Tennessee vs. Creighton expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 game

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Teams with similar profiles that have taken similar paths will go head-to-head when Creighton and Tennessee face off in Detroit on Friday night for the final spot in the Elite Eight. The higher-seeded Volunteers are slight favorites over the Bluejays.

Creighton and Tennessee both rank among the top 30 teams in the country in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are two of the more experienced teams. To get to the Sweet 16, each first handily defeated a mid-major before encountering a tougher challenge against a power conference opponent.

These similarities, however, do not mean the Bluejays and Volunteers are mirror images of each other. Creighton is one of the nation’s top shooting teams – ranking third in effective field goal percentage at 57.4 – despite running an offense that focuses heavily on making 3-pointers. No team in the Sweet 16 has made more 3-pointers than the Bluejays (25) and the 56 attempts have accounted for nearly half (45.6 percent) of their total shots in their two tournament victories.

The problems, however, come when those long-distance shots aren’t falling. After shooting nearly 60 percent from long range in a comfortable win over Akron in the first round, Creighton went 15-for-39 (38.4 percent) and needed double overtime to survive Oregon. Tennessee also has defended the 3-point line well, including holding Saint Peter’s and Texas to a combined 11-for-47 (23.4 percent).

The Bluejays are just as effective inside the arc too. They rank third nationally in two-point field goal percentage (59.7), thanks in part to their size. The two key players are 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner and 6-foot-8 wing Baylor Scheierman. Creighton plays with a six-man rotation, so Kalkbrenner, Scheierman and the other starters must stay out of foul trouble.

For Tennessee, Dalton Knecht has to stay out of foul trouble for his team to succeed. The SEC Player of the Year has put up a combined 41 points with 17 rebounds so far, but he’s also shooting under 40 percent from the field. As a team, the Volunteers shot the ball very poorly against Texas – 39.3 percent overall, 5-for-16 on 3-pointers. The bigger concern is that forward Jonas Aidoo is the only other player who has put up double-digit points in each game.

Tennessee may be deeper than Creighton but it won’t matter if Knecht and Aidoo are the only ones scoring. The Bluejays also are one of the top defensive rebounding teams, which doesn’t bode well should the Vols’ shooting struggles continue.

What: Midwest Region, Sweet 16

Tipoff time: 10:09 p.m. ET Friday

TV: TBS

Location: Detroit

Tennessee vs. Creighton odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.

Expert picks

Model projection: Tennessee by 5.5, total 145

See all of Austin Mock’s projections for the Sweet 16

Players to watch

Tennessee

Dalton Knecht, senior guard, SEC Player of the Year, first-team All-SEC
Zakai Zeigler, junior guard, SEC Defensive Player of the Year, first-team All-SEC, All-SEC defensive team
Jonas Aidoo, junior forward, second-team All-SEC, All-SEC defensive team

Creighton

Baylor Scheierman, senior guard, first-team All-Big East
Ryan Kalkbrenner, senior center, Big East Defensive Player of the Year, second-team All-Big East
Trey Alexander, junior guard, second-team All-Big East

More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Creighton’s Greg McDermott and Baylor Scheierman: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)