Alabama vs. Grand Canyon expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament second-round game

In the wild, antelopes rely on their speed and change of direction to avoid predators. Grand Canyon will need to employ a similar approach against favored Alabama in its second-round matchup of the men’s NCAA Tournament on Sunday evening.

Grand Canyon has already pulled off one upset, defeating No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s 75-66 on Friday night for the program’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win. The Lopes used a balanced attack and took full advantage of the free-throw line to knock off the Gaels. But after playing one of the most deliberate teams in the country, Grand Canyon must shift gears to try and keep up with an Alabama team that lit up the scoreboard in its opening win.

Coach Nate Oats’ preferred style, also known as “space and pace,” is all about scoring efficiently, which means a lot of 3-pointers, layups and free throws. Bama checked all three boxes in its 109-96 win over Charleston on Friday, connecting on 13 3-pointers, shooting 60 percent for the game overall, and going 24-for-37 from the line. Star guard Mark Sears poured in 30 points, while Latrell Wrightsell Jr. was near-perfect (5-for-6) from long range.

Grand Canyon won’t be able to slow down Alabama’s pace, but the key for the Crimson Tide is whether their shots are falling or not. Neither team is a force on the glass (both were out-rebounded in the first round), but the Lopes are a top-50 team in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, whereas that end of the court is a complete afterthought for Bama.

Defense aside, Grand Canyon will have to find a way to score to match Alabama’s firepower. That’s where guard Tyon Grant-Foster comes in. The WAC Player of the Year had a game-high 22 points in the win over Saint Mary’s and he’s exceeded that total in 10 other contests this season.

Grant-Foster and the rest of the Lopes will have to improve their 3-point shooting (5-for-18 vs. Gaels) to pull off another upset; but they are proficient at getting to the free-throw line, averaging 26 attempts per game. It just so happens that the Crimson Tide aren’t too far behind (23.2) in this category either. So while it’s certainly not the most exciting part to look forward to, a trip to the Sweet 16 could come down to the charity stripe.