Maybe the shift was not as dramatic as in the AFC, but it might take you a minute to sort out what happened to previous NFC headline tailbacks like Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard and D’Andre Swift.
In any case, the NFC West enters 2024 as easily the best division in running the football — and not solely because Christian McCaffrey resides in San Francisco. Plus, how did the 2022 NFL rushing champion end up shifting to the NFC a little more than a season later? What about Ezekiel Elliott being in Dallas again?
Below is a glimpse at the state of each NFC running back room heading into the back end of the league’s offseason workouts. Here’s what went into this study (stats via TruMedia):
- Rush success rate (percentage of plays that gain 50 percent or more of yards needed for a first down on first or second down, or gain a first down on third or fourth down)
- Expected points added (EPA) per carry
- Yards per carry
- EPA per carry/target
(Notes: Rankings in parentheses; individual rankings based on a minimum of 100 touches; 56 running backs qualified)
GO DEEPER
How do AFC running back groups stack up heading into the 2024 season?
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
38.1 (16) | -0.03 (11) | 4.1 (20) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
43.8 (32) | -0.07 (30) | -0.02 (17) | |
41.8 (42) | -0.17 (48) | -0.17 (50) |
It wasn’t long ago when Pollard seemed ready to assume the Cowboys’ No. 1 running back role while Elliott took what was supposed to be a lesser role with the New England Patriots. Now Pollard is with the Tennessee Titans in a 1A role, while Elliott could be back as the lead option in Dallas. Elliott ended up with 185 carries with the Patriots, but he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry.
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The Cowboys will undoubtedly use Rico Dowdle with Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman as the most notable names on the rest of the depth chart.
New York Giants
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
34.5 (24) | -0.15 (29) | 4.1 (18) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
41.7 (43) | -0.07 (29) | -0.08 (32) |
With Barkley hopping the train down to Philadelphia, the Giants will turn to Devin Singletary. The 27-year-old Singletary has been consistent, averaging 4.6 yards per carry in his career. Yet, he hasn’t been spectacular, which is why he’s on his third team in three seasons. The Texans basically passed on Singletary in favor of Joe Mixon.
New York also selected Purdue’s Tyrone Tracy Jr. in the fifth round of April’s draft, adding to a depth chart of unfamiliar faces.
Philadelphia Eagles
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
46.0 (2) | 0.01 (7) | 4.3 (11) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
41.7 (43) | -0.12 (39) | -0.06 (28) | |
40.9 (46) | -0.20 (51) | -0.19 (51) |
Miles Sanders succeeded with the Eagles. So did Swift. You’d have to imagine Barkley will thrive within an offense known for running the football well alongside weapons aplenty in the passing game, right? The rates look gross for Barkley with last year’s inept Giants, as he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. But I can’t imagine Barkley struggling with the Eagles, when healthy.
Kenneth Gainwell should maintain his slot as the No. 2 tailback. The Eagles added Clemson’s Will Shipley in Round 5 of April’s draft.
Washington Commanders
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
38.0 (17) | -0.09 (21) | 4.4 (7) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
46.1 (19) | -0.10 (35) | 0.00 (12) | |
44.7 (26) | -0.19 (50) | -0.19 (52) |
Despite the addition of Austin Ekeler, the arrow still seems to point north for Brian Robinson Jr. as he heads into his third year — he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and scored nine total touchdowns (five rushing, four receiving) last season. There’s no doubt, though, that Ekeler will garner plenty of attention given his prolific production with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2021 and 2022.
That said, expecting anything from Ekeler like those two seasons would be fool’s gold. Chris Rodriguez should give the Commanders nice depth as a No. 3 tailback after averaging 4.8 yards per carry in 2023.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
39.5 (9) | -0.02 (10) | 4.5 (6) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
51.5 (8) | 0.00 (9) | -0.04 (22) | |
44.4 (27) | -0.08 (31) | -0.10 (39) | |
43.2 (37) | -0.02 (14) | -0.13 (40) |
Swift played well for the Detroit Lions in 2022, then switched teams. He played well for the Eagles in 2023, then switched teams. Can he continue the cycle for his third team in three years? Frankly, the Bears needed Swift given they lost their top rusher from last season — quarterback Justin Fields.
That said, backs like Khalil Herbert (4.6 yards per carry last season) and Roschon Johnson (4.3) alongside Swift could make for a deep, impactful backfield. Chicago could use it, given it will throw 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams straight into the fire at quarterback.
GO DEEPER
How do NFC wide receiver groups stack up heading into the 2024 season?
Detroit Lions
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
39.6 (8) | 0.04 (2) | 4.6 (5) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
52.5 (6) | 0.06 (6) | 0.03 (8) | |
42.3 (39) | 0.00 (10) | -0.03 (19) |
Feel free to put David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs among the top tailback duos in the NFL. Montgomery excelled from the jump, joining the Lions last season after spending his entire career prior to that with the Bears. His presence gave Gibbs time to develop into an explosive piece for the Lions offense. There’s really no reason to think the two will take a step backward in 2024.
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The real challenge might be which one to ride with in a given game, since both work seamlessly within the offense. Craig Reynolds also remains on the roster as a solid No. 3 option.
Green Bay Packers
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
39.4 (10) | -0.06 (14) | 4.3 (9) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
46.1 (19) | -0.14 (41) | -0.09 (36) | |
39.9 (47) | -0.16 (45) | -0.14 (43) |
Traditional statistics and advanced metrics would point to Jones rather than Josh Jacobs. But just about every bit of the Las Vegas Raiders offense trended south last season without viable quarterback play. Jacobs, the 2022 NFL rushing champion, still stands as a proven bellcow back. Should his drop-off from 4.9 yards per carry in 2022 to 3.5 last season bring concern? A little. Should Jacobs benefit from playing in a better offense in Green Bay? No doubt.
Keeping AJ Dillon in the building despite his free-agent status will be beneficial, since the depth is thin after him. Green Bay added rookie MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3.
Minnesota Vikings
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
38.5 (13) | -0.09 (23) | 4.0 (24) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
54.2 (3) | -0.02 (16) | 0.03 (6) | |
46.1 (18) | -0.03 (17) | 0.00 (13) |
Here, traditional statistics and advanced metrics would point to Jones over any running back Minnesota employed in 2023 — the Vikings gained an instant upgrade by adding a former rival back. Jones turns 30 in December and missed six games last season due to injury, but there’s no denying the spark he provided late last season for the Packers.
Ty Chandler rightfully pushed his way into playing time last season, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He took take time away from Alexander Mattison, who’s now with the Raiders.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
34.2 (26) | -0.11 (24) | 4.1 (17) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
41.9 (41) | -0.09 (33) | -0.07 (31) | |
41.1 (45) | -0.15 (43) | -0.15 (45) |
Maybe Bijan Robinson will be the offensive marvel this season that myself and many others anticipated he’d be in his rookie season. You’d certainly hope so. After a solid 2022 campaign, you’d also hope for more from Tyler Allgeier following the Falcons’ offensive changes.
The offensive line isn’t the issue here, and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson should bring a fresh perspective. New quarterback Kirk Cousins ought to bring a potent passing game to Atlanta for the first time since Matt Ryan’s glory days, too. Now, back to why the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 …
Carolina Panthers
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
33.7 (27) | -0.14 (28) | 4.0 (23) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
45.8 (22) | -0.12 (38) | -0.15 (44) | |
37.2 (51) | -0.26 (55) | -0.27 (55) |
Sanders cashed in after the Eagles’ run to a Super Bowl berth in 2022, but the Panthers didn’t earn any dividends with him last year. Whether his output floundered because he dropped off or because the offense stunk, Carolina didn’t hesitate this offseason and added to Sanders and Chuba Hubbard in the running back room.
The Panthers traded up to take Jonathon Brooks in Round 2, making him the top tailback selected, and also took a flier on Rashaad Penny. Ultimately, Carolina has to hope Brooks will emerge quickly as the top back.
GO DEEPER
2024 NFL wide receiver outlook: How do AFC pass catchers stack up?
New Orleans Saints
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
38.5 (14) | -0.08 (18) | 3.6 (31) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
46.1 (17) | -0.02 (15) | -0.00 (14) | |
33.0 (55) | -0.23 (54) | -0.26 (53) |
Remember when Alvin Kamara was one of the most dynamic players in the NFL? Those were fun times. The Saints still flooded him with touches last year (180 carries and 75 receptions in only 13 games). And his rates showed he can still be effective, if the rest of the offense can get its act together.
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Jamaal Williams scored 17 TDs in 2022 with the Lions; he scored one last season on a fake kneeldown in Week 18. That told the story of his disappointing year. And can 2023 third-rounder Kendre Miller remain healthy enough to make any impact?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
28.2 (32) | -0.16 (31) | 3.4 (32) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
37.1 (52) | -0.20 (52) | -0.10 (38) |
It’s Rachaad White, Chase Edmonds and a trio of rookies led by fourth-rounder Bucky Irving who will try to pull the Bucs out of the rushing gutter. (I’m trying to figure out how the league’s worst rushing team will improve with White and Edmonds leading the depth chart again. Insert the shrugging guy emoji here.)
This seems like the Bucs are beating their head against the wall. At least White scored nine total TDs last season, and the Bucs pulled off an NFC South title and playoff win over the Eagles.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
39.7 (7) | 0.02 (6) | 5.0 (2) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
45.7 (23) | 0.07 (4) | 0.08 (3) |
You probably wouldn’t have believed that the Cardinals possessed one of the better running attacks in the league last season, given their near-basement record. James Conner produced his first 1,000-yard rushing season, averaged 5.0 yards per carry and scored nine total TDs — and only the die-hard fantasy players probably noticed.
Arizona spent a 2024 third-round pick on Trey Benson, the second back taken in late April. Emari Demercado saw some action last year, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, while former Jets tailback Michael Carter remains on the roster.
Los Angeles Rams
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
43.2 (5) | 0.01 (8) | 4.3 (12) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
56.1 (1) | 0.11 (2) | 0.03 (7) |
Kyren Williams came from nowhere to rush for more than 1,100 yards and 15 total TDs in his sophomore NFL season. His reward? The Rams drafted former Michigan star Blake Corum and added veteran Boston Scott. I can’t imagine Los Angeles not riding the Williams wave into 2024, though, given his elite 2023.
It’s still not a bad idea to take some of the load off his shoulders — Corum being the likely candidate to do so, given the volume of experience he received in Ann Arbor. Scott should be a change-of-pace option out the backfield.
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San Francisco 49ers
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
46.4 (1) | 0.03 (3) | 4.8 (4) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
52.9 (5) | 0.03 (7) | 0.03 (5) |
It’s safe to say the 49ers value McCaffrey, considering the team extended him for two more seasons at $19 million per year — about 15 miles more than what any other tailback is being paid. On the field and in the bank account, it’s McCaffrey and everyone else.
Elijah Mitchell seems primed to remain a No. 2 option and has plenty of experience within this offense. San Francisco also snagged Isaac Guerendo in the fourth round of the draft, bringing some added youth to the room.
Seattle Seahawks
| Team | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | Yd/Rsh |
|---|---|---|---|
38.8 (11) | -0.05 (12) | 4.1 (16) |
| player | Rush Success% | EPA/Rush | EPA/Tar+Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
45.4 (24) | -0.06 (25) | -0.09 (33) | |
43.4 (34) | -0.05 (24) | -0.04 (20) |
The Seahawks might have a challenging time figuring out the workload between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. They’re about the same in advanced metrics after Charbonnet picked up 108 carries last season. That said, Walker didn’t necessarily bungle away his RB1 designation (905 rushing yards and nine total TDs in 15 games last year). If anything, Seattle should feel strong about its running back pair.
Kenny McIntosh is the only other non-rookie on the roster.
GO DEEPER
One pressing question for every new NFL defensive play caller in 2024
(Top photo of Christian McCaffrey: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
