CLEVELAND — Shane Bieber’s strikeout rate this season was higher than his strikeout rate in 2020, when he was the unanimous American League Cy Young Award winner.
Granted, Bieber made only two starts before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. That’s a microscopic sample.
Numbers can paint wild pictures this time of year. The Cleveland Guardians are on pace for a major league-record 120 wins, for instance. At that rate, they might wind up with a 90-game lead on the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central.
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Let’s examine some samples that are a bit larger and that might not continue at their current rate, but at least help to explain how the Guardians have raced out to a surprising 17-6 start.
“Right now, it’s just a number,” outfielder Will Brennan said. “It’s early. It’s April. But we know our preparation’s going to continue to lead to putting us in positions to win ballgames. And with our pitching and the way our offense is, it’s going to be tough to beat us.”
They have a team ERA of 2.94
That ranks third in the sport, just behind the second-ranked Detroit Tigers, who sit 3 1/2 games behind them in the division. The bullpen has played a significant role in that. More on that in a minute. But the rotation has held together despite injuries to Bieber and Gavin Williams and inconsistency from Triston McKenzie. On Tuesday, Ben Lively provided the club its first start of at least six innings in three weeks in a 4-1 victory over the Boston Red Sox. The staff ranks second in strikeout rate and first in percentage of runners stranded.
Cleveland's baseball team, a charter member of the American League in 1901, has never had a better 23-game start to a season than this one.
17-6: 1966, 1999, *2024*
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16-7: 1913, 1920, 1921, 1941, 1948, 1955, 1988, 1995— Zack Meisel (@ZackMeisel) April 24, 2024
Their offense has performed at a rate 15 percent better than league average
The Guardians entered their series opener against the Red Sox on Tuesday with a team wRC+ (weighted runs created) of 115, a fancy way of saying they ranked sixth in the majors in producing offense. Last year, they ranked 22nd, with a 92 wRC+.
That 115 mark, should they sustain it for another five months, would match the 1995 team for the best wRC+ in franchise history.
(Sure, take a minute to let that comparison marinate.)
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That isn’t to say that Brennan is on par with Manny Ramirez or that Estevan Florial should be confused with Eddie Murray. The metric is adjusted for league factors, so it’s all relative to the run-scoring environment of the time. That ’95 team, stocked with Hall of Famers, should-be Hall of Famers and could’ve-been Hall of Famers, produced a slash line of .291/.361/.479. The 2024 group has a collective clip of .257/.325/.411.
It helps that they entered Tuesday with a .327/.399/.455 slash line with runners in scoring position, which sheds some light on how they ranked third in the majors in runs per game (5.6) despite an OPS that ranked eighth. Last year, they hit .245/.323/.368 in such situations.
Steven Kwan is on pace for 240 hits
The record is 262, set in 2004 by Ichiro Suzuki, who was one of Kwan’s baseball inspirations. The only non-Ichiro players with at least 240 hits in a season in the last 90 years are Wade Boggs (1985) and Darin Erstad (2000). Kwan’s walk rate is down and his strikeout rate is up slightly, but it’s the result of a more aggressive approach at the plate, which has translated into a .351 average.
| Player | Hits | Year |
|---|---|---|
Ichiro Suzuki | 262 | 2004 |
George Sisler | 257 | 1920 |
Lefty O'Doul | 254 | 1929 |
Bill Terry | 254 | 1930 |
Al Simmons | 253 | 1925 |
Rogers Hornsby | 250 | 1922 |
They entered Tuesday with a team slash line of .303/.370/.483 against left-handed pitching
Last year, they posted a majors-worst .232/.296/.367 clip against southpaws. José Ramírez somehow smacked a 98 mph fastball to the opposite field for a home run off a lefty in the eighth inning Tuesday. It was his first homer to right field off a lefty since 2017.
“There’s probably only two guys who can do that,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said, “and they’re short — him and (Jose) Altuve. … That ball was up and away, and he barrels it and hits it out of the ballpark. He’s a stud. He’s a good player. Obviously, I’m not rooting for him, but you’re in awe. I was like, ‘For real, bro?’ He’s amazing, and that at-bat tells the whole story. He’s one of the best players in baseball.”
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And then there’s Gabriel Arias.
Arias against lefties in 2023: 9-for-108 (.083 average, .316 OPS).
Arias against lefties in 2024: 6-for-11 (.545 average, 1.363 OPS).
He needs to go 3-for-97 against lefties to match last year’s output.
Josh Naylor is on pace to eclipse the 40-homer mark
No Cleveland hitter has accomplished that since Travis Hafner in 2006. The Guardians rank in the middle of the pack in homers as a team, which, after last year’s basement finish, is like upgrading from the bathroom at the back of the plane to first class. They rank fourth in extra base hit percentage, and Naylor is a big reason why, as he’s on pace for 43 homers and 35 doubles.
Cleveland’s relievers have a strikeout rate of 30 percent
That ranks second in the majors, behind the Minnesota Twins. As everyone predicted, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Nick Sandlin and Cade Smith have combined for 59 strikeouts, 21 hits allowed and a 1.41 ERA in 44 2/3 innings. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been great, too, with only one earned run allowed in 12 innings. He struck out all three Red Sox hitters he faced Tuesday. A unit missing Sam Hentges, James Karinchak and Trevor Stephan — three relievers who stockpile strikeouts — hasn’t suffered at all.
| Reliever | Strikeout rate |
|---|---|
37.2% | |
35.4% | |
34.9% | |
28.9% | |
28.3% | |
27.3% | |
26.2% |
Andrés Giménez and Ramón Laureano are on pace to combine for 77 hit-by-pitches
The single-season record is 51, set by human pin cushion Hughie Jennings in 1896. A more modern and still painful record is 50 by Ron Hunt in 1971. The Cleveland record is Giménez’s 25 in 2022. Second place? Giménez again, in 2023, with 20 (tied with Ryan Garko’s season of bruises in 2007).
Both Giménez and Laureano are on pace to smash the second baseman’s team record, which might not be a goal of theirs but at least benefits their on-base percentages.
The Guardians are on pace to swipe 141 bases
The more impressive feat might be that no one has more than three steals and every position player on the roster has at least one but Josh Naylor. The team record is 210 in 1917, but the top entry from the last century is 160 in 1996, fueled by Kenny Lofton’s 75. In fact, the team has totaled 150 or more on 19 occasions, all in the dead ball era except for 1996, 1993 (Lofton had 70 of their 159) and 2023 (151 in the first year with new base-stealing-benefiting rules).
Last year, they had four players steal 20 or more bases (Giménez, Kwan, Ramírez, Myles Straw). Naylor and Brennan reached double digits, too.
(Photo of Bo Naylor, right, celebrating Will Brennan scoring a run: David Dermer / Associated Press)
