Seven under-the-radar Twins prospects off to stock-raising starts through 7 weeks

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 21, 2024: Rubel Cespedes #30 of the Minnesota Twins bats during the eighth inning of a spring training game against the Washington Nationals at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 21, 2024 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
By Aaron Gleeman
May 23, 2024

Last week, I checked in on the Minnesota Twins’ top 10 prospects from my preseason rankings to look at how Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, David Festa and the rest of the farm system’s biggest names are faring so far this season.

Today, let’s focus on some of the Twins’ prospects who weren’t included on my preseason top-10 list. Here are seven less-heralded Twins prospects off to stock-raising starts through the first seven weeks of the season and what could be next for them.

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Zebby Matthews, SP

Current assignment: Double-A Wichita
Twins preseason prospect ranking: 19th

One of the Twins’ defining draft strategies is using mid-round selections on college starters from small schools and boosting their fastball velocity with mechanical tweaks to turn them into legit prospects. Zebby Matthews was a soft-tossing control artist when the Twins picked him in the eighth round out of Western Carolina in 2022, and now he’s topping out at 97 mph.

What’s especially impressive about Matthews’ vastly improved raw stuff is that he’s retained his pinpoint control, leading to video game-like numbers. Bumped from High-A Cedar Rapids to Double-A Wichita two weeks ago, he has a 1.34 ERA and 51-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 1/3 total innings this season. Yes, you read that right: 51 strikeouts and one walk.

Matthews regularly works in the mid-90s with his fastball, and the 6-foot-5 right-hander can also attack hitters with a low-90s cutter, a swing-and-miss slider and a solid changeup. He’s been without question the breakout Twins prospect of the first seven weeks, rapidly raising his profile from back-end rotation filler to potential No. 3 or even No. 2 starter.

Ricardo Olivar, C/COF

Current assignment: High-A Cedar Rapids
Twins preseason prospect ranking: 16th

One of my favorite under-the-radar Twins prospects going into the season, Ricardo Olivar won’t be under the radar much longer. He’s mashed High-A pitching, maintaining the excellent strike-zone control he displayed in 2023 while adding more power. The 22-year-old has hit .287/.401/.504 with nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (25) in 32 games.

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Olivar won MVP of the rookie-level Florida Complex League in 2022, and since advancing to full-season competition last year has batted a combined .287/.405/.469 with 15 homers, 54 total extra-base hits and 70 free passes in 130 games. He’s a disciplined hitter but has been able to tap into a bit more aggression and hunt for extra-base damage without chasing bad pitches.

Olivar has one of the highest-upside bats in the Twins’ farm system, but his defensive future is murkier. He’s gotten increased reps behind the plate this season after previously splitting time between catcher and left field, but he continues to struggle controlling the running game, throwing out just six of 36 steal attempts.

Rubel Cespedes, 3B/1B

Current assignment: High-A Cedar Rapids
Twins preseason prospect ranking: N/A

Signed by the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as an unheralded part of the 2019 international class, Rubel Cespedes narrowly missed my top-40 list after back-to-back years at Low-A Fort Myers, slugging under .400. He moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids this season and has looked like a totally different hitter, making huge strides in both process and results.

Cespedes has batted .331/.414/.544 with five homers, 17 total extra-base hits and a Midwest League-leading 36 RBIs in 37 games. His hot start gets even more encouraging with a deeper look, as the 23-year-old has cut way down on swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone and made more and louder contact when he does swing, frequently pulling the ball with authority.

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His strikeout and swinging-strike rates are down, his walk rate has more than doubled compared to two seasons ago and Cespedes is now showing significant left-handed power to all fields. “He’s making way better swing decisions and not chasing as much,” Twins director of player development Drew MacPhail said.

Andrew Morris, SP

Current assignment: Double-A Wichita
Twins preseason prospect ranking: 17th

Picked four rounds ahead of Matthews in the 2022 draft, Andrew Morris is another college right-hander who has added considerable velocity working with Twins coaches. And whereas Matthews always had elite-level control, Morris’ strike-throwing has improved as a pro, trimming his walk rate from 2.9 per nine innings at Texas Tech to 1.8 per nine in the minors.

Morris received a Double-A promotion two weeks after Matthews by posting a 2.15 ERA and 43-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37 2/3 innings against High-A competition at 22. He has a top-five strike rate among all minor leaguers, pounding the zone and inducing grounders with a mid-90s fastball and solid off-speed pitches thrown from an over-the-top arm angle.

Through eight starts this season, 70.4 percent of Morris’ pitches have been strikes. For some big-league context, George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners leads the American League with 70.8 percent strikes. It’s possible Morris will have to dial back the in-zone aggression to avoid damage against high-minors hitters, but for now trusting his raw stuff is working wonders.

DaShawn Keirsey, OF

Current assignment: Triple-A St. Paul
Twins preseason prospect ranking: 29th

Speed and defense have been standout skills for DaShawn Keirsey since he was the Twins’ fourth-round pick in 2018, but he was considered a marginal prospect after totaling just 14 homers in his first four seasons. He broke out last year with 15 homers between Double A and Triple A, but the Twins left him unprotected from the Rule 5 draft and the 27-year-old wasn’t selected.

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Keirsey has been even more productive in his second Triple-A stint, batting .281/.381/.506 with six homers, 20 total extra-base hits and 12 steals over 41 games to lead St. Paul in OPS. He’s too old to be a top prospect, and clearly the Twins are skeptical about his upside, but Keirsey at least deserves a chance to prove he has the skill set to become a useful big-league role player.

He’s one of the fastest players in the organization, with MLB-caliber range in center field and an average of 47 steals per 150 games in the high minors, and the left-handed bat that once held him back is now a potential asset as well. He’s hit a combined .291/.371/.469 off Double-A and Triple-A pitchers since the start of 2023 and is seemingly a prototypical fourth outfielder.

Rayne Doncon, 3B/SS

Current assignment: High-A Cedar Rapids
Twins preseason prospect ranking: N/A

Trading middle-infield prospect Noah Miller for veteran outfielder Manuel Margot has been a bust, with Margot hitting .198 for the Twins, but the third piece of the swap has a chance to end up as the real prize. Rayne Doncon, a 20-year-old third baseman/shortstop acquired along with Margot from the Los Angeles Dodgers, has already hit his way from Low A to High A.

Doncon batted .283/.374/.464 with four homers and 17 total extra-base hits in 38 games for Fort Myers, out-slugging the Florida State League average by 120 points and drawing 21 walks after totaling just 36 in 107 games last year. Doncon was targeted because Twins scouts felt he had untapped offensive upside, and the early returns suggest they were right.

Originally signed for $497,500 out of the Dominican Republic in 2021 by the Dodgers, he’s started to pull the ball more consistently and there’s hope his quick, line-drive swing will gradually lead to above-average power. Doncon has split time between shortstop and third base this season, but he profiles best at the hot corner as he continues to mature physically.

Carson McCusker, COF

Current assignment: Double-A Wichita
Twins preseason prospect ranking: N/A

Undrafted out of Oklahoma State despite four years of strong production, Carson McCusker spent three seasons playing for the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League before catching the Twins’ eye. Signed to a minor-league deal last June, he was assigned to Low-A Fort Myers at age 25, an indication the Twins weren’t sure what to make of him.

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He bashed seven homers in 25 games there and smacked seven more in 21 games following a High-A promotion, convincing the Twins he warranted a bigger test for 2024. Now at the somewhat more age-appropriate Double-A Wichita, he’s hit .288/.375/.458 in 31 games, including a headline-grabbing three-homer outburst on May 7.

McCusker looks like a cross between Aaron Judge and Richie Sexson at 6-foot-8 and 250 pounds, and he has the power to match his hulking presence with 18 homers in 77 games since signing. He’s also struck out a lot, with a ton of swing-and-miss in and out of the zone, so there’s reason to question if he’s more than just a fun story. But he’s certainly become intriguing.

(Photo of Rubel Cespedes: Nick Cammett / Diamond Images via Getty Images)

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Aaron Gleeman

Aaron Gleeman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Minnesota Twins. He was previously the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus and a senior writer for NBC Sports. He was named the 2021 NSMA Minnesota Sportswriter of the Year and co-hosts the "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast. Follow Aaron on Twitter @AaronGleeman