HOUSTON — Hello, Astros fans. You awoke Wednesday morning in an unfamiliar predicament.
Houston had not faced a 10-game division deficit since Oct. 2, 2016. A 2-0 loss to the lowly Chicago White Sox on Tuesday dropped this Astros club 10 games behind the first-place Seattle Mariners.
FanGraphs still gave the Astros a 29.7 percent chance to reach the postseason. The club’s decision-makers must ponder whether that is enough to make meaningful changes at the trade deadline. You all have your thoughts, evidenced by the deluge of questions submitted for this mailbag. Let’s answer a few.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
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Should the Astros be sellers at the deadline if we fall lower in the standings, and who would potentially be traded? — Connor W.
Given that the Astros are 10 games out now and things look pretty bleak for the future of this season, who do you think are the players the Astros would consider giving up at the trade deadline? — Brad W.
Don’t you all listen to Dana Brown? He’s been emphatic across the past three weeks that “I don’t see any scenario where we’re sellers.” Questions asked and answered. Right?
Not really. Brown is placating a fan base and projecting optimism, even if nothing his club does on the field warrants it. The second-year general manager is in a miserable spot, working for an aggressive owner who has overseen one of the greatest eras in franchise and city history.
Brown doesn’t have the high-end prospect capital needed to out-bid other contenders or address all of Houston’s needs at the July 31 deadline. The club’s proximity to the second luxury tax threshold only complicates matters. As of Wednesday afternoon, so did a 10-game deficit in the American League West.
Fans following Houston’s golden era are familiar with only one playoff path: winning the West, securing a first-round bye and awaiting an ALDS matchup. Wild cards are a foreign concept, but one this club may make more en vogue.
Houston entered Wednesday 7 1/2 games back of the final American League wild-card spot — still a daunting deficit but not one that should be considered insurmountable. Last season’s World Series was a matchup of two wild-card teams. Houston lost to another in the 2019 Fall Classic.
Brown and his baseball operations department must decide whether this is a team capable of a similar run. Its roster is stacked with some of the most experienced playoff performers of this generation. The Astros always seem to transform into a superpower in October, but never with this generation has it felt more grueling just to get there.
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Failing to gain any meaningful traction before the All-Star break will force Brown to consider changing his stance. Jim Crane is not the sort of owner who would authorize a total fire sale, but a soft selloff with a goal of contending again in 2025 could be something he is more prone to consider.
If that is the path Houston travels, shopping third baseman Alex Bregman and setup man Ryan Pressly would make sense. Perhaps starter Justin Verlander too — especially if the Astros feel Verlander won’t reach the 140-inning threshold he needs for his 2025 vesting player option.
Bregman is a franchise pillar, but an impending free agent with a remote chance of returning to Houston. Pressly, who has a no-trade clause, must make 50 appearances this season to enact his $14 million vesting option for 2025 — a season in which Houston will still have Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader.
If this year continues to follow the current storyline for the Astros, do you think Jim Crane will move to replace Joe Espada or Dana Brown in the offseason? — David B.
Crane dismissed a general manager six days after winning the World Series, David. How he would react to actual underachievement — while carrying the highest payroll in franchise history — is anyone’s guess.
Scapegoating someone would seem logical if this team misses the playoffs, but blaming either Espada or Brown for the entirety of the letdown seems shortsighted. The team’s first-half failures have been holistic, not limited to one or two pieces of the organization. Injuries have ravaged Houston’s starting rotation while underperformance has limited a lineup that still sits atop most American League leaderboards.
Still, neither Brown nor Espada should escape scrutiny. Brown’s choice to not supplement the starting rotation with some experienced depth this winter is curious, especially after injuries to Verlander and J.P. France were known about before spring training. The team also knew neither Lance McCullers Jr. nor Luis Garcia would contribute until after the All-Star break.
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Forecasting two season-ending Tommy John surgeries is impossible, though. Brown deserves credit for bringing in contributors Victor Caratini and Tayler Scott this winter. Encouraging pitching coaches to convert Ronel Blanco into a starting pitcher has worked wonders, too.
Records will always reflect on the manager, but Espada can only play the roster he is handed. Keeping José Abreu on it for 40 games — a decision neither Espada or Brown wholeheartedly endorsed — hamstrung the manager’s ability to maneuver late in games. Early-season meltdowns by Bryan Abreu, Pressly and Hader came from three relievers any manager in the sport would turn to with a lead. The lack of position-player depth has been a simmering issue across the past two seasons. This one is highlighting it.
What Crane must analyze between now and October is the clubhouse’s view on Espada. Reporters aren’t permitted enough access inside to gauge the entire portrait, but Espada and bench coach Omar López are fixtures in the pregame clubhouse, either going over that day’s early work or just engaging in casual conversations with the players.
The club has continued to play with adequate effort and isn’t a fundamental disaster. Most of its defensive metrics are improved from last season, as is the pitching staff’s ability to control the running game.
Pinning underperformance on anyone but the players themselves seems misguided, but sports is full of figures who’ve taken the fall for it.
How much more runway does Chas (McCormick) get while sporting a .560 OPS and 62 OPS+? — Mark T.
Yordan Alvarez missed Tuesday’s series opener against the Chicago White Sox while dealing with a family matter. Kyle Tucker remained on the injured list with his right shin contusion. McCormick still couldn’t crack the starting lineup, ceding one outfield spot to Trey Cabbage and another to Mauricio Dubón.
Nothing else better illustrates McCormick’s standing, Mark. Houston did face a right-handed starter Tuesday, but the club hailed McCormick as an everyday player before the season. McCormick started Wednesday against southpaw Garrett Crochet, perhaps signaling he’s now more of a platoon player.
Entering Wednesday, McCormick had a .560 OPS and a .286 slugging percentage. An injured hamstring limited him in April and forced him to the injured list. After his activation, McCormick had six hits in his first 40 at-bats.
Last week, without prompt, Brown mentioned McCormick as a player who stands to lose playing time if and when the team promotes prospect Joey Loperfido from Triple-A Sugar Land.
Loperfido is first eligible to be called up again on Friday, but a minor left-hand injury he sustained last weekend might delay his promotion by a few days. When the team does summon him from Triple A, it will confront a difficult decision of who to demote.
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Loperfido and Cabbage are left-handed hitters, so Houston could just swap the two of them if Loperfido is promoted, but it’s worth wondering if it’d be more beneficial for McCormick to get everyday at-bats in the minor leagues to find his swing.
Is there a realistic chance of seeing Jake Bloss pitch for the Astros this year? — Kyle P.
Yes, Kyle. Brown is enamored with Bloss, the third-round pick of his first draft as Houston’s general manager. The 23-year-old right-hander has a 1.61 ERA across 44 2/3 innings at Double-A Corpus Christi. Opponents are hitting .127 against him.
Given the attrition in the Astros rotation and Brown’s adamance that he will move prospects quickly, it would not be a surprise to see Bloss bypass Triple A and receive a shot at the major-league level.
“I’ve got my eyes on him,” Brown told the team’s pregame radio show Sunday. “I’m not afraid to move guys fast. He’s proving to us he can throw strikes, he’s got power stuff and he can log innings. If he continues to progress, you never know. Our rotation has been beaten up a bit. I’ve been paying a lot of attention to Bloss.”
The realistic time to have signed Tucker has passed, yes? — Mark G.
There’s nothing stopping the Astros from engaging with Kyle Tucker right now, Mark, but his market value is much higher than anything the club has ever shown it is comfortable paying. So, sure, the time to sign Tucker to an Astros-centric extension has long passed.
As we detailed in late May, the Astros approached Tucker and Yordan Alvarez about long-term extensions during the 2021 season. Alvarez signed a six-year, $115 million deal that remains the third-largest contract during Crane’s ownership tenure. Talks with Tucker broke down in May 2021, and details of the offers he turned down are unknown.
Since June 2021, Tucker has earned two All-Star selections, twice finished in the top 15 of AL MVP voting and won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. According to FanGraphs, only two outfielders have been worth more wins above replacement than Tucker across this span: Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
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Tucker will enter free agency after his age-28 season. His representatives at Excel Sports Management will demand the sort of contract Crane has long been loath to give, beginning a saga that’s played out across the past six seasons. George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa and Dallas Keuchel all lived it. All ended up elsewhere.
(Top photo of Joe Espada and Dana Brown: David J. Phillip / Associated Press)
