TORONTO — The end of an exhilarating stretch encapsulated how far away the Houston Astros are from feeling complete. A stirring comeback seemed sabotaged before it even began, the byproduct of a battered starting rotation in dire need of reinforcements.
General manager Dana Brown’s bullishness may have already signaled it, but a 17-8 June cemented Houston’s status as buyers at the trade deadline. Dreams of a first-base blockbuster may dominate the discourse, but the Astros’ most apparent need is a starting pitcher to fortify their patchwork rotation.
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Tuesday’s 7-6 loss against the Toronto Blue Jays accentuated it. A lineup still missing Kyle Tucker managed six runs and seven hits during the game’s final six innings. Two of the club’s lower-leverage relievers teamed to tame Toronto’s bats across four hitless frames, stabilizing a game Houston’s starter allowed to spiral.
“The league adjusts really fast,” Spencer Arrighetti said afterward, “and I need to adjust at the same rate.”
In his 15th major-league start, Arrighetti survived four innings and surrendered seven runs. That Houston even clawed back is commendable, but expecting it to be routine is ridiculous.
Spencer Arrighetti tonight in Toronto: 4 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 39 swings, 6 whiffs. His ERA is 6.13. Luis Contreras has the fifth.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) July 3, 2024
Grousing over manager Joe Espada’s tactical decisions during the ninth inning overlooks the opportunity Houston still had — Jose Altuve at the plate with the tying run in scoring position — while ignoring the bigger issue threatening the Astros’ pursuit of a playoff spot. Their rotation has a 3.98 ERA since May 1, but the number isn’t indicative of the minuscule margin for error or future hazards that lie in plain sight.
The Astros have four healthy starters on their 40-man roster. Two of them are navigating their first full seasons in a major-league rotation, including Arrighetti. He now owns a 6.53 ERA after 69 innings, an uneven stretch that has alternated flashes of brilliance with brutal lessons of life in the big leagues.
“These guys adjust really fast and they punish mistakes at a really high rate,” Arrighetti said. “I’ve seen that when I don’t throw mistake pitches when I’m very competitive in the strike zone and I feel like I’m executing with my spin weapons, I can compete. I can do that at this level.”
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Arrighetti will continue receiving chances to prove it. Houston has no other choice. Three of its starters have already had season-ending surgery. Justin Verlander remains on the injured list with a vague neck injury. Arrighetti is a last line of defense for an organization out of pitching, the fourth starter in a rotation that must now rely on bullpen games every fifth day.
Only after Jake Bloss returns from a shoulder injury will Houston’s rotation have its full complement of five starters. Bloss bypassed Triple A and has made nine starts above A-ball. Fourteen months ago, he pitched against Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament. Now, he’s pitching during a playoff pursuit.
Arrighetti is a symptom of a season-long problem, perhaps the wrong person to paint as a poster child of Houston’s shortcomings. He’s done nothing but accept a promotion and fulfill a dream.
Thrust into an impossible situation, Arrighetti has acquitted himself well on and off the mound. Six days ago, he struck out 10 Colorado Rockies across seven spectacular innings. Two starts before it, he collected four outs and ceded seven runs to a Detroit Tigers lineup with the sport’s fourth-lowest OPS
“Everybody can agree that the peaks and valleys have been very far apart,” Arrighetti said. “Obviously the goal is to stay as close to the middle or as close to those peaks as we can. In general, I feel like I’ve learned a lot. I feel like I’ve made some good adjustments. I think that even today there was things I’ve done better than some of my other outings.”
It is unfair to diminish the incremental progress Arrighetti is making. His development is crucial for future Astros rotations. This season will provide perhaps the biggest lesson of his baseball life and Arrighetti should reap its benefits in the future.
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Still, the present is more paramount. Each of Houston’s remaining 77 games will present higher stakes than any other July or August across this franchise’s golden era. Asking Arrighetti or anyone of his ilk to start some of them is a sobering thought, one Brown can erase during the trade deadline.
On Sunday afternoon, Brown brought out every baseball executive’s tired trope, telling the team’s pregame radio show that Luis Garcia’s expected return from Tommy John surgery will be like “a trade” in August.
Garcia will make his second minor-league rehab start on Thursday at Double-A Corpus Christi and remains on schedule to rejoin the Astros after the All-Star break. Lance McCullers Jr. is roughly five weeks behind him in his recovery from flexor tendon surgery.
Both men will provide experience and ability that Arrighetti and Bloss do not have, but counting on two players recovering from reconstructive surgeries to work deep into games and be effective is a gamble Houston can’t take.
Neither Arrighetti nor Ronel Blanco has thrown more than 125 innings in any professional season. Arrighetti has already logged 77 1/3 this year. Blanco, whose brilliance this season can’t be overstated, will enter his start Wednesday with 90 1/3.
Expecting either man to maintain his effectiveness as workloads increase is foolish. The Astros encountered the same issue last season with Hunter Brown and J.P. France, both of whom threw more innings than any season in their lives and fatigued in the second half as a result.
Blanco and Hunter Brown have blossomed into two of baseball’s most underappreciated pitchers, perhaps the only two reasons this rotation hasn’t completely cratered. Verlander’s eventual return will add a future Hall of Famer back atop the rotation. Framber Valdez is a two-time All-Star with postseason success.
Even if the Astros don’t make an addition at the deadline, a framework still exists for a formidable playoff rotation. Whether this group of starters can help them clinch a spot is a legitimate question.
(Photo: Mark Blinch / Getty Images)
