The One Thing Voters Remember About Trump

By Christine Zhang, Sean Catangui and Alex Lemonides

May 10, 2024

The 2024 election will be in part a battle over memories, perhaps more than in previous presidential races because it’s a rare rematch. And memories aren’t necessarily static — what is happening today can influence those memories.

Two of the biggest U.S. news events in decades, the Covid pandemic and the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol, are seldom the first thing on people’s minds when it comes to their memories of the Trump administration, for example, according to an April Times/Siena survey of registered voters nationwide.

When asked to describe the one thing they remembered most from Donald J. Trump’s presidency, only 5 percent of respondents referred to Jan. 6, and only 4 percent to Covid.

“It’s the salience of issues today that color the memories that people have of Trump,” said John Sides, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt.

The importance of issues of the moment may explain the large number of responses about the economy as opposed to Covid or Jan. 6, which have largely receded from the headlines.

Thinking back to when Donald Trump was president, what one thing do you remember most about Donald Trump’s presidency?

39%

Trump’s behavior

The economy

24%

Immigration

9%

Jan. 6

5%

5%

Foreign policy

Covid

4%

39%

Trump’s behavior

The economy

24%

Immigration

9%

Jan. 6

5%

Foreign policy

5%

Covid

4%

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024.

Top six categories shown.

Because of recency bias — a tendency to focus on recent events instead of past ones — people typically feel their current problems most sharply. And they tend to have a warmer recall of past experiences, which can lead to a sense of nostalgia. Like past presidents, Mr. Trump has enjoyed a higher approval rating of his time in office in retrospect.

Voters who shared negative memories of the Trump years overwhelmingly mentioned aspects of his behavior and personality, while the bulk of positive memories were about the economy.

Over a third of voters shared a positive memory. The same percentage shared a negative one. (Some memories could not be clearly categorized.) The Trump and Biden campaigns are sure to try to emphasize and remind voters of the memories favorable to them.

Here’s a closer look at some of the respondents’ most common memories of Mr. Trump’s years in office.

About two-thirds of the comments about Mr. Trump’s behavior and personality came from voters who said they would support President Biden in November.

Voters tended to speak about Mr. Trump’s personality traits in general terms, rather than recalling specific memories. These respondents were most likely using the question as a vehicle to express their views of Mr. Trump, in addition to or instead of calling to mind a specific memory, Mr. Sides said. Their answers are “a mixture of opinion and, maybe, memory,” he said.

For example, some referred to him as a liar. Others said they remembered him as sexist or racist. Dozens of voters simply replied “chaos.”

Biden supporters were far more likely to cite Mr. Trump’s behavior and personality than any specific issue. Some of them may have spoken about Mr. Trump generally because of the multitude of controversies during his time in office, Mr. Sides said. “If you don’t like Trump and your memory of Trump is essentially a negatively colored memory, it’s easier to sum it up in this fairly broad way by just critiquing him as a person,” he said.

Relatively few voters cited positive memories of Mr. Trump’s behavior and personality. Those who did typically used a common refrain: that he “got things done” or “did what he set out to do.”

This could, again, be a way for voters to express an opinion without a specific memory.

It could also reflect a persona that Mr. Trump has honed at rallies and in campaign communications, said Seth Masket, a professor of political science at the University of Denver. These recollections are not necessarily “bound by reality,” he said. “They’re images. They’re reputations.”

Voters who cited the economy as their top memory largely looked back on the Trump years as a time of prosperity. A large share of these comments came from Trump supporters, many of whom said, generically, “the economy.”

“A lot of that is kind of a response to what people perceive as a not good economy now,” Mr. Masket said. Memories of a thriving Trump-era economy could reflect the salience of lingering inflation as an issue faced by President Biden today.

Presidents don’t have as much influence over the economy as many voters assume. For example, most rich countries like the U.S. experienced inflation spikes and then declines in inflation as the pandemic wound down, and economists have generally praised the U.S. recovery. But many voters are typically worried about economic signals right in front of them in the moment.

The many responses mentioning lower gas prices under Mr. Trump, for example, were a way for voters to draw a contrast between the two candidates. “In 2020, when no one could travel, gas prices were very low,” Mr. Masket said. Higher gas prices were “one of the most notable features of inflation” during the pandemic recovery, he added.

The Biden administration has grappled with the surge in illegal crossings along the border with Mexico, making it an issue with higher salience. Trump supporters who remembered Mr. Trump’s immigration politics tended to cite his promises to build a wall along the border and his hard-line approach to border security, things they saw as standing in contrast with Mr. Biden’s approach.

The small number of Biden supporters in the survey whose main memory of Mr. Trump was about immigration almost all mentioned Trump-era policies that led to family separations at the border.

The fading of Covid and Jan. 6 from people’s memories about Mr. Trump — less than 10 percent of survey respondents mentioned them — is still surprising, Mr. Masket said. “In many ways, the most recent things about his presidency are not the things that people remember about him,” he said.

Voters may be loath to revisit unpleasant memories of the pandemic, he said. This helps Mr. Trump in some ways. “Trump almost gets a pass,” he said, adding, “He just gets, ‘Well, the first three years were good and the fourth year wasn’t his fault.’”

Thoughts of Covid and Jan. 6 could have informed other answers, even if voters didn’t cite them specifically, Mr. Sides said. For instance, voters could have been thinking of these events when giving responses mentioning Mr. Trump’s lies or chaos and division during his time in office.

A handful of voters in the survey, mostly Trump supporters, looked back on the Trump years as a time of peace. This may be because of the two major international conflicts — the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war — that are dominant in the public consciousness today. As with responses about the economy and immigration, these responses may reflect an implicit critique of Mr. Biden’s handling of foreign policy.

A few voters — both Biden and Trump supporters — specifically mentioned North Korea in their top memory of Mr. Trump as president, in particular his meeting with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, at the Demilitarized Zone.

More About the Times/Siena Poll

You Ask, We Answer: How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted

The New York Times/Siena College Poll has earned a reputation for accuracy and transparency. But as with any poll, there are limits to just how much you can derive.

By The New York Times

April 13, 2024

There is time for perceptions to shift before November, and for other issues to take hold. (The survey was conducted before the start of Mr. Trump’s Manhattan criminal trial.)

In the battle over memories, the Biden campaign will be trying to remind voters of some older ones that reflect poorly on Mr. Trump.

In April, Mr. Biden shared a video on social media of Mr. Trump’s suggestion to inject disinfectant during the early days of the pandemic. And on Tuesday, the Biden campaign released a digital ad that interspersed Mr. Trump’s criticism of immigrants along with images of crying women and children.

“If people are mostly thinking about the economy, that seems to be helping Trump right now, and what the Biden team is going to try and do is keep raising other issues, keep raising, you know, Jan. 6 as an issue or chaos and Covid as an issue,” Mr. Masket said.