This is the summer the Matt Ryan Regret could really set in in Atlanta.
The player who holds every significant passing record in Falcons history after 14 years and 232 games with the team has been gone for two seasons, and the team already is on its third attempt to replace him. Ryan’s career was so long that fans forgot what life is like in the NFL without a set starter at quarterback. Dane Brugler’s most recent mock draft is a reminder.
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Brugler has the Falcons trading with the New England Patriots to move from No. 8 in the first round to No. 3 and select LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. The move makes perfect sense. In fact, it’s the same move and the same contract terms set forth in The Athletic beat writer mock draft.
The price is steep — this year’s No. 8 and No. 43 and a 2025 first-round pick to move up to No. 3 — and it’s a price that comes with no guarantee of a payoff. Daniels is a dynamic player. He won the 2023 Heisman Trophy after passing for 3,812 yards, rushing for 1,134 and totaling 50 touchdowns last season.
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His dual-threat ability has drawn comparisons to reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson.
“I don’t like to compare myself to anybody, but there are some similarities to what he is doing,” Daniels said. “He is playing at a very high level — kudos to him — and he is the GOAT of this running and throwing, and I am just trying to follow in his footsteps.”
Or he might follow in the footsteps of Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Those are four of the five quarterbacks picked in the top 15 of the 2021 NFL Draft. Two (Wilson and Lance) already have lost their jobs with the teams that picked them, one (Fields) is about to and the other (Jones) may join them soon.
Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick, is the only 2021 first-round quarterback who can be considered a good pick. In other words, staking the future on a rookie quarterback is not a sound statistical plan.
The problem for the Falcons is they may feel like they don’t have a choice other than taking a big swing to get a quarterback, whether it be through free agency or a trade into the top three picks. They have already tried the patient route to replace Ryan. That involved taking decorated University of Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder in the third round of the 2022 draft and hoping the offensive talent around him would position him for success. As a rookie, Ridder backed up former No. 2 pick Marcus Mariota, who got a second chance as a starting quarterback in Atlanta after his first attempt in Tennessee ended unsuccessfully.
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Neither plan worked, so now Atlanta looks like it’s in a position where it has to be aggressive, even overly so, to take advantage of a roster its executives believe is ready to compete for a playoff spot. That’s how the Falcons could end up dealing valuable draft picks for a talented but unproven player.
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Daniels was one of only two players who declined to have his height and weight measured at the NFL combine, which is concerning given that his weight could be an issue in the NFL. He was listed as 6-foot-2, 210 pounds at LSU, and while the eye test confirms the 6-2 range, he looks like he might be under 200 pounds.
That might be a problem for a player who uses his legs as much as Daniels. Only five quarterbacks who weighed less than 205 pounds have started 14 or more games in a season since 2000, according to Yahoo Sports, and Daniels took some big hits in college, hits that certainly could shorten an NFL season.
My biggest issue with Jayden Daniels is that you can hear the Sonic rings get knocked out of him every time he gets hit. #NFLCombine2024 #NFLCombine pic.twitter.com/n5GDzEWzCg
— Joshua Sánchez (@jnsanchez) March 1, 2024
“Going forward, I am going to take fewer hits, but that’s just the competitive person in me, always want to fight for the extra yards,” he said at the combine. “I have been a little too greedy sometimes, but God blessed me with the ability to bounce back up.”
Daniels played three seasons at Arizona State before transferring to LSU, where he averaged 11.7 yards per attempt as a senior. The former four-star high school prospect believes his extended time in college will be a benefit to his professional career.
Lamar listed at 210 at Louisville
Lamar weighed 215 at combine
Lamar weighs 225 nowJayden Daniels listed at 210 at LSU
Easily gets to 220+ within short time entering NFL
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) March 1, 2024
“I mean, just my journey overall to get to this point,” he said. “I walk my journey, and I wouldn’t change it for anything. I wouldn’t trade how I got here or how long it took, or anything like that. When I transferred, I just wanted the opportunity to compete against the best. From 2018 to finishing my last game in 2022. It’s been a long journey, but (it has helped) my growth as a person.”
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Brugler’s mock draft projects he will be the third quarterback selected, behind USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
“I just (want to go) wherever God puts me, wherever I hear my name called and is the best situation for me, I am going to get there and put my head down and work,” he said. “I am just going to be blessed wherever I hear my name called. It’s something that as a kid, I dreamt about. From Day 1, I wanted to play in the NFL and be a part of this fraternity. The dream is a reality real soon.”
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(Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
