Duke vs. North Carolina State expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for Elite Eight matchup

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Just over two weeks ago, NC State shocked the college basketball world as a double-digit underdog, taking down Duke in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament to win its third game in three days and keep its season improbably alive. The Wolfpack won’t be quite as big an underdog this time it takes on the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight, but a win will continue what has been one of the hottest, most unforeseen runs in tournament history.

The Wolfpack grabbed a 9-7 lead before the first media timeout in their Sweet 16 tilt on Friday night and never looked back, comfortably downing No. 2 seed Marquette 67-58. It was a commanding defensive performance, holding a versatile Golden Eagle attack to an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 86.8, its worst outing of the season, per BartTorvik.com. It was also the seventh consecutive game holding opponents below 35 percent from 3-point range. Opponents are shooting 28.8 percent from distance during the past eight games, down from 35.2 percent it gave up before the streak.

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Duke, for its part, is looking to show that ACC tournament result was less indicative than the 15-point road victory over the Wolfpack on March 4. The Blue Devils’ defense has been dominant in the NCAA Tournament, highlighted by stifling a Houston team that had lost its leader in Jamal Shead in the first half to injury. Duke has not allowed any tourney opponent to shoot an effective field goal percentage over 43.3, and posted three straight Adjusted Defensive Ratings below 86, after doing so just three other times this season.

On the offensive side, Duke has gotten timely contributions from a number of players through its first three games, with Kyle Filipowski pouring in 16 points against Houston, Jared McCain 30 against James Madison, and Mark Mitchell 15 against Vermont. Filipowski led the Blue Devils in their last tilt with the Wolfpack, while Jeremy Roach paced Duke with 21 in their first meeting. That is to say, Duke’s top-10 rated offense is varied in both approach and contributions.

With a win, NC State would reach its first Final Four since 1983 and have in-state bragging rights for years. Duke is looking to give coach Jon Scheyer his first Final Four appearance in just his second season at the helm.

What: South Region, Elite Eight

Tipoff time: 5:05 p.m. ET Sunday

TV: CBS

Location: Dallas