The knockout stages of any tournament is where the jeopardy really kicks in.
While Euro 2024’s strange group-stage system saw only eight of the 24 starting nations exit the tournament after two weeks of action, it now becomes do or die in the last 16.
That means the chances are that at some stage in the knockout rounds England will, once again, have to face their demons in a penalty shootout — and judging by their group-stage displays that seems highly likely.
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Until recently, there has been a long history of England exiting tournaments after spot-kick failure, where they repeatedly failed the ultimate test of character and technique. While under Gareth Southgate there have been some successes, like the last-16 shootout victory over Colombia at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, but a familiar sense of dread still lingers after penalties decided the outcome of the last Euros final at Wembley when Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Bukayo Saka all failed to score from 12 yards against Italy.
But this time, it could be different. This time, England have some individuals who have shown before that they can be lethal from the spot. They have penalty experts Ivan Toney, Harry Kane and Cole Palmer.
But how do you utilise such talent? In what order do you send them out?
Here, The Athletic looks at all 26 of Southgate’s options and puts them in the order of how we think they should make that long walk from the centre circle.
The England squad’s penalty record
The below graphic shows the penalty record of each member of England’s Euro 2024 squad.
Their totals are made up of penalties taken for their countries in competitive matches and friendlies, as well as in senior competitive matches in their respective club careers.
Five players aren’t featured as they have yet to take a senior penalty that matches these criteria.
Ranking England’s penalty-takers
1. Harry Kane (76/86 scored)
Yes, the captain should lead the way. With an incredible record (Kane has scored 76 of the 86 penalties he has taken), including a perfect eight from eight for Bayern Munich last season, Kane is the reliable option to get the ball rolling positively and set the tone for those who follow.
The last time he missed was in the quarter-final of the last World Cup in Qatar against France when he went where he regularly aims, to the ‘keeper’s right and high into the corner. On that occasion, he overcooked his effort. Usually, the outcome when Kane takes that kind of spot kick is a goal, as it was here in the Champions League against Real Madrid last season.
In fact, he had executed the same penalty to perfection for England’s equaliser earlier in that World Cup game.
2. Cole Palmer (11/11 scored)
With a perfect record of 11 from 11, Palmer has shown that he has nerves of steel.
The remarkable thing about the Chelsea man is that nothing seems to faze him. He may be aged just 22 but he was bold enough to take the plunge and leave Manchester City in search of more opportunities a year ago and he has already become the main man at Stamford Bridge.
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He seems to be a player who thrives on the pressure of the big moments, like his last-minute penalty to snatch a point against Manchester City in an astonishing 4-4 draw at Stamford Bridge, when he had to wait for nearly three minutes before taking his kick, which was testament to his temperament.
He has also already opened his England account before the tournament against Bosnia & Herzegovina with a confident finish into the bottom corner.
3. Ivan Toney (37/40 scored)
The third of the big hitters. Thomas Frank has hailed Toney as the best penalty-taker in the world. With a strike rate of 93 per cent, with 37 conversions from 40 attempts, he certainly is impressive from 12 yards.
He has a unique style: no run-up, one small step and one big step, where his striking leg seems to pause in mid-air, waiting for the ‘keeper to commit himself to one way. Then, a quick adjustment to ensure the ball sails into the opposite corner.
It has become a familiar sight for Brentford fans, and England also saw Toney’s efficiency from the spot in the friendly against Belgium at Wembley in March (see below).
The last time he missed a penalty was in April 2023 against Newcastle and before that, you have to go back to his Peterborough United days, in 2018, when he missed one against Barnsley.
4. Bukayo Saka (13/15 scored)
Saka suffered a lot after his miss against Italy in the last Euros but he has shown incredible character to bounce back and continue to be the man Arsenal send up in vital moments.
Last season, he scored six from six from the spot and he hasn’t changed his technique. He still has the little stuttering start, where he seems to be run on the spot like a cartoon character, before striding to the ball and usually whipping it into the bottom corner to the ‘keeper’s left, as he tried to do in the Euro final shootout only for Gianluigi Donnarumma to guess the right way.
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Now, he also has the calmness to stroke the ball into the opposite corner if the ‘keeper guesses the right way, as he does in this example against Bournemouth.
After what happened three years ago, Saka is due some redemption on the big stage.
5. Jude Bellingham (5/5 scored)
Bellingham may have only taken five penalties previously but he has scored with each and every one, and if you wanted someone to step up to take the fifth penalty with everything on the line, then the Real Madrid midfielder is the man.
There is no doubt about Bellingham’s self-confidence and that he relishes the big moments, as he proved so many times last season with Real Madrid.
He has his own technique, involving four steps back and three side steps across, like England rugby legend Jonny Wilkinson in his prime, before a nerveless run-up and finish — as he showed against Manchester City in the Champions League last season.
Bellingham enjoys being England’s new main man and loves responsibility, so he would be a prime candidate.
6. Jarrod Bowen (8/11 scored)
When it gets to the sudden-death scenario, the crucial question would be who wants to take one. The sixth penalty isn’t for a nervous soul. Converting is about belief as well as a faultless technique.
Bowen seems to have both and as his record shows he is handy from the spot.
He has taken 11 in his career and three have been saved. Bowen always hits the target. He has a standard technique and uses power, coupled with some precision too, as shown by this successful conversion against Blackburn Rovers in the Carabao Cup. Aynsley Pears wasn’t getting close to that finish.
7. Ollie Watkins (6/11 scored)
Picking a seventh taker was a big decision as others have a better record than Watkins, although they have taken fewer than his 11 attempts.
The Aston Villa striker has only converted six for a success rate of 55 per cent and didn’t force the ‘keeper to make a save on three occasions, but he has had a tremendous goalscoring season and his confidence must be high.
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Again, Watkins’ technique is to take two side steps to his left before his run-up, and then he likes to open his body up, invariably to go to the ‘keeper’s left.
In this example against Lille in a shootout in the Europa Conference League quarter-finals, as he plants his foot he slips, but unlike John Terry and David Beckham in the past, he still managed to steer the ball into the top corner.
8. Lewis Dunk (4/4 scored)
This may surprise many, sending a big centre-half up to take a crucial penalty if a shootout got to number eight, but Dunk has a 100 per cent record, although he has only taken four.
By this point, the nerves will really be jangling, but Dunk seems a strong character and a leader who is ready to take on responsibility.
Just because he is a defender doesn’t mean he lacks a sound technique. Again, he starts with a jog-on-the-spot start before a determined stride forward and, in this example against Manchester United’s David de Gea in an FA Cup semi-final shootout from 2023, a welcome outcome.
9. Eberechi Eze (7/8 scored)
With seven successes from eight attempts, Eze certainly knows how to take a penalty. The Crystal Palace man takes two steps to his left and stops in his run-up to wait for the ‘keeper to commit himself before calmly sliding the ball into the opposite corner, similar to Toney.
His only miss came in 2019 while playing for Queens Park Rangers against Sheffield Wednesday, when Keiren Westwood didn’t fall for the trick and went the right way, but since then Eze has honed his approach.
10. Trent Alexander-Arnold (3/3 scored)
A dead-ball specialist should be pretty decent at penalties, right?
Although Alexander-Arnold has only taken three penalties, he has been pretty effective so far, boasting a 100 per cent record.
His technique is pretty similar to how he takes free kicks. He has a relatively short run-up and strikes the ball superbly, and with commitment. Even if the ‘keeper guesses the right way, his efforts are tough to keep out.
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The only concern would be that Euro 2024 hasn’t been the best of tournaments so far for the Liverpool man and his confidence may be damaged after the largely failed experiment of Southgate of playing him as a midfielder.
11. Kieran Trippier (3/6 scored)
Another dead-ball specialist. Trippier is a threat from free kicks but his record from 12 yards is less impressive. In fact, he has only scored three out of six attempts, although the three he did score came in shootouts rather than normal time.
He has twice failed to hit the target, and the two misses in normal time came for Tottenham against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup in January 2019 and at Atletico Madrid against Lokomotiv Moscow in the Champions League the following season.
But Trippier is one of the experienced heads in the England squad and should take the responsibility, as he does here in a Carabao Cup shootout against Crystal Palace in 2022.
12. Declan Rice (2/4 scored)
Part of England’s leadership group (alongside Kane, Bellingham and Kyle Walker), Rice may not have the best record from 12 yards, but he held his nerve to convert in the shootout against Porto for Arsenal in the Champions League last-16 last season.
His two misses were for West Ham United, at West Bromwich Albion in 2021 and Nottingham Forest in 2022, and the midfielder has grown as a player since then.
13. Kobbie Mainoo (2/2 scored)
Every time Mainoo speaks, he comes across like a much older player. The 19-year-old’s maturity on and off the pitch has seen him develop rapidly over the last year or so for Manchester United and now England, and he should play a prominent part in the rest of the tournament, however long that lasts.
Mainoo has a record of two from two in shootouts (both came for United’s under-21s in the Football League Trophy), so he has yet to experience the disappointment of individual failure from the spot, and that should swell his already impressive confidence levels if called upon.
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14. Anthony Gordon (3/3 scored)
Like Alexander-Arnold, Gordon has a 100 per cent record with three from three as a senior player, and had a good record at youth level at Everton, scoring five from seven at under-18 level and in Premier League 2.
Obviously, the knockout stages of a major international tournament are a completely different environment, but Gordon has shown how much he has developed in recent seasons in becoming one of Newcastle’s key players, and he could be set to play a more prominent role for England too.
He is a player that is growing in stature.
15. Phil Foden (2/3 scored)
Foden is without doubt one of the most talented and technically gifted individual players in the England squad, so you would back him from 12 yards — although his relative lack of experience counts against him somewhat.
All three of his penalties have come in shootouts where he has scored twice and missed the target once.
He will be on a high after the birth of his third child, so expect some sort of tribute to Foden Jr if he does have to step up in this tournament. Odds on he sucks his thumb.
16. Kyle Walker (2/2 scored)
Walker hasn’t had much chance to show what he can do from the spot, but when called upon he has held his nerve to score twice from two efforts.
He is a senior member of the England squad and has performed well in front of the camera as well as on the pitch, so he should hold his nerve if the spotlight is on him in a shootout too.
17. John Stones (1/1 scored)
It is a similar situation for Stones as it is for Walker.
There isn’t much to assess in terms of his penalty technique as he has taken just one, but he scored that for Everton as they lost an epic shootout 9-8 against West Ham in the FA Cup in 2015.
Stones is experienced enough to be relied upon in a pressure situation, although there is an air of Southgate circa Euro 96 about him if he is asked to step up.
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18. Conor Gallagher (2/2 scored)
There would have to be real concern over the damage that has been done to Gallagher’s confidence after being withdrawn at half-time of his big opportunity against Slovenia.
Would his head already be down before he had to step up? Would self-doubt already be in his mind? Let’s hope we don’t have to find out.
19. Jordan Pickford (1/1 scored)
How’s this for a track record of taking penalties under pressure? Pickford stepped up to take the fifth penalty of the Nations League clash with Switzerland in 2019 as England finished with the bronze medal, the Everton man beating Yann Sommer.
“We practise them consistently,” said Pickford at the time. “I always pick my spot and I haven’t missed one in training, but I had never taken one in a real game.”
The England goalkeeper might be a good shout ahead of some of his outfield team-mates, if it came down to it.
20. Ezri Konsa (2/3 scored)
Two successes out of three aren’t bad, but this would be a big moment for Konsa if he has to make the long walk to the penalty spot.
It would be a step into the relative unknown and the hearts of the nation would have palpitations if it got to Konsa in a shootout.
As for the rest…
Luke Shaw (1/1 scored) is the only other member of the England squad to have taken a spot kick, but with continued concerns over his fitness just making the walk from the centre circle might be an achievement.
For the other five — Aaron Ramsdale, Dean Henderson, Joe Gomez, Marc Guehi and Adam Wharton — taking a penalty would be a step into the unknown.
However, Guehi is arguably England’s player of the tournament so far and one of the first names on the team sheet, so perhaps he could head up this mini-group if Shaw is unavailable.
Fingers crossed and hope for the best.
Additional reporting: Duncan Alexander