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At first glance, Gareth Southgate and England appear to have won the major tournament knockout bracket lottery (again). In topping Group C at this European Championship, they avoid Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium and hosts Germany until the final, should they find a way of getting there.
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Sunday’s last-16 opponents Slovakia are, realistically, not the same level of side England have faced at that stage in their three major competitions under Southgate: then-African champions Senegal at the 2022 World Cup, Germany at Euro 2020, Colombia at the 2018 World Cup.
Slovakia have already equalled their best-ever European Championship finish (having also got this far at Euro 2016) and, in qualifying for the round of 16 as a third-place team, they become an easy write-off.
Yet without stepping too far into the “no such thing as an easy knockout game” cliche, there are three reasons Slovakia might cause England some problems when they meet in Gelsenkirchen at the weekend.
First, they’ve shown their capacity for an upset already at these Euros, beating group favourites Belgium 1-0 on matchday one. “I am trying to impose on the team the mentality to play all games openly, regardless of the opponent’s qualities,” Slovakia’s Italian coach Francesco Calzona said during the tournament’s qualifying phase last year. Their only two defeats in the 10 group games came against Portugal, and both were by the odd goal, 1-0 and 3-2.
If England have questions over their midfield selection, Slovakia do not.
Stanislav Lobotka is the deepest of the trio, with Ondrej Duda and Juraj Kucka (a caps-centurion who played at World Cup 2010) in more advanced positions. It is a balanced central midfield, with two No 8s who press aggressively out of a mid-block, late-running goalscoring threats (Duda especially) and an anchor (Lobotka) who is comfortable stitching attacks together and playing under pressure.
Expect a 4-3-3 attacking shape with shades of Napoli’s 2022-23 Serie A title-winning side in the way they combine out wide and use up-back-through patterns to release midfielders. When not in possession, Slovakia like to drop into a 4-1-4-1 and push a No 8 forward to press your centre-backs.
They were the oldest team in qualifying, and are the oldest at the finals, too. Calzona has built his side on strong foundations, not just tactically but specifically in terms of experience in the spine of the side.
“Putting together 25 to 30 players from at least 11 or 12 different championships (various leagues) with different roles and mentalities was the hardest part,” Calzona said in qualifying. “Getting them to all think along the same lines, and in a short time, was really difficult. But we always play to win.”
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Left centre-back Milan Skriniar is a Paris Saint-Germain regular suited to one-v-one duels in the air. He can be expected to cause England No 9 Harry Kane problems and defend touch-tight against him. Outside Skriniar is Feyenoord’s David Hancko, a centre-back a club level who is used at full-back by Calzona. Naturally, his strengths are in defensive areas but he has a fantastic cross on him.
Newcastle United’s No 2 goalkeeper Martin Dubravka is between the sticks. He can look shaky on the ball, partly because Calzona likes him to take up aggressive positions to bait the opposition press, with Slovakia often building up through patterns to connect the midfielders and full-backs.
Against Belgium especially, Dubravka’s distribution was erratic. England’s press ought to target him. As a shot-stopper, though, Dubravka is solid, and a fundamental reason why Slovakia are so watertight — he has conceded less than a goal per game in 16 caps under Calzona, keeping clean sheets in half those matches.
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As relieved as England might be to avoid any of the big hitters, there is plenty for them to dislike about facing another compact mid/low-block (like final group opponents Slovenia), particularly with England yet to resolve their left-sided attacking issues. In fact, England and Slovakia had the lowest expected-goals (xG) tallies of any sides to qualify for the knockout phase. There is every reason to expect another of Southgate’s low-shots specials on Sunday.
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Search for Slovakia in most team-style metrics and they come out remarkably average. That can be viewed as a side lacking real tactical super-strengths and underlines their lack of a goalscoring No 9, but it also reflects how Calzona has raised the floor and eliminated any significant weaknesses.
For a team with a limited open-play output, they maximise set-piece situations to good effect.
Slovakia scored regularly from near-post corner deliveries in qualifying (goals against Bosnia & Herzegovina, Liechtenstein and Iceland). There is a long-range shot threat to be respected too, with only France (seven) scoring more than their five goals from outside the box during qualifying.
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Those who have not kept close tabs on the Slovakian football scene (shame on you!) might be disappointed to see the absence of Marek Hamsik — on the pitch, anyway. He retired internationally in May 2022, though was an emergency call-up last summer due to injuries. Now he’s part of Calzona’s coaching staff (and was with him at Napoli too, when they went back to their former club on an interim basis for the final months of this past season).
Ivan Schranz and Lukas Haraslin are the forwards to watch. Right-winger Schranz has scored two of Slovakia’s three goals in these Euros. Against Belgium, it was an angled half-volley on the rebound after they forced a high turnover from a Belgium throw-in close to their own goal. He then opened the scoring in their 2-1 loss against Ukraine: Slovakia set up for a long throw, then went short and Haraslin hung a back-post cross for Schranz.
Slovakia strike first in Dusseldorf! 👊
Ivan Schranz makes it two goals in two games 2️⃣⚽#BBCEuros #Euro2024 #SVKUKR pic.twitter.com/sUpvHCBML1
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) June 21, 2024
Haraslin is a right-footer playing off the left, fairly enigmatic and the type of winger who can ghost for periods of matches before coming alive with a dribble and winning the game. If England dominate possession, as expected, they will leave space for Schranz and Haraslin in transition, with Slovakia particularly effective at breaking from midfield-third regains — England’s counter-press will have to be spot-on.
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Calzona is certainly more of an in-game tactician than Southgate. If Slovakia’s build-up is not working or their pressing is off, they won’t keep trying — he had Dubravka start kicking long that day against Belgium when Slovakia could not find a way through the press.
England and Slovakia have some major tournament history, meeting at the Euros in France eight years ago.
That was England’s most recent tournament group game managed by someone not named Gareth Southgate — Roy Hodgson made six changes for what was the group finale, it ended 0-0, and England finished second behind Wales.
If Southgate is to crown his England career with silverware, there will not be many more favourable routes to the July 14 final. But first, he has a tactical banana-skin to negotiate.
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(Photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)