Any evaluation of the Minnesota Twins’ offseason should start with the fact ownership ordered the front office to slash payroll by $30 million coming off the team’s first playoff series victory in two decades, severely limiting their roster-building options and compromising their decision-making process in trades and free agency at the worst possible time.
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However, it’s also valid to note that multiple things can be true at once.
Yes, being forced to drop payroll by $30 million handcuffed the Twins’ front office, leading them to pursue lesser players and settle for moves they may not have even considered without the cost-cutting mandate.
But it’s also true that the front office’s offseason additions have performed poorly, nearly across the board, providing sub-replacement-level production while accounting for about 20 percent of the diminished payroll.
Here’s a player-by-player look at how their offseason additions have fared.
Carlos Santana, 1B
Carlos Santana was the biggest-name and biggest-money pickup of the low-wattage offseason. Shopping in the bargain bin for a veteran bat, the Twins settled for the 38-year-old first baseman four seasons removed from his last above-average OPS. In assessing the $5.25 million early February signing, I wrote: “If asked to be an everyday player at 38, he’s likely to underwhelm.”
Sure enough, Santana has the lineup’s second-most plate appearances and he’s underwhelmed, entering Thursday batting .211/.296/.366 to place 22nd out of 30 starting first basemen with a .662 OPS that’s 50 points below league average for the position. Santana’s glove has been good, but it doesn’t make up for his weak bat. He has the second-worst Win Probability Added (WPA) among Twins hitters.
What a play by Carlos Santana 😱#MNTwins | #MLB pic.twitter.com/UxjTyPkEYM
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 24, 2024
Anthony DeSclafani, SP
One of four players acquired in the Jorge Polanco trade, the Twins took on $4 million of Anthony DeSclafani’s salary from the Seattle Mariners in the hopes that he could be a decent fifth starter. They knew about the 34-year-old’s lengthy injury history, including a season-ending elbow strain in 2023, but wanted a veteran place-holder to delay dipping into prospect depth.
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DeSclafani never threw a pitch for the Twins, undergoing elbow surgery in spring training. And because the front office lacked the payroll flexibility to add any other veteran rotation options, the Twins had to turn to Louie Varland, whose developmental plan was altered so he could go 0-4 with a 9.18 ERA in four starts before being demoted back to the minors.
Manuel Margot, OF
Similar to how the Twins got DeSclafani, they took on $4 million of Manuel Margot’s salary from the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a Noah Miller-for-Rayne Doncon prospect swap in late February. Margot replaced Michael A. Taylor, whose asking price at the time caused the Twins to look elsewhere for a fourth outfielder to provide Byron Buxton insurance in center field.
It quickly became obvious Rocco Baldelli didn’t view Margot as a workable center fielder, as the manager played Willi Castro and even rookie Austin Martin over him when Buxton was out. Margot’s speed has declined noticeably and he’s hit .208 with one homer in 49 games, including just two starts in center field, producing a team-worst minus-0.7 bWAR. Doncon looks pretty good, at least.
Of note: Taylor has hit as poorly as Margot with the Pittsburgh Pirates, albeit with far better defense.
Jay Jackson, RP
Much like with Margot, it was apparent in spring training that Jay Jackson looked like a shell of his former self. But whereas a 29-year-old outfielder declining rapidly is somewhat unexpected, 36-year-old relievers are riskier business. Signed for $1.5 million a week before camp opened, Jackson was designated for assignment after posting a 6.85 ERA in 22 1/3 innings.
Jackson’s fastball averaged just 91.8 mph, down from 93.3 mph last season and 94.4 mph in 2019, relegating him to mop-up and long-relief work instead of the medium-leverage setup role he was brought in to fill. No teams put in waiver claims for Jackson and the $1 million he’s still owed, so he remains with the organization at Triple-A St. Paul, minus a 40-man roster spot.
Go ahead, James! pic.twitter.com/Y1zodwYTdF
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 9, 2024
Justin Topa, RP
Twins officials valued Justin Topa far more than DeSclafani in the Polanco trade, seeing the 33-year-old right-hander as a viable high-leverage bullpen option after he posted a 2.61 ERA and 2.97 expected ERA in a setup role for Seattle last season. But he hasn’t thrown a pitch for the Twins, getting shut down in spring training with a knee injury.
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Topa is attempting to avoid season-ending surgery for what has since been diagnosed as a partially torn patellar tendon, opting for the rest-and-rehab route to possibly return and contribute down the stretch. For now, he’s been ruled out until at least July. Topa is making a modest $1.25 million this year and he’s under team control through 2026, but his knee issues predated the trade.
Of note: Polanco is on the injured list after hitting .195 in 46 games for the Mariners, so the trade may hinge on how prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen develop for the Twins.
Steven Okert, RP
The mid-February trade of Nick Gordon for Steven Okert is the Twins’ lone offseason move that’s gone as intended so far. Gordon has hit just .230/.260/.374 in 51 games for the Miami Marlins, while Okert has been a functional (and inexpensive, for $1.0625 million) second left-hander in the Twins’ bullpen with a 3.06 ERA and 18-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17 2/3 innings.
However, even Okert has been less valuable than his shiny ERA suggests, falling behind in too many counts and allowing righties to hit .275/.383/.525 with three homers, including a back-breaking grand slam. Because nearly all of the damage off Okert has come in medium- and high-leverage spots, he ranks last among Twins relievers in WPA.
GRAND SALAMI CAL RALEIGH pic.twitter.com/KweXZiOiyk
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) May 8, 2024
Josh Staumont, RP
Signed as a $950,000 reclamation project coming back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, Josh Staumont began the season on the IL with a calf strain and then was optioned to St. Paul once healthy. Called up in mid-May, he’s worked primarily in low-leverage situations with a 0.00 ERA and 6-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 7 1/3 innings.
Staumont has done a solid job in a mop-up role, and it wouldn’t take much more than that for a $950,000 investment to be worthwhile, but he’s yet to resemble the setup-caliber arm from his prime with the Kansas City Royals. His fastball has averaged 94.5 mph, down from 96.6 mph in 2021 and 98.0 mph in 2020, although he is trending in a positive direction.
*Kyle Farmer, IF
Technically, keeping Kyle Farmer via arbitration wasn’t an offseason move, but actively deciding to bring him back for $6.3 million was functionally no different than signing him as a free agent. Many people were surprised the Twins invested that much in a 33-year-old backup. In fact, even Farmer said he expected to be on the move because of the payroll situation.
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Farmer remains a clubhouse favorite, but he’s hit .167 with no homers in 44 games and is no longer being used as the backup shortstop, ceding that job to the younger, more athletic Castro. Used mostly in platoons at second and third base, Farmer has hit .163 off lefties. Even if he’d hit closer to his career norms, $6.3 million is exorbitant for a non-shortstop utility infielder.
Group totals
Stretching the definition of “move” to include choosing to retain Farmer in mid-November, the Twins added a total of eight players with major-league contracts this offseason via signings or trades.
Of the four pitchers the Twins added, DeSclafani and Topa haven’t thrown a pitch and Jackson and Staumont have totaled a 5.16 ERA in 29 2/3 innings.
On the hitting side, Santana, Margot and Farmer combined to bat .199 with a .590 OPS in 409 plate appearances.
Collectively, they’re being paid $25 million by the Twins and have produced minus-0.7 WAR, meaning they’ve been worse than replacement-level talent.
(Photo of Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
