How Biden Flipped Pennsylvania and Won the Election
Pa.2016
+0.7 Trump
2020
+0.7 Biden
Current statewide margin
Four days after Election Day, Joseph R. Biden Jr. was declared the winner in Pennsylvania, flipping the state blue as counties east of the Appalachian Mountains shifted left. The battleground state’s 20 electoral votes were enough to decisively tip the election in Mr. Biden’s favor and propel him to victory.
Mr. Biden’s largest vote margins were in dense population centers, including Philadelphia and its suburbs, and Allegheny County, which is home to Pittsburgh. The tally of absentee ballots in parts of those counties delayed the results, keeping news organizations from calling Pennsylvania for several days.
Margin in 2020
Biden
Trump
Mr. Trump, who four years ago became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since 1988, was able to build on his 2016 win in counties with more lower-income households and those with more white residents who did not have a college education.
Shift in county margins from 2016
Median household income
Higher income
Lower income
Share of white population
with no college degree
Fewer college educated
More college educated
In Philadelphia County, Mr. Biden drew strong support in predominantly Black precincts. Turning out enough Black voters — Democrats’ core supporters — to counter Mr. Trump’s margins with rural white voters had been seen as critical for Mr. Biden, especially after Hillary Clinton’s lackluster showing with Black voters in 2016.
Though Philadelphia County, a Democratic stronghold, voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Biden, it swung toward Mr. Trump by more than 4 percentage points, compared with 2016.
Margin of victory in Pennsylvania counties since 2008
Each line shows margins in one county over time
In Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties, Mr. Trump’s wins at the precinct level were almost entirely in areas with higher shares of white voters.
Over all, Mr. Trump fared better in Philadelphia than he did in 2016, probably the result of further shifts to the right among white voters, but also shifts in his favor in neighborhoods where Hispanic people make up a majority of the population.
Another possible factor: While Mr. Trump beat his 2016 vote totals, Mr. Biden appeared to garner fewer overall votes in Philadelphia than Mrs. Clinton did in 2016. With almost 11,000 mail ballots left to count Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Biden had received about 14,000 fewer votes than Mrs. Clinton’s final tally in the city of 584,025.
Shifts in vote margin from 2016
Northeast
Philadelphia
Northwest
Philadelphia
North
Philadelphia
Kensington
Philadelphia
Camden, N.J.
West
Philadelphia
Center City
Arrows show shift
from 2016 towards
Trump or Biden
in each precinct
PA.
Philadelphia
South
Philadelphia
Northeast
Philadelphia
Northwest
Philadelphia
North
Philadelphia
Kensington
Philadelphia
Camden, N.J.
West
Philadelphia
Center City
PA.
Philadelphia
South
Philadelphia
Arrows show shift
from 2016 towards
Trump or Biden
in each precinct
Northeast
Philadelphia
Northwest
Philadelphia
North
Philadelphia
Kensington
Philadelphia
Camden, N.J.
West
Philadelphia
Center City
PA.
Philadelphia
South
Philadelphia
Arrows show shift
from 2016 towards
Trump or Biden
in each precinct
Analyzing the Vote in Battleground States
Arizona
Phoenix pushes Arizona toward Biden. ›
Florida
The state shifts further to the right. ›
Georgia
A tight race comes down to Metro Atlanta. ›
Michigan
White voters shifted to Biden. ›
North Carolina
Trump fights to keep the state red. ›
Texas
Hispanic voters deliver a win for Trump. ›