have enhanced probabilities of tornadoes where you think you normally wouldn't.”

The density of manufactured homes in the South is also a problem, he said.

Spann said mobile homes are “wonderful, affordable housing,” but they’re dangerous during a tornado.

Storm hype and “siren mentality” are other problems.

Weather officials should strive for a higher probability of detection and a lower false alarm ratio, he said.

We don’t want officials to cry wolf, because we want people to pay attention during a real emergency.

And Spann said people should not rely on tornado sirens or cellphones.

Don’t expect to “hear some World War II air raid siren 5 miles away to let you know a tornado’s coming,” he warned.

And cellphone service can stop working in a storm. Or you might not get alerted if your phone is in sleep mode.

A “good old fashioned weather radio,” which costs as little as $15 to $30, can be a lifesaver, he said.

“By golly, it's like having a smoke alarm in your house for a tornado. How cool is that?” he said. “And it will wake you up. It will wake your family up. And so, they're absolutely critical. Just critical.”