NFL teams can begin signing free agents on March 13, but Atlanta Falcons fans won’t have to wait that long for news. Thanks to the league’s two-day “negotiating” period before the beginning of the new league year, news about player movement will begin to leak out Monday.
The Falcons have $36.7 million in salary-cap space, which ranks 13th in the NFL, and they can find more money if necessary by restructuring contracts.
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Owner Arthur Blank said in January that his team will be “active” in free agency.
“I think we’re in one of the best positions we’ve been in for a very long period of time as a franchise,” Blank said on the day he fired Arthur Smith.
Whether that turns out to be true probably depends a lot on how well this free-agency period turns out, so today we’re going to look at five players at five positions of need for the Falcons. Like everything about their offseason, it starts at quarterback.
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The players are listed based on their expected price point. Their spot in The Athletic’s Randy Mueller’s free-agency rankings is listed in parentheses and our preferred pick from each group is in bold. (Some names in Mueller’s rankings don’t make our list based on the probability they will re-sign with their current team and lack of obvious fit in Atlanta.)
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (7)
Baker Mayfield (20)
Sam Darnold (98)
Jacoby Brissett (121)
Tyrod Taylor (103)
Cousins, a 12-year pro with a 76-67-2 career record, is the dream scenario in Atlanta. The Vikings are confident they can get a deal done, but Cousins’ history of getting every single penny he can in negotiations at least gives the Falcons some hope. Cousins’ familiarity with the Sean McVay offense (some version of which Atlanta will run under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson) would smooth the transition, and the fact that Cousins’ wife Julie is a Georgia native who attended UGA might at least give the Falcons a selling point. Cousins is 35 and coming off an Achilles injury, which means there’s some risk involved, especially at the price point Cousins will command (something in the range of three years, $90 million, maybe?), but it’s a risk Atlanta should take if it can.
Jacoby Brissett comes in and comes up with a TD pass 🎯
📺: #WASvsLAR on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/7stlYdAJu7— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023
The name recognition in the free-agency quarterback market falls off quickly after Cousins. At least, the names with consensus positive feelings around them fall off quickly. Mayfield and Darnold are NFL household names, but it hasn’t always been for the right reasons. Which brings us to Brissett. He has fewer starts (and a worse career winning percentage) than Taylor, but he is five years younger. At 31, Brissett has started 48 games for four teams. He’s played for five teams overall, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio (2.2) ranks 26th in the NFL among quarterbacks with more than 300 passing attempts since he joined the league in 2016, according to TruMedia. Brissett won’t excite the fan base, but he’s a pro who would be a good influence on the young skill players on offense, including a rookie QB who could learn the offense by backing him up.
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Edge
Brian Burns (1)
Danielle Hunter (2)
Jonathan Greenard (11)
Za’Darius Smith (9)
Bryce Huff (18)
How badly Atlanta needs an edge rusher will depend on how it handles its two in-house free agents. Last year’s starters, Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, are set to hit the market. Both had solid 2023 seasons (tying for the team lead in sacks with 6 1/2), but both are north of 30 (well so in Campbell’s case).
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If the Falcons let Campbell and Dupree walk, the good news is the pool of available outside candidates is deep. The bad news is not many of them are going to come cheap. Burns and Hunter will be especially expensive, although it looks like Burns’ price might come in draft picks if the Panthers decide to apply the franchise tag to him and then trade him.
Greenard, on the other hand, would be a bit of a bargain. The 26-year-old Georgia native has played four seasons in Houston, and he hit his stride last season, posting a career-high 12 1/2 sacks and 22 quarterback hits. On top of that, he’s a willing and effective run defender, and it seems like he could easily transition from end in the Texans’ 4-3 scheme to an outside linebacker in Atlanta’s 3-4 base defensive alignment.
Defensive tackle
Justin Madubuike (3)
DaQuan Jones (25)
D.J. Reader (47)
A’Shawn Robinson (54)
Greg Gaines (141)
At the moment, the Falcons have two defensive linemen who weigh more than 300 pounds — Ta’Quon Graham (307 pounds) and Albert Huggins (305 pounds). Defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake’s 3-4 scheme could use more size at nose tackle. If Madubuike makes it to the market, he’s going to be very expensive. And he’s not that likely to make the market.
There are other intriguing options, though, who will come with a better price tag. Reader is my pick because he’ll be a relative value coming off an injury, he’s 335 pounds, he plays with a high motor and he has proved to be an effective eater of double-teams in his eight-year career. He had only one sack last season with the Bengals, but who cares? You’re signing this guy to hold the middle of the line and make the run game a nightmare.
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Wide receiver
Calvin Ridley (23)
Darnell Mooney (29)
Josh Reynolds (39)
Gabe Davis (45)
Byron Pringle (110)
Before you say, “There’s no way Atlanta would re-sign Calvin Ridley!” remember this: Falcons coach Raheem Morris was Ridley’s wide receivers coach in Atlanta in 2018 and 2019, and Morris mentioned Ridley favorably at the NFL Scouting Combine last week. From Ridley’s perspective, he might be motivated to return to Atlanta to make the point that the relationship’s original fracture wasn’t his fault. That wouldn’t necessarily be true, but it could play into his thinking. That being said, it’s probably not the best move for Atlanta.
Pringle would be a better option. The five-year pro is 6-2 with 4.4ish speed. He would give Atlanta’s receiving corps more downfield oomph, which it needs, and at a good contract number.
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Cornerback
Jaylon Johnson (8)
Keisean Nixon (67)
Steven Nelson (69)
Ronald Darby (72)
Stephon Gilmore (76)
The Falcons will have to pay A.J. Terrell soon, so they can’t spend too much on another cornerback. That means Johnson probably is out of the question. However, there are some other intriguing options.
On New Year's Day last season, Keisean Nixon took it 105-yards to the 🏠
📺: #GBvsMIN — Sunday 8:20pm ET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/eNCt8bBHqk— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2023
Nixon has seen his career take off in the last two seasons, starting 17 games at cornerback and compiling 1,791 return yards in Green Bay. With Avery Williams returning this season from a torn ACL, the Falcons don’t necessarily need a returner, but Cordarrelle Patterson almost certainly won’t return, so another guy who can do the job would be welcomed by special teams coordinator Marquice Williams.
(Photo of Jonathan Greenard: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
