Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game

The final game of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament first round is at 10:05 p.m. ET on Friday, between No. 12 Grand Canyon and No. 5 Saint Mary’s. Saint Mary’s is a comfortable favorite in the odds — but not so fast on counting Grand Canyon out.

Our team is split on the winner of this West Regional matchup, and our Bracket Breakers experts say that the two teams’ strengths match up in a way that could cause headaches for both and a window for the Lopes to sneak in.

So let’s get into it! We’ve got a breakdown of both teams’ profiles, plus odds, expert picks and projections for point spread and total.

Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.

No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes

The Lopes just don’t lose often. If a sluggish high-major lets them hang around, it’ll pay.

Strengths: After almost two full years off the court, Tyon Grant-Foster (formerly of Kansas and DePaul) has become the Lopes’ Mr. Everything en route to WAC Player of the Year honors. He takes 23 percent of his team’s shots from the floor and sets the pace with 19.8 points per game. Coach Bryce Drew struck gold with his portal-heavy lineup and has crafted a balanced, battle-tested team that boasts wins over San Diego State and San Francisco, plus a single-digit loss to South Carolina.

Weaknesses: Their tallest rotation player, sophomore Duke Brennan, is 6-foot-10, and although Grand Canyon outrebounded their opponents by roughly five boards per game during the regular season, they play a schedule that doesn’t always present a ton of skilled big men. The NCAA Tournament has historically exposed that type of quality-of-competition gap.

Outlook: The Lopes figure to be a trendy upset pick, but so was New Mexico State during its recent decade-plus of WAC dominance — and the Aggies only broke through with a first-round victory in 2022 at UConn’s expense. So exercise caution. Drew’s Valparaiso and Vanderbilt teams came out on the wrong end of some tournament nail-biters that weren’t entirely his fault, and this team feels more ready for primetime than any other team he’s brought into the bracket.

—Eric Single

No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels

Lifeless entering December, the Gaels have revived thanks to a stellar defense and strong 3-point shooting.

Strengths: “Three and D” is what many NBA teams subscribe to, and the Gaels methodically employ similar tactics without the world-class athletes. Saint Mary’s typically dictates a slower half-court game. That deliberate approach, combined with the Gaels stifling defense (top 10 in effective field goal percentage), ratchets up opponent frustration. The Gaels’ rebounding chops only exacerbate the anguish — they’re top 10 nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. They also blitz the basket consistently from outside. Alex Ducas, Aidan Mahaney and Augustas Marčiulionis are all threats from beyond the arc.

Weaknesses: Teams with athletic downhill guards can cause problems for the Gaels, as we witnessed in their March 2 matchup against Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s gets uncomfortable with speed and direct attacks off the bounce. With non-conference losses to San Diego State, Xavier, Utah and Boise State, some by substantial margins, the Gaels have yet to show they can hang with formidable competition outside the WCC. They’re also poor at making free throws (67.4 percent).

Outlook: Taking liberty with a Dickens’ classic, it was a Tale of Two Seasons for Saint Mary’s. If it resembles the team that clubbed competitors in January and February, Saint Mary’s will make the Sweet 16 for the third time in school history. If not, bitterness will set in.

—Brad Evans