Let’s pretend, for a moment, that someone other than John Henry owned the Boston Red Sox, and that owner was hellbent on accelerating the team’s stunning progress instead of fretting over how it might stall.
What’s the first thing that owner would do? Throw Craig Counsell money at Alex Cora. That’s right, ignore the talk from Cora about not wanting to negotiate during the season. Drop a $40 million offer on him, and see how quickly he snaps to attention.
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What’s the next thing our owner would do? State, unequivocally, that the Red Sox are buyers, further persuading Cora to stick around. Sure, there is a chance the team could collapse in the next month, as demonstrated by its two lopsided losses to the San Diego Padres over the weekend. No matter. The expanded playoffs are a gift that keeps on giving for teams that actually try, a six-month lifeline.
Season-ending injuries to shortstop Trevor Story and right-handers Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock should have crushed the Red Sox, whose $171 million Opening Day payroll was the franchise’s lowest since 2014. Instead, the team is 44-39, 1 1/2 games back in the race for the third wild card, thanks to its improved pitching and wave of athletic young talent. And first baseman Triston Casas, who has been out since late April with torn cartilage in his left rib cage, is expected back after the All-Star break.
Cora made his feelings known last week, telling reporters, “I know we’ve been talking about the wild card and all that stuff — hey, let’s get greedy. … This brand of baseball, I think we can maintain how we’re playing. Let’s not settle for the third wild card, let’s go higher and see where the season takes us.”
In today’s game, where teams constantly hedge, staring at their playoff odds and hoarding their beloved prospects, such talk is unusually bold. For the Red Sox, who were largely inert the past two deadlines under Chaim Bloom — “Honestly, we didn’t get better,” Cora said. “We just stayed the same.” — it’s practically a radical manifesto.
Bloom, who since has been replaced by Craig Breslow, deserves credit for developing much of the young core, and also a trade for which he was heavily criticized — Christian Vázquez to the Houston Astros for Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez. For all anyone knows, he might have pushed ownership to spend this past offseason, sensing the team was ready to move forward. Instead, the Red Sox veered away from chairman Tom Werner’s pledge to go “full throttle,” largely waffling again.
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Henry, who rarely gives interviews, recently offered the Financial Times insight into his thought process, making two particularly outrageous remarks.
No. 1: “Because fans expect championships almost annually, they easily become frustrated and are not going to buy into what the odds actually are: one in 20 or one in 30.”
No. 2: “(Werner’s comments) overshadowed every other word, paragraph and interview of the winter because it reaches so deeply into the false beliefs that many fans and media have that you should mortgage the future each year for the present.”
No. 1 is false. The odds for the Red Sox should not be one in 20 or one in 30, not with the advantages they possess as a high-revenue club.
No. 2 also is false. Hardly any fans and media believe teams should mortgage the future for the present. If anything, too many fans and media are conditioned to accept the opposite, buying into prospect hype, “trusting the process,” applauding their favorite teams for not spending.
The Red Sox ended the “Curse of the Bambino” under Henry and won four World Series in 15 years. Those accomplishments, while considerable, do not entitle him to baseball’s version of diplomatic immunity. Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski, dismissed shortly after constructing championship clubs, received no such grace. The players on those teams were not awarded lifetime contracts, either.
In an interview Saturday, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy pledged to be more transparent about the team’s intentions at the deadline, saying, “I need to do a better job of being crystal clear about the direction and where we’re headed.” The Red Sox, like many teams, have not decided whether to buy, sell or do both. But chances are, they will be in the same undefined position they were at the past two deadlines. Their playoff odds at the moment are approximately 32 percent.
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No rational fan would expect the Red Sox to make a go-for-broke trade involving one of their top three prospects, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, outfielder Roman Anthony or catcher Kyle Teel. But Breslow, in a Q&A with The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey, acknowledged the system is deep in middle infielders. Surely, the Red Sox can find a deal or two that would help them in both the present and future.
The team’s No. 1 need is a starting pitcher — someone like, ahem, Chris Sale, traded by the Red Sox in late December for infielder Vaughn Grissom, who has been injured for much of the season. The Sox’s rotation ERA has increased from 2.00 in March/April to 4.49 in May to 5.22 in June. And the team’s depth probably is not sufficient to withstand another injury to a starter.
The middle infield is another area of potential improvement. A rental shortstop would be ideal with Story expected back next season and Mayer close to the majors. None is likely to be available, but Angels second baseman Luis Rengifo, who leads the AL with a .317 batting average, would be a useful addition. And he is under club control through 2025.
For all the talk of moving Kenley Jansen, the Red Sox should only do it if they can find a team willing to trade a potential free-agent starter for a potential free-agent reliever. The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler, coming off Tommy John surgery and currently out with right hip inflammation, might not be the right fit, but that would be the idea. An even better idea would be to keep Jansen and trade for a starter in some other way. If the Sox are serious about contending, they should not trust Liam Hendriks, coming off Tommy John surgery, to close.
And that’s the thing: The Sox should be serious about contending. Their average attendance is down only slightly from last season, in large part because fans treasure the Fenway experience. But if the team is in reasonable position, trades of potential free agents such as Jansen, outfielder Tyler O’Neill and right-hander Nick Pivetta would further alienate the fan base. They also would seal Cora’s departure, which shouldn’t be inevitable, but sure seems that way.
“The best way to make a statement is to do the right things across the entire baseball operation. Invest in every area of the operation — scouting, player development, analytics, the big-league level,” Kennedy said. “I know the focus can be on dollars spent. We understand that. We accept that. But the best way to make a statement is do what we’ve done often over our last 23 years — (play) October baseball.”
Fair enough, but it’s ridiculous this discussion is even taking place. The Red Sox don’t hedge with their ticket prices, which are among the highest in the game. They didn’t hedge in their spending from 2004 to 2020, when they ran 17 straight top-five payrolls. And with the team again on the rise, they should not be hedging in their desire to win.
Make a statement. Try.
(Top photo of John Henry: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
