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Phoenix’s Blue Wave Pushes Arizona Toward Biden

By Keith Collins, Ford Fessenden, Lazaro Gamio, Rich Harris, John Keefe, Denise Lu, Eleanor Lutz, Amy Schoenfeld Walker, Derek Watkins and Karen Yourish

Analyzing the Vote in Battleground States
Ariz. Fla. Ga. Mich. N.C. Pa. Texas Wis.
2016

+3.5 Trump

2020

+0.4 Biden

Current statewide margin

The presidential race in Arizona remained too close to call on Tuesday evening, but Joseph R. Biden Jr. held a lead in the state’s biggest city. Phoenix and its suburbs swung to the left, making it possible that Mr. Biden wins Arizona, even as other areas shifted to President Trump.

Shift from 2016 in Phoenix area

Shift from 2016 in Phoenix area

ARIZ.

Arrows show shift from 2016

toward Trump or Biden in each

precinct.

Phoenix

Glendale

Scottsdale

Phoenix

Mesa

Tempe

Shift from 2016 in Phoenix area

ARIZ.

Arrows show shift from 2016 toward Trump or Biden in each precinct.

Phoenix

Glendale

Scottsdale

Phoenix

Mesa

Tempe

Arrows show shift from 2016 toward Trump or Biden in each precinct.

Glendale

Scottsdale

Phoenix

Mesa

Maricopa County comprises 60 percent of the state’s voters and is home to Phoenix. Mr. Trump narrowly won the county in 2016, and support for Republicans has slipped there in recent elections. Voters there supported Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat, in the 2018 Senate race.

Margin of victory in Arizona counties since 2008

Each line shows margins in one county over time

Within Maricopa County, Mr. Biden won in most precincts with a majority Hispanic population, though often with smaller margins than Democrats saw in 2016.

Mr. Biden also won in many precincts that skewed younger.

The shift to the left in Maricopa County has helped put Mr. Biden ahead statewide. His reportedly strong support among Native Americans in the state has also been a benefit.

PhoenixTucson

Margin in 2020

Circles show the size of lead in each county.

Biden

Trump

Still, as of Tuesday evening, Mr. Biden led by only about half a percentage point. A Democratic candidate for president has not won Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996 — and he was the first Democrat to win there since Harry S. Truman in 1948.