Who was the worst NHL draft pick of the cap era, based on the players taken right after?

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It’s time for this year’s draft week time-waster, the annual tradition in which we spend a day arguing about one of the most intriguing events on the NHL calendar. This year, let’s take a new angle on an old question: What was the worst draft pick of the cap era?

It’s a question that comes up often enough that you can probably recite the usual suspects. Nail Yakupov in 2012. Nikita Filatov in 2008. Gilbert Brule in 2005. That bum that your favorite team took instead of the stay-at-home defenseman your uncle wanted.

But are some of those names fair? Yakupov was a bust, sure, but the 2012 draft was a mess. If the Oilers had somehow had a premonition from the future and shocked us all by passing on Yakupov, who would they have taken instead? The next player picked was Ryan Murray. The next forward was Alex Galchenyuk. The fourth pick was Griffin Reinhart, and the Oilers are probably glad they never acquired … OK, bad example maybe, but you get the idea. In 2008, Filatov was picked ahead of Colin Wilson, Mikkel Bødker, Josh Bailey and Cody Hodgson, who all had better careers by far but weren’t exactly franchise players. Brule went just ahead of Jack Skille, Devin Setoguchi and Brian Lee.

There were better plays available later in those drafts, of course, but it hardly seems fair to say a team whiffed on a top-10 pick because they should have taken a guy who ended up going 173rd. Clearly, that player was never a realistic option. It’s easy hindsight, but it’s not real criticism.

Today, let’s look at the problem a different way, by rephrasing the question: Who was the worst pick of the cap era, judged by how good the players taken right after him turned out to be? It’s one thing to pick a bust who’s only slightly worse than the picks who followed. It’s another entirely to watch a cast of all-stars immediately go off the board.

“Group of players” is a vague and admittedly arbitrary cutoff, and I doubt we’ll find any picks that go 5-for-5 on the superstar front. But I’ll bet we can find a few picks where most of the names that immediately followed turned into good-to-great players. Let’s try to do just that, if only to give you something to have nightmares about before you watch your team step up to the podium on Friday.

Erik Johnson (Blues), 1st, 2006

The player: Johnson was a big defenseman who’d starred for the U.S. development program. While his offensive numbers weren’t great, this was 2006, and big blueliners were viewed as the most valuable piece a team could add. If you had a chance at the next Chris Pronger, you took it.

Next up: Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom, Phil Kessel

The next four names off the board were all forwards, and it’s a list filled with stars and borderline HHOF cases. Toews was legitimately in the discussion as one of the best players in the world in his prime, while Backstrom and Kessel both put up some excellent offensive seasons, and Staal eventually became a Selke-worthy two-way center.

In fact, I’m pretty sure we won’t find many “next up” lists that can match this one. But the argument against this pick would be that while Johnson didn’t become an NHL 100 player like Toews, he was hardly a bust. He’s still active to this day, won the Cup with the Avalanche in 2022 and would have already crossed the 1,000-game mark if it weren’t for some injury struggles. Plenty of teams would take that from a high pick, so let’s keep looking.

Zach Hamill (Bruins), 8th, 2007

The player: Hamill was a productive WHL center known for his strong hockey sense and on-ice IQ, but was considered a bit of a reach when Boston took him in the top 10.

Next up: Logan Couture, Keaton Ellerby, Brandon Sutter, Ryan McDonagh, Lars Eller, Kevin Shattenkirk

This one’s kind of the polar opposite of the Erik Johnson entry. Unlike Johnson, Hamill really was a legitimate bust, playing 20 NHL games and never scoring a goal. He went on to have some success in Europe, but shows up frequently on lists of the worst picks in Bruins history.

But also unlike Johnson, Hamill wasn’t followed by any true superstars. Couture and McDonagh are the big names, and Shattenkirk, Sutter and Eller all had solid careers. Even Ellerby at least played 200 NHL games. Bruins fans would have preferred any of them, no question. But I’m not sure that list is good enough to take our crown.

Griffin Reinhart (Islanders), 4th, 2012

The player: A big defenseman with an undeniably cool name, Reinhart had starred for Edmonton in the WHL. He went into the draft ranked 10th among North American skaters by Central Scouting.

Next up: Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, Matt Dumba, Derrick Pouliot, Jacob Trouba

Can you spot the theme? Yeah, there was a bit of a run on blueliners at the top of the 2012 draft, and it’s fair to say the Islanders chose poorly. Reinhart played 37 NHL games, only eight of those in New York, while four of the five defensemen taken right after him became stars to varying degrees. And if you’re an Islanders fan who wants to feel even worse about this pick, the next forward taken in the draft was Filip Forsberg, who went 10th to the Capitals, who presumably kept him forever.

That said, the Reinhart pick is always a fun one to look back on because even Islanders fans don’t feel that bad about it given what it turned into. Should we factor that into our question? I’m not sure, but let’s see what other candidates we can find.

Michael Dal Colle (Islanders) and Jake Virtanen (Canucks), 5th and 6th, 2014

The players: The two Canadian wingers were both consensus top-10 picks heading into the 2014 draft, and went right around where they were expected to go.

Next up: Haydn Fleury, William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nick Ritchie, Kevin Fiala

Fleury’s been OK, but it’s the wingers who come after that make these picks sting. Nylander, Ehlers and Fiala have all become legitimate stars to varying degrees, while Dal Colle and Virtanen are both no longer in the NHL. Legal troubles certainly played a role in that for Virtanen, but he was in the midst of a five-point season when those issues surfaced, so it’s not like he was lighting up the league. And Dal Colle played parts of five seasons without ever topping 10 points.

Dylan Strome (Coyotes), 3rd, 2015

The player: Strome came into the draft as a big, skilled center who’d torn up the OHL. While viewed as being a level down from sure-thing franchise players Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, Strome was close to the consensus pick as the next best player in the draft.

Next up: Mitch Marner, Noah Hanifin, Pavel Zacha, Ivan Provorov, Zach Werenski, Timo Meier, Mikko Rantanen

Zacha saves Strome from being the worst player from the 2015 draft’s top 10, but that’s still a tough list of players to digest for Coyotes fans. It features a 50-goal scorer (Rantanen), a 40-goal scorer (Meier), a two-time first-team all-star (Marner) and three defensemen who’ve all been considered stars to varying degrees. Meanwhile, Strome produced 16 points in Arizona and is only now settling in as a top-six center on his third NHL team.

Zachary Senyshyn (Bruins),15th, 2015

The player: I know, Bruins fans, you saw Strome’s name and thought you might dodge the 2015 bullet you knew was coming. But we never said we were limiting this to one section per draft, so Senyshyn has to be here. The winger was an unusual mix of size and speed as a junior, but his good-but-not-great scoring numbers had him projected as a mid-second pick when the Bruins used their third of three straight firsts to take him. (As Sportsnet’s commentator said in the moment, “This one is right off the board.”)

Next up: Recite it with me, Bruins fans! Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor, Thomas Chabot.

Some draft week wheeling and dealing left the Bruins with picks 13, 14 and 15, and while that spawned plenty of excitement (and one legendary tweet), it’s fair to say they didn’t exactly nail them. Senyshyn is probably the most infamous of the bunch, with three legitimate stars going right after him. If you want to reach even further, Joel Eriksson Ek (20th), Brock Boeser (23rd) and Travis Konecny (24th) are some of the names that followed in this part of the draft.

Meanwhile, Senyshyn’s NHL career lasted 16 games and produced one goal.

Olli Juolevi (Canucks), 5th, 2016

The player: The Finnish defenseman had impressed at the world juniors, leading Craig Button to hype him up as being “incredibly competent.” Wait, is that hype? In hindsight, Craig may have been trying to tell us something.

Next up: Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller, Alex Nylander, Mikhail Sergachev

Canucks fans are probably tired of hearing about this pick, but we have to include it, especially since the very next player picked has developed into a Hart Trophy-level superstar. Keller is also very good, and while Nylander’s been a disappointment, he’s at least still in the NHL. Meanwhile, Sergachev was the next blueliner taker, and it’s fair to say he’s had a better career than the 41 games (for three teams) that Juolevi lasted.

Nolan Patrick (Flyers), 2nd, 2017

The player: After spending most of the year as the consensus top prospect in the draft, Patrick dropped to second in part due to injury concerns.

Next up: Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Elias Pettersson

I mean, we kind of have to mention this one, if only because you could make the case that slots 3 through 5 in the 2017 draft ended up being the three best consecutive picks in recent memory, with three franchise players going off the board immediately after Patrick’s name was called. That said, Patrick was a legitimate top prospect whose career was cut short by injuries, and it doesn’t feel like it fits the spirit of the thing to single him out here.

Alex Turcotte (Kings), 5th, 2019

The player: A well-rounded center who was projected as a two-way contributor, Turcotte had put up impressive numbers with the U.S. development program. Some of the year’s draft lists had him as high as third.

Next up: Moritz Seider, Dylan Cozens, Philip Broberg, Trevor Zegras

We’re well into the territory here where we shouldn’t get too confident, because there’s still a lot of road ahead for these players. That said, Seider has established himself as a top-pair star, Zegras has had highs and lows but looks like a rare offensive talent, and Cozens and Broberg have both shown far more than Turcotte has yet. So far, this pick hasn’t worked out.

So, who you got?

If you put injuries aside, then Patrick is probably the pick, but that feels wrong. Instead, I think my top two would have to be Senyshyn and Juolevi, probably in that order, while Strome takes home the bronze. But I’m open to hearing your ranking, plus any picks you think I missed, down in the comments.

(Photo of Jordan Staal, Erik Johnson and Jonathan Toews: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)