Team USA rules the Summer Olympics medal table. Will it continue in Paris?

Follow our Olympics coverage in the lead-up to the Paris Games.

If you could step into a time capsule and transport back to the hallways of the United States Olympic and Paralympic Committee in the last years of the 20th century, you would no doubt hear a lot of chatter about the sports behemoth in Asia.

“The skinny you’d hear in 1996 was that China was going to overtake (the U.S.),” said Bill Mallon, the world’s leading authority on Olympic medal statistics.

The numbers were hard to argue with. China had a population of more than one billion. The Chinese economy was booming, and there was a burgeoning middle class.

The government was determined to invest in Chinese excellence in nearly every facet of society, especially sports, because there are few better ways to make a big statement about international dominance than dominating the world’s top international sporting event. It built sports schools and academies. Chinese sports officials combed the countryside for young children with athletic talent and steered them toward a particular sport and specialty. Prevailing over that in the long term felt like holding back the ocean.

Until, of course, it didn’t.

“It turns out there’s only so many diving and table tennis medals you can win,” Mallon said.

What has transpired instead is a period of international sports dominance unlike anything in the 130-year history of the modern Olympic Games, which began in 1896. Since 1996, the U.S. has won the most gold medals and most overall medals in every Summer Games with one exception.

At the Beijing Games in 2008, the Chinese sports machine did what everyone had predicted it would, winning 48 gold medals, more than any other country, including the U.S., which won 36. Michael Phelps, swimming’s G.O.A.T., won eight of them, either on his own or as part of relay teams. That said, the U.S. still won the overall medal race that year, winning 112 compared to 100 for China.

After that half-hiccup though, the U.S. went back to largely thumping the rest of the world, though China came within a medal of tying the U.S. for gold medals in Tokyo in 2021. Title 9, the landmark 1972 civil rights law that has opened up countless opportunities for women’s participation in sports at schools and universities, has helped a lot. Women accounted for over 60 percent of the American medal haul in Tokyo.

The question now is how long that dominance can continue, especially amid a shifting formula for success in swimming and track, the country’s two strongest summer sports, and not coincidentally, the richest Olympic sports in terms of medals. During much of that stretch of dominance, having multi-event stars in the pool like Phelps and Katie Ledecky, and to a lesser extent on the track, plus a pretty good gymnast named Simone Biles, has helped plenty.

While Biles should still be dominant and Ledecky remains formidable, the U.S. heads into the Paris Games without an athlete — or two — that is practically guaranteed to collect a chestful of medals. Maintaining the dominance is likely to require a broader approach and some triumphs on lower-profile sports.

You probably haven’t heard of Eli Dershwitz. He’s a 28-year-old fencer from Massachusetts who won the world championship in men’s sabre last year. He’s got a decent chance of becoming the first American man to win a gold medal in fencing since 1904.

“Trying to keep the expectations out of my head,” Dershwitz said recently.

Americans also came away from Tokyo without a medal in rowing for the first time ever in an Olympics in which they participated.

Also, after receiving plenty of blowback from athletes who felt that America’s Olympic leaders were placing too much emphasis on winning, at the cost of their mental health, officials have shifted measurements for success slightly away from an obsession with the medal scoreboard.

What that looks like is tallying gold and overall medals but also the number of individuals who win a medal. So a relay medal in swimming or track can count as four rather than one. If women’s soccer can win a medal, that would count as 18.

In addition, Sarah Hirshland, the chief executive of the USOPC, said the organization wants to keep a close eye on which athletes perform better than they ever have at these Games.

“We are thinking about the number of human beings impacted,” Hirshland said. “Some relatively small portion will win a medal, but many go with the goal of achieving personal bests, and there are protocols set around allowing measuring them against their greatest potential.”

The organization’s reasons for that are twofold. It wants to make sure to recognize athletes who have excelled under the brightest of spotlights. It also knows that in some ways these Olympics are a step along the way to the biggest event on the calendar, which will occur in 2028 when the Summer Games arrive in Los Angeles. A personal best in Paris could help athletes and the national governing bodies that oversee their sports receive extra funding during the next four years.

“Americans love winners,” Rocky Harris, the chief of sport and athlete services at the USOPC, said earlier this year. “We want to set up Los Angeles for success.”

U.S. fencer Eli Dershwitz won the 2023 world title in men’s sabre. He’s among the top medal hopes for Team USA outside the highest-profile sports. (Pier Marco Tacca / Getty Images)

Harris, more than any other Olympic official besides Hirshland, is responsible for figuring out where the organization should invest its resources. He played a similar role as an associate athletic director at Arizona State University and then at USA Triathlon, where he helped the U.S. become a deep power at the Olympic distance.

USA Triathlon remains very good at finding a standout college runner or swimmer with a background in one of the other sports and helping them to learn the third. The latest is Morgan Pearson, a runner at the University of Colorado who swam in high school and learned how to compete well enough in cycling during the past decade. Pearson is among the top contenders for gold in Paris.

Like every other American Olympic official, Harris knows that swimming and track and field will form the backbone of American Olympic success. It won 29 medals, 12 of them gold, at last year’s track and field world championship, far more than any other country. In swimming, a newly dangerous Australian team won more gold medals, but America dominated the overall count at the 2023 world championships.

That said, Harris has his eyes on Dershwitz and some of his teammates in fencing. Like most everyone else, he will be somewhat shocked if the women’s eight does not get back onto the podium in rowing. He thinks some American sailors have a shot at medals, too.

America also generally does well when the Olympics bring in new sports, since its size and wealth generally translate into having someone who is decent at just about anything. Sport climbing, skateboarding and surfing all made their debut in Tokyo. The U.S. got onto the podium in each one. Those sports will be back this year. The new sport in Paris is breaking, in which American Victor Montalvo won the 2023 men’s world championship.

There may be one more reason the U.S. excels this summer in Paris. Organizers built the Olympic Village without central air conditioning, citing sustainability and a design they insist will keep the athletes’ quarters cool. Paris, though, can get pretty toasty in the summer. Heat can make it difficult to sleep.

When American athletes complained about this to their representatives at the USOPC, Hirshland approved bringing air conditioners for the team at her organization’s expense. She wants her team comfortable and well rested, enjoying as many of the comforts of home as they can. If the competition experiences some hot, restless nights, so be it.

“Consistency and predictability is extremely important to Team USA’s performance,” Hirshland said.

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(Top photo of Noah Lyles celebrating his win in the 100-meter at U.S. Olympic track and field trials: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)