Gonzaga vs. McNeese expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first round game

Gonzaga got hot at the end of the season to make it into the NCAA Tournament for the 25th straight year. Now, it faces everyone’s favorite upset pick of the tournament. However, the Bulldogs are favored by several points.

McNeese carries one of the best records in the NCAA Tournament into its first-round matchup, but many of those wins came against teams lacking talent. The Cowboys faced only two teams ranked in the top 100 of KenPom. Still, McNeese blew out many of those mediocre opponents, and coach Will Wade has NCAA Tournament experience with LSU.

The Cowboys do many things right, from taking many 3-pointers to forcing many steals. Gonzaga coach Mark Few won’t come into this game overlooking McNeese.

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No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Strengths: Will Wade’s bunch has energy for days. The Cowboys are an exceptional defensive team and thrive off the chaos they create. McNeese is in the top 40 at limiting field goal percentage. The Cowboys’ unrelenting pressure created opponent turnovers on nearly 25 percent of possessions. They’re tenacious on the offensive glass, generating a second chance more than 30 percent of the time. Featuring four players who shoot better than 40 percent from the arc while also converting easy transition opportunities, McNeese is a dynamite offensive club, evident in its 54.9 eFG percent for the season.

Weaknesses: Competitive squads equipped with frontcourt size and a suitable ball handler could carve up the Cowboys. At No. 337 in effective height, according to KenPom, they’re diminutive. Also alarming, McNeese feasted on largely meek competition this year. Among tournament teams, it sports one of the lowest non-conference strength-of-schedules in the field. The Cowboys did emerge victorious against the only top-100 KenPom school they faced this year in a road matchup at VCU.

Outlook: A member of the “little guys,” McNeese nevertheless shouldn’t be glossed over. The Cowboys are pesky, well-drilled and markedly efficient on both ends. If matched against a team with questionable guards, they’ll expose them. The small-ball warriors always pack a sharpened sword. Weigh them heavily to advance a line or two.

—Brad Evans

No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Strengths: Gonzaga’s offense gets fans out of their seats like rocking chords of “Born to Run” at a Bruce Springsteen concert. Mark Few’s crew won 14 of its last 16 contests. The Bulldogs improved defensively and are now top 40 in effective field-goal percentage nationally. Not to be discounted, the Zags rarely turn over the ball and generate second-chance opportunities. Forward Graham Ike scored at least 20 points in a seven-game stretch that started on Feb. 10. His dominance in the paint combined with Ryan Nembhard’s floor leadership gives the Bulldogs a deadly 1-2 punch.

Weaknesses: Sporadic conversions from 3-point range limit Gonzaga’s overall offensive impact. Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and Ben Gregg are capable sharpshooters, but only 24.5 percent of the Bulldogs’ scoring production has come on 3s, ranking outside the top 300 nationally. Most discouraging, a formidable interior defensive team featuring a proven frontline could force them into uncomfortable situations.

Outlook: Only weeks ago, Gonzaga’s 24 straight NCAA Tournament appearances streak was in jeopardy. Then, the script flipped. The Bulldogs’ stellar road wins against Kentucky and Saint Mary’s showed the Zags’ evolution. Humming at the most opportune time, they are a likely bracket disrupter.

—Brad Evans