Are the USMNT out of Copa America? Scenarios after Panama defeat

The USMNT suffered a shock defeat to Panama at Copa America on Thursday to leave their chances of progression beyond the group in doubt.

Folarin Balogun had given the tournament hosts the lead with his second goal in as many games at the competition before Cesar Blackman equalised.

The U.S. had earlier been reduced to 10 men after Tim Weah was sent off for an off-the-ball incident.

Jose Fajardo stunned the home crowd at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta with an 83rd-minute goal to ultimately win it before a chaotic ending with Adalberto Carrasquilla also dismissed for a late challenge on Christian Pulisic.

The result now leaves Gregg Berhalter’s side with work to do to qualify for the knockout phase.

GO DEEPER

USMNT 1-2 Panama: 10-man U.S.'s Copa America hopes in the balance

So, are the USMNT out?

No, but they have work to do.

The defeat against Panama likely now leaves them in need of a positive result against Uruguay on Monday night if they are to have any chance of advancing to the quarterfinals.

What do they need to do?

For the USMNT to advance to the knockout phase, their result against Uruguay in their final group-stage game must match or better Panama’s result against Bolivia.

• If Panama beat Bolivia, the U.S. must beat Uruguay and will then depend on goal difference (the first tiebreaker)
• If Panama and Bolivia draw, the U.S. would advance with a win or a draw
• If Bolivia beat Panama, the U.S. would advance with a win or a draw, while a loss would leave goal difference as the determining factor

Panama will be favorites to beat Bolivia given they are ranked 41 places higher by FIFA, soccer’s governing body.

They are also unbeaten against Bolivia in their past four matches, last losing a game to the nation in August 2008.

Final. pic.twitter.com/vSLbQZAEbJ

— U.S. Soccer Men's National Team (@USMNT) June 27, 2024

What are the tiebreakers?

In the event of a tie on points at the end of the group goal difference is the first tiebreaker before goals scored and then head-to-head record.

A team’s disciplinary record can ultimately be used to split a tie before the drawing of lots.

• Points obtained in all group matches (three points for a win, one for a draw, none for a defeat);
• Goal difference in all group matches;
• Number of goals scored in all group matches;
• Points obtained in the matches played between the teams in question;
• Goal difference in the matches played between the teams in question;
• Number of goals scored in the matches played between the teams in question;
• Fewest red cards;
• Fewest yellow cards;
• Drawing of lots.

What now?

Monday, July 1

USMNT vs Uruguay (9pm ET, Arrowhead Stadium)

Bolivia vs Panama (9pm ET, Inter&Co Stadium)

(Photo: Hector Vivas/Getty Images)