ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The spring transfer window was busy for Dusty May and less so for Sherrone Moore.
In other words, both coaches got what they wanted. The Michigan football team held on to its biggest stars, and May rebuilt the men’s basketball roster with six transfers who should contribute immediately. Now that both rosters are mostly set, let’s answer some mailbag questions.
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Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
I feel like if you break the Big Ten into tiers, Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon are the top three. How would you break down the new Big Ten, and do you think Michigan will stay in the upper group? — Tylor S.
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If we’re talking about the teams that have the best chance to win the Big Ten in 2024, I’d put Ohio State and Oregon in a tier of their own, followed by Michigan, Penn State and perhaps another team or two. I take this to be a broader question about where each football program falls in the hierarchy of the new Big Ten, in which case it would go something like this:
Power brokers: Michigan, Ohio State
The Big Ten is more balanced with the addition of the West Coast programs, but Michigan and Ohio State are still the heavyweights. They’re the biggest brands, draw the biggest TV audiences and have the most recent postseason success. Fortunes may fluctuate, and there are plenty of teams capable of winning the Big Ten in a given year. Over the long haul, I’d still put these two programs a step above everyone else.
CFP contenders: Oregon, USC, Penn State
These are the programs that should contend for spots in the expanded College Football Playoff on an annual basis. They have the ingredients for success but haven’t quite gotten over the hump for one reason or another. They’re not Michigan or Ohio State in terms of national reach, but they’re not far behind.
Upwardly mobile: Washington, Iowa, Wisconsin
All three of these programs have had periods of sustained success in the not-too-distant past, highlighted by Washington’s run to the CFP championship game in January. Yet all three have questions. Can Jedd Fisch match the success of Kalen DeBoer and Chris Petersen? Can Kirk Ferentz find an offense? Is Wisconsin on its way back under Luke Fickell? If the answer is yes to any of these questions, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of these teams contending for a Big Ten championship.
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Upper middle class: Minnesota, UCLA, Maryland, Nebraska
These aren’t teams you expect to see in the CFP very often, but nine- or 10-win seasons aren’t out of the question. It’s safe to pencil Minnesota and Maryland into bowl games most seasons, and Nebraska is moving up thanks to Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola. It’s hard to know what to make of UCLA, but the program has a higher ceiling than it reached under Chip Kelly.
Lower middle class: Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers
Northwestern was one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten last year. Illinois won eight games in 2022 and seems to be getting more NFL talent under Bret Bielema. Rutgers had a winning season last year, its first since 2014, and has gradually returned to respectability under Greg Schiano. These are small victories, but at least there’s something to build on.
Rebuild mode: Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana
The Spartans and Hoosiers are starting over with new coaches, as Purdue did last year with Ryan Walters. The Boilermakers are a year ahead in the process, but all three are a ways away from contending.
Basketball question: What’s your best guess of how these new pieces fit together in a rotation? Who do you project to start? — Andrew R.
I feel more equipped to answer this question after listening to May describe his plan for the roster earlier this week. I’d expect Tre Donaldson to play 25 to 30 minutes per game at point guard and Vlad Goldin to do roughly the same at center. Roddy Gayle, Rubin Jones and Nimari Burnett should rotate at the two and the three. Sam Walters and Will Tschetter can play the four, with Danny Wolf as the backup at the four and the five.
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Breaking down Michigan's roster as it enters a new era
That’s a seven-man rotation. The return of Jace Howard should add depth on the wing, and Michigan will want to get a look at Durral Brooks, Lorenzo Cason and Justin Pippen, the three freshmen. Jones played point guard at North Texas and should give Michigan a secondary ballhandler, but there’s room for one of the freshmen to claim a few of those minutes.
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Which Michigan player will be the highest pick in next year’s NFL draft? — Jonathan B.
A lot of the early mock drafts have Will Johnson and Mason Graham going in the top 10. So it’s probably one of those two, and the answer depends on team needs and scheme fit. It’s hard to go wrong either way: Graham is a force on the interior defensive line, and Johnson has everything NFL teams are going to want in a cornerback. I might give a slight lean toward Johnson, purely because he’s such a smooth athlete and can do so many different things. I’m not convinced we’ve seen the best that Johnson has to offer, considering he dealt with injuries off and on throughout last season.
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Michigan and the NFL Draft: Who's next for the Wolverines?
Is there any chance Michigan would run a two-quarterback system? And have any programs had success doing that? Along the same lines, is Tim Tebow a good comparison to (Alex) Orji? — Kevin A.
Offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell didn’t rule out playing more than one quarterback, so I won’t, either. It could be a way to get Orji’s athleticism on the field while having a quarterback like Jack Tuttle or Davis Warren who can expand the options in the passing game. Is it ideal? Probably not. Could it work? Maybe.
A good template is what Michigan did with Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy in 2021. McNamara was the starter, but Michigan had a package of plays that used McCarthy’s athleticism and his playmaking ability. Orji would need to be on the field for more snaps than McCarthy played as a freshman, but the concept could be adapted to fit Michigan’s quarterback situation.
I might buy freshman-year Tebow as a comparison for Orji, but Tebow won the Heisman Trophy and accounted for 55 touchdowns as a sophomore. Tebow threw for more yards and touchdowns that year than McCarthy did last season. Orji is a long way from that, but he has some similar skills.
I’d look at what Alabama did last year with Jalen Milroe as a realistic comparison for Orji. It was bumpy at times, but Milroe grew into the job and Alabama figured out what worked for him. If Michigan can do that with Orji, it would be preferable to rotating quarterbacks.
I would think that Michigan would be raking in the top RB, OL and DL recruits based on Michigan’s record at development and game plan. What’s holding it back at recruiting better? — Nick K.
I’m not sure how many five-star recruits are picking a school based on its style of play or its history of sending players to the NFL, but I suspect the number is fairly small. That’s not to say those things don’t matter, only that it’s probably not the deciding factor. Michigan gets a lot of players drafted, but so do Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Oregon and LSU. Those programs develop running backs and linemen, too. Even if Michigan has an edge in some areas, it’s not such a massive advantage that five-star recruits are going to start flocking to Michigan over those other programs.
Michigan’s formula is to sign many good players in the high four-star range and mix in the occasional five-star recruit and a few under-the-radar prospects with upside. The Wolverines just won a national championship that way, so it’s hard to knock the strategy. Michigan isn’t going to flip a switch and become a recruiting juggernaut like Georgia or Ohio State, but the Wolverines now have proof that there’s a different way to build a championship roster.
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It’s legitimate to ask whether Michigan is still in position to sign the Will Johnsons and the J.J. McCarthys in the era of unregulated name, image and likeness, and the answer is going to go a long way in determining whether the Wolverines can stay atop the Big Ten. The 2024 class featured a blue-chip running back, Jordan Marshall, and a strong group of offensive line recruits, and Michigan has a top-50 edge rusher committed for 2025, Nate Marshall. It’s not as though the program is bereft of talent. But if Michigan is going to sustain the success of the past three years, evaluation and development are going to be the keys.
Has there been a change in admission policies? May seems to have no issues with the portal. — Ritesh K.
I asked May this week about the perception that it’s hard to recruit transfers at Michigan, and this is what he said:
“We have to do our work early. (Otherwise) there’s no reason for us to invest a lot of time, energy and effort, especially the emotional energy that goes into recruiting. It’s one thing to make a call, and it’s another thing to really be invested in that call, and to be present and relational in it. … There were a few guys we had to stay away from. Maybe we could have gotten them in. We didn’t go down that road because we had to be so efficient with our time.”
The biggest issue is with transferring credits, not with getting players admitted. That’s why Michigan has gravitated toward graduate transfers or younger players with fewer credits from their previous schools. Even Myles Hinton, a transfer from Stanford, had credits that didn’t transfer, and not every player is going to want to retake a bunch of classes if they have other options. May and his staff were on top of that and didn’t get caught waiting on players who weren’t going to end up at Michigan. With so many players in the portal, Michigan can afford to be strategic in targeting the ones who fit. May did that and assembled a roster that should be competitive in the Big Ten.
(Top photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
