CLEVELAND — There’s a fire in the pitching factory and it might be a while before help arrives.
Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie, armed with his best velocity of the season, exited after 2 1/3 innings on Tuesday, continuing an alarming trend of abbreviated outings for Cleveland’s starters. That’s not a trait any team covets when attempting to survive 162 games.
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Take a look at the innings pitched by Cleveland’s starters in each game over the last three weeks:
6 1/3
6
5 2/3
5 1/3 (three times)
5 (five times)
4 2/3
4 (two times)
3 1/3
2 1/3
1 2/3
That’s an average of 4 2/3 innings per start. They had four off-days in the last two weeks, which helped manager Stephen Vogt navigate the recent stretch.
Tanner Bibee is a burgeoning frontline starter, but he’s still enduring the usual bumps in the road that surface during a sophomore season. Logan Allen has trended in the right direction recently, but that has only lowered his ERA to an unsightly 5.30. Ben Lively is enjoying a career year, but for a 32-year-old journeyman with an 89-mph heater, playing the role of savior is a hefty ask. Carlos Carrasco is 37 and his pitches no longer overpower or fool opposing hitters.
And then there’s McKenzie, still searching for some elusive remedy. He missed almost all of last year, and elected to rest for a couple months instead of undergoing elbow surgery. His velocity was much better on Tuesday — his 92.2 mph average fastball was his best this season — but his swing-and-miss stuff remains in hiding.
"We didn't play a very good game tonight."
Stephen Vogt on Triston McKenzie's outing and the @CleGuardians missing out on scoring opportunities. #ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/NdfcRk5Oge
— Bally Sports Cleveland (@BallySportsCLE) June 19, 2024
In 2022, when he recorded a banner year, he limited walks, regularly convinced hitters to chase and used his fastball to set up his slider and curveball. (He threw the two secondary pitches exactly 616 times each.) The curveball, in particular, was electrifying, with a 45 percent whiff rate and an opponent average of .120 and slugging percentage of .203.
This year, McKenzie has leaned on the same approach, but the fastball has been pulverized.
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2022: 1,575 fastballs, 13 home runs
2024: 620 fastballs, 13 home runs
His chase rate has plummeted, his walk rate ranks among the worst in the league and his swing-and-miss rate has decreased.
“I think it’s growing pains,” McKenzie said after his outing Tuesday. “It’s something different every start. I think everybody goes through it.”
Clearly, the Guardians’ rotation needs a boost or two.
This group was intended to have Shane Bieber. Losing him to elbow surgery two starts into the season, especially when he was once again tossing filthy stuff, was a critical blow. And yet, it hasn’t truly proven to be an Achilles’ heel — a weak spot in need of an upgrade, sure, but not a debilitating deficiency — until now.
Vogt has masterfully deployed what has been the league’s top bullpen, and the off days have helped. But now the Guardians have to battle the Mariners, Blue Jays, Orioles and Royals before their next chance to catch their breath. It’s not ideal to burn through 6 2/3 innings of relief on Day 1 of that stretch.
So, what can they do?
This rotation was also supposed to feature Gavin Williams, but what was initially suggested to be a minor elbow malady — really, there’s no such thing for a pitcher — has spiraled into a three-month absence. He’s scheduled to start Friday for Double-A Akron. It could be his final minor-league tune-up, but he hasn’t exactly resembled someone ready to rescue an ailing rotation.
The Triple-A rotation at the moment includes Joey Cantillo (who is stretched out to 59 pitches after a two-month absence), Xzavion Curry (who has been walloped in Columbus all season), Will Dion (who has been similarly shaky) and Connor Gillispie and Darren McCaughan (who have been slightly less shaky, but still aren’t enticing options).
Even in Cleveland, where for years they have seemingly churned out capable starters at the top of every hour, team officials have always stressed there’s no such thing as sufficient pitching quantity. And yet, this winter, they merely swapped out Cal Quantrill for Lively and called it a day and, well… [chaotic hand motions].
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That corners them into a desperate position when it comes to the trade deadline.
It’s difficult to execute a deal in mid-June or late June or even early July, especially in a world with three wild-card berths in each league and with a draft lottery that offers less incentive for bad teams to become worse as soon as possible. There are a ton of teams hovering around the .500 mark who won’t need to decide whether to buy or sell until the pressure mounts in five weeks. The Guardians fell into that camp last summer. There are also a bunch of contenders that need starting pitching help.
That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, of course. Our trade buzz crew at The Athletic reported in recent days that the Miami Marlins are open for business, and would make a deal well in advance of the July 30 deadline if the return met their demands.
Jesús Luzardo will likely be their most coveted prize, and he’d fit what the Guardians are seeking. So would most starters. Cleveland’s front office shouldn’t be picky. The club could use a frontline hurler, sure, but a mid-rotation innings eater would help, too.
The Guardians’ most pressing issue, though, is they need help fast.
Bieber, in town for a regularly scheduled checkup, walked into the Guardians’ clubhouse on Tuesday afternoon and caught up with his teammates. Unfortunately for them, he can’t offer them any assistance on the mound. The Guardians are still searching for his replacement, and then some.
(Photo: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)
