The PGA Tour is back in action this week after an incredible finish to the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2. The two protagonists from that wild final round, Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy, won’t be teeing it up this week in Connecticut, but the field is still fully loaded. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Åberg will all be trying to win the final signature event of the PGA Tour season against a stacked field at TPC River Highlands.
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The players teeing it up in Cromwell, Conn., will feel like they are getting a nice reward after battling Pinehurst No. 2 last week. The golf course’s length will starkly contrast to Pinehurst No. 2. TPC River Highlands won’t even touch 7,000 yards. The native areas to the sides of the fairways will now be bluegrass fescue rough. The bentgrass greens roll true and won’t get close to the speeds that the players saw at the U.S. Open.
The model this week won’t rely on driving distance but will instead concentrate on proximity to the fairway, birdie or better percentage, putting on bentgrass greens, strokes gained around the green, and strokes gained on approach. I will include some distance buckets in the wedge- to 8-iron distances. Strokes gained at TPC River Highlands will also factor in, as golfers tend to play well here year after year.
Course information
Course: TPC River Highlands — Cromwell, Conn.
Designed by: Robert J. Ross and Maurice Kearney, redesigned by Pete Dye
Par: 70
Yardage: 6,835 yards
Average green size: 5,000 square feet
Features: TPC River Highlands is a short Par 70 that will see players making birdies in bunches. Jim Furyk set the scoring record here, shooting an incredible 58 in 2016 at 46 years old. The golf course features bentgrass from the tee boxes to the greens and bluegrass fescue for rough. The golf course has some water in play on a few holes, with holes 15 through 17 all playing alongside a lake. Bubba Watson won this tournament three times which may surprise people after you tell them driving distance isn’t a big factor in winning here.
Past Champions: Keegan Bradley 2023, Xander Schauffele 2022, Harris English 2021, Dustin Johnson 2020, Chez Reavie 2019, Bubba Watson 2018, Jordan Spieth 2017, Russell Knox 2016, Bubba Watson 2015
Odds for Travelers Championship winner
Odds are from BetMGM and update live.
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Betting Slip
Ludvig Åberg (+1400) was in contention to win his first major championship at the U.S. Open before a poor performance on Saturday saw him fall back towards the field. He struggled around the green on Saturday, which can happen to anyone at a U.S. Open. Åberg played here last year and finished 24th while driving the ball incredibly well and gaining over three strokes with his putter. He has gained over 5.8 strokes on approach combined over his last two tournaments.
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Patrick Cantlay (+2200) came out of nowhere to push Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau all the way to the end at the U.S. Open. Cantlay missed the cut at the Memorial, where he has dominated over the years, the week before the U.S. Open, so he became an afterthought to most. The only lineups I even thought about playing him was when I thought about game theory and his potential low ownership. His T3 at the U.S. Open wasn’t a fluke as he gained strokes across the board, including over 10 strokes from tee to green. He has four straight top-13 finishes here, and his odds are decent because of his form before the U.S. Open.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) has looked healthy after having to withdraw late before the Wells Fargo Championship. He has two straight top eight finishes after gaining over seven strokes combined on approach. He has gained almost 13 strokes combined around the green over his last three tournaments. He finished 13th here last year.
Brian Harman (+4000) has four top-eight finishes at TPC River Highlands in his last five tries. He gained strokes across the board at the U.S. Open. He had gained over 10 strokes on approach combined over his last three tournaments before the Memorial. He has gained strokes around the green in five of his last six tournaments.
Corey Conners (+4000) has gained over 30 strokes ball-striking combined over his last five golf tournaments. He has gained over 6.7 strokes around the green combined over his last two tournaments. He finished T9 here last year, so he has some success under his belt.
Tom Kim (+5500) finished T38 here last year on his first trip to TPC River Highlands. He has gained over 4.3 strokes on approach in two out of his last three tournaments. If he didn’t struggle on Sunday at the U.S. Open, we would probably be getting him at a shorter number.
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DFS Plays
Scottie Scheffler ($12,500) gained almost seven strokes ball-striking at the U.S. Open and still barely made the cut and finished outside the top 40. His putter took a nose dive after being locked in ever since the Genesis Invitational. He lost over six strokes on the greens, but I don’t think that will bleed over to this week. His ownership in GPPs was over 40 percent last week, which is crazy high. I think it will be more toward the 32 percent area this week after his struggles at the U.S. Open.
Xander Schauffele ($11,200) won here in 2022 and comes in excellent ball-striking form as he has gained over 7.2 strokes on approach in three out of his last four tournaments. With Rory taking some time off, I expect Xander to attract a lot of attention at this price.
Ludvig Åberg ($10,200) See above.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,600) See above.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200) See above.
Tony Finau ($8,900) striking the ball well is not a surprise. Finau gaining over 1.7 strokes with his putter two weeks in a row is a surprise. Finau has gained over 22 strokes on approach combined over his last four golf tournaments. He finished T13 here in 2022 and is in such good form that you can’t ignore him this week.
Keegan Bradley ($8,700) won here last year and came in second in 2019. Growing up in Vermont and Massachusetts, Bradley has the closest thing to a home-court advantage here at TPC River Highlands. I don’t like his price this week. It is too high when compared to some other players I want to get in my lineups.
Russell Henley ($8,600) finished the U.S. Open strong, shooting a 67 on Sunday. Henley has gained strokes on approach in five straight tournaments, and he has gained over 11 strokes putting combined over his last two tournaments.
Corey Conners ($8,400) See above.
Brian Harman ($8,300) See above.
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Tom Kim ($8,100) See above.
Adam Scott ($7,700) made it into the U.S. Open by the skin of his teeth. He played decently last week and will probably be looking forward to coming to TPC River Highlands, as he has two straight top-19 finishes here. He is struggling with his putter a bit right now, but he has been gaining strokes on approach consistently.
Jason Day ($7,400) is priced so low that he popped out when I looked at the value plays. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, which I can forgive him for. He has lost strokes on approach in nine of his last 10 tournaments, and yet he has a top five in a signature event over that time span. He has two top-10 finishes here in his last five tries. Even though he has been struggling lately, I am going to use him in some GPP lineups.
Akshay Bhatia ($7,200) had his short game locked in at the U.S. Open as he gained over seven strokes in that category. He has been very good off the tee, gaining more than 1.8 strokes off the tee for four straight tournaments. He gained over two strokes on approach at the U.S. Open on Thursday before struggling a bit the rest of the week. He will need to improve that if he is going to push for a top-10 finish this week.
Will Zalatoris ($7,100) is priced so low that I have to take a flier on him in a GPP lineup or two. He is too good not to shake off this current form, and maybe this short course could help him dial it in. He hasn’t finished better than 41st since the Masters so I wouldn’t put all my eggs in this basket.
Séamus Power ($6,500) has two top 25s here in his last three trips. He has been alternating hit-or-miss weeks with struggles in every part of his game. The shorter distance here should help him this week.
Adam Svensson ($6,400) is a balky putter away from jumping up the leaderboards. He hasn’t missed a cut since The Players Championship, but he only has one top-25 finish in that time frame. If he can somehow figure out his putter, he could surprise this week.
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Andrew Putnam ($6,400) is a short-course specialist who has played well here before finishing 13th in 2021. He has gained strokes putting in five of his last six tournaments and he has gained strokes around the green in four out of his last five tournaments.
One and Done
Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Reference this spreadsheet tracking who we have used.
Standings
- Dennis Esser: $9,034,966.00
- Brody Miller: $7,639,588.16
- Hugh Kellenberger: $7,322,323.63
Hugh Kellenberger: It’s been a really tough stretch. Have to have a big week. I’ll go with Collin Morikawa, who shot a 63 a year ago here and has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour this year.
Brody Miller: After a troubling season, it’s time to appreciate Sam Burns and the nice run he’s on. He’s finished top 15 in four of the last five weeks, including a great finish to the week at Pinehurst.
Dennis Esser: I’ve made a huge comeback in our One and Done over the last two weeks thanks to the huge purses at the signature events and the U.S. Open. DeChambeau has me in the lead, and I don’t want to cough it up. I went back and forth between taking Harman, Åberg and Cantlay this week. I even flirted with the in-form Finau. In the end, I decided to take Brian Harman, hoping he will continue his fine form at this golf course.
(Photo of Scottie Scheffler: Tracy Wilcox / PGA TOUR via Getty Images)