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Copa America kicks off today, with the United States as hosts. Reigning champion Argentina takes on Canada in the first game on Thursday.
What can we expect? Will Argentina complete a storybook last dance with Angel Di Maria as he plays one more major tournament with Lionel Messi? Will Vinicius Junior find a way to lead Brazil to a title? And how will the U.S. do in its fifth invitation to the oldest national team tournament?
Here, six of The Athletic’s writers give their predictions…
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Who will win the tournament and why?
Paul Tenorio: I’m not going to break away from the crowd here. This tournament falls kindly for Argentina to navigate to the final. There, no matter the opponent, Messi and Co. win a third consecutive international tournament in his new home city.
Felipe Cardenas: Argentina’s quest for greatness has defined this Messi-led group of players. They will have learned plenty from the 2022 World Cup. They took a haymaker in their opening match against Saudi Arabia and got back up. Argentina won a quarterfinal penalty shootout and leaned on multiple players other than Messi to triumph in a tournament setting. The defending champions are battle-tested and very talented.
Jeff Rueter: Although the U.S. is the host, doesn’t this still feel like Argentina’s tournament? Like their talisman, the federation has set up firm roots in Miami over the past couple of years. In what might be Messi’s swansong, La Albiceleste should replicate Spain’s feat at the turn of the 2010s: continental title, World Cup, continental title.
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Melanie Anzidei: Winning a second Copa America in a row would solidify Argentina’s place as one of football’s greatest teams. This is not the same team that played on American soil in 2016. Far from it. This team is led by a captain who has once again found joy in playing and who has an entire nation behind him. Winning this tournament is personal for their players, and we’ll see that starting Thursday.
Joshua Kloke: Brazil might be a younger team but without the pressure that comes with World Cups, and the expectations Argentina clearly has on them (see the pack of picks above!) I could see Brazil’s talent taking over. If they can play liberated — which can admittedly be a challenge for Brazil — they should make their way through the tougher side of the draw and win their second Copa America title in the last three tournaments.
Thom Harris: Argentina are the sensible choice, but I’m going to be bold and say Uruguay.
They have been a joy to watch under Marcelo Bielsa scoring the most goals in World Cup qualifying, beating both Argentina and Brazil, before smashing four past Mexico in a pre-tournament friendly. Their roster is not only brimming with quality, but the kind of unstoppable athleticism that Bielsa needs to implement his man-to-man marking system, able to disrupt the opposition with aggressive defensive play and launch lethal counter-attacks.
With both nations tied on a record 15 Copa America titles each, I’ve got my fingers crossed for a meeting in the final.
Who will win the Golden Boot?
Tenorio: Lionel Messi
Cardenas: Lionel Messi
Rueter: Lautaro Martinez
Anzidei: Julian Alvarez
Kloke: Luis Diaz
Harris: Darwin Nunez
Who will be the best player?
Tenorio: Tough to go into a tournament predicting it will be anyone other than Messi. He is in good form and he will get his opportunities to score and change games.
Cardenas: Luis Diaz scored four goals at the 2021 Copa America, leading Colombia to the semifinals. Messi will take home the player of the tournament trophy, but Diaz will solidify his place as one of the sport’s best attacking players. Now 27, Diaz is hitting his peak. He’ll be a joy to watch this summer.
Rueter: It’s Messi like everything is these days, but Vinicius Jr will lead Brazil to a berth in the final and make a challenge for player of the tournament in the process.
Anzidei: The obvious answer is Messi. Even when he doesn’t want to be up there on the podium, he receives the honor again and again. But something about him giving the penalty kick to Lautaro during Argentina’s friendly against Guatemala last week makes me feel like the Inter Milan forward will have a surprise showing this tournament.
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Kloke: Brazil is Vinicius Jr’s team now and it feels entirely possible that he uses up all the runway afforded to him and takes flight this tournament.
Harris: I’m going to be bold again… James Rodriguez. Colombia have been in exceptional form under Nestor Lorenzo, unbeaten in over two years, and the 32-year-old has been central to his success. Given freedom to roam in behind the two forward players, he can drop deep to help with the build-up, but also pack a punch in the final third.
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How far will USMNT (Canada for you, Josh) get in the tournament? How will their final match pan out?
Tenorio: My gut feeling is the U.S. will bow out in the quarterfinals to Brazil after coming second in a tight finish for the top spot in the group with Uruguay.
Cardenas: After the Copa America draw, I picked the U.S. to reach the semifinals. That’s a bare minimum requirement for the host nation. However, after being thrashed by Colombia 5-1 in a June friendly, I have serious doubts about the USMNT’s ability to win a knockout game at this Copa America. Berhalter’s side will bow out in the quarterfinals.
Rueter: A step behind their 2016 showing: second in Group C behind Uruguay (six points), then a cagey 2-1 defeat in the quarterfinal against Group D winner Colombia.
Anzidei: I’d like to believe the U.S. will surprise us all and push through to the semifinals once again, but that’s only if they finish at the top of Group C. If they are the runner-up in their group, which is more likely, I don’t see them ousting Colombia or Brazil in the second round.
Kloke: Finishing third in a difficult Group A, which would include a confidence-building win, feels likely for Canada. Running until their legs give way against Chile for a result in their final game should inspire some fans back home, but it might not be enough to get a still-developing team into the knockout stage.
Who will ‘do an Enzo Fernandez’ and get a big transfer off the back of a tournament?
Tenorio: Yaser Asprilla. My Colombian colleague Felipe Cardenas wrote in The Radar that the 20-year-old is the Colombian Phil Foden. High praise. He plays in England (for second-tier side Watford) already and has been very good in a short amount of time for Colombia. If he can do it on this Copa America stage, even coming off the bench, that’s a recipe for a big transfer fee.
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Cardenas: Asprilla is a great shout by Paul. I don’t know how much he’ll play though. I’m going to choose Ecuador’s Piero Hincapie. His profile is rising after helping Bayer Leverkusen to an undefeated season in the Bundesliga. He’s an athletic ball-playing center back who is also left-footed. That’s a coveted profile at the highest level. If he plays well for Ecuador, Hincapie could make a move to the Premier League.
Rueter: We at The Athletic have all fallen hard for Dario Osorio in 2024, and the Chilean winger seems poised to be Alexis Sanchez’s heir apparent. He’s played just one season with Midtjylland in Denmark, but the 20-year-old could be poised to make the leap to an even higher level.
Anzidei: I’m also excited to see how Osorio will do, as one of the young stars on Chile’s largely veteran squad. And I’ll be paying close attention to 23-year-old Santiago Gimenez, the Argentinean-born Mexican forward. He’s made a name for himself already for Feyenoord, and a breakout performance on the international stage will draw even more eyes to the rising talent.
Kloke: We know Jonathan David is finally going to move on from Lille this summer after being Europe’s next great striker for years now. But whether he goes to the Premier League or elsewhere remains up for debate. Snagging a few key goals for Canada, especially if one of those goals comes against Argentina, could boost his profile and land him at the upper-echelon club he wants to play for.
Harris: Osorio. He has been having his own goal-of-the-season competition in Denmark and one more flash of quality will have the biggest clubs on high alert.
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Tell us one thing you really want to see happen…
Cardenas: The Copa America is such an important tournament for South American countries. I’m very intrigued to see how it plays out in the U.S. The 2016 edition seems like a distant memory. There wasn’t a North American World Cup on the horizon. This summer, every detail will be overanalyzed. But generally speaking, I can’t wait to see these elite footballers battle for a trophy. That’s what this is all about.
Rueter: Jamaica seemingly can’t get out of its own way lately. Since qualifying for the 2022 World Cup, the team and its federation seemed to be in a better way, with many of the program’s star players returning to secure qualification for this tournament. Leon Bailey appears set to skip out amidst a fresh rift, and time is running out for the Reggae Boyz to make the ambitious leap they aspired to before the 2026 World Cup.
Anzidei: The rematch between Argentina and Chile at MetLife Stadium in the group stage. I was there when Messi missed his penalty kick in 2016. I remember vividly watching a young boy in a Barcelona jersey cry into his father’s arms after the final whistle, and later learning the news that Messi retired. Messi has the chance to rewrite this story, and I’m excited to see what happens.
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Kloke: Copa America is a dry run for the United States co-hosting the World Cup in two years. How will the cities and venues handle hosting these games? What kind of buy-in will local fans show? Then there’s the question of transportation around the games, which, boring as that might be, has come up as a topic of conversation during the European Championship. There are early signs of anticipation towards 2026 building in some of the cities, but Copa could determine whether that anticipation will continue.
Harris: From a personal perspective, the energy of the fans. I was at Colombia’s friendly with Spain at the London Stadium in March, and could hardly believe the noise. Yellow shirts were all I could see when I touched down in Miami airport earlier this week, four days and over 1000 miles away from their opening group game against Paraguay at the weekend.
Which team is poised for a big surprise?
Cardenas: Mexico could be a sleeper, but Ecuador is the obvious choice for me. They’re young, athletic and physical. If they can consistently create and finish their chances, Ecuador will emerge as the most dangerous side in the knockout round.
Rueter: Last time the Copa America came stateside, Chile surprised many by besting a pressure-riddled Argentina on penalties. Equally, that feat feels like a stretch, but they have a favorable Group A draw beyond Argentina and would face the winner of the projected weakest group (likely Ecuador). If Osorio dazzles and veteran holdovers have one last dance in their legs, a semifinal run could be in the cards.
Anzidei: I was at Red Bull Arena in March when Ecuador faced Italy in a friendly, and the crowd was split evenly for both teams. That energy fueled Ecuador, so I’m curious to see how their fans show up during Copa America. Ecuador’s group on paper might just be the easiest to get out of. For that reason, they may catch whoever they face in the quarterfinals flatfooted.
Kloke: I’m on the Ecuador train as well. Building confidence through a weaker group should help them in the knockout stage.
Harris: They are not going to win the tournament, but I’m hopeful that Venezuela can carry on their positive form. They look hungry to press, are energetic and gritty in midfield, and have real pace and zip on the wings.
Give us an outrageous prediction…
Cardenas: Messi will turn back the clock and play like he’s 10 years younger, but he’ll revert to 2010 form and end the tournament without a goal. You said outrageous, right?
Rueter: Groups B and C will be entirely absent from the semifinal and final round, as Group A (Argentina, Chile) and Group D (Brazil, Colombia) house all four podium challengers.
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Anzidei: Brazil doesn’t make it out of groups, because of the bad juju from Ronaldinho’s publicity stunt last week. Talk about things you don’t do before a major tournament.
Kloke: Everyone knows what I’m going to go with, right? Canada dials up the intensity to 11 against Argentina in the tournament opener, tries to throw some elbows around, scores early and shocks the soccer world with a win. Big-time Senegal over France in the 2002 World Cup opener vibes here.
Harris: We will end the tournament with a new, all-time leading goalscorer at the Copa America, and it will be… Eduardo Vargas.
Lionel Messi needs four goals to equal the record of 17, while Peru’s Paulo Guerrero, like Vargas, needs three. But I fancy Chile to make it to the knockouts, and their No 9 has looked sharp at the top of Ricardo Gareca’s revitalised team.
(Top photos: Getty Images)