The Athletic has live coverage of Chiefs vs Dolphins in the AFC wild card matchup.
The NFL changes in a hurry.
About two months ago, the Philadelphia Eagles appeared destined for a return trip to the Super Bowl. Last month, the San Francisco 49ers were viewed as the class of the league before they made way for the Baltimore Ravens.
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The point being, before anyone assumes Super Bowl LVIII is destined to be another Ravens-Niners clash, don’t discount how quickly the stakes can change when an elite quarterback delivers a flawless performance or an under-appreciated defense holds serve against an allegedly superior offensive attack.
There are six new teams in this year’s playoff field — three from each conference, all of which are playing on wild-card weekend — with newcomers like the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans injecting life into a spectacular season of storylines. Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers coaches Sean McVay and Mike Tomlin have their teams back in the postseason. Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is making his debut, while Aaron Rodgers has been out of action for months.
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Even the conference favorites and their quarterbacks have question marks. Lamar Jackson seems to be on the verge of his second MVP award, but can the Ravens QB win his second career playoff game? Or what happens if the Niners and Brock Purdy are in a tight contest in the fourth quarter? Josh Allen and the Bills are the hottest team in the league, but can they cut down on costly mistakes? Can the Chiefs give Patrick Mahomes enough help to defend their title? And will the Cowboys reach their potential or will they falter on this stage once again?
It should be a fantastic tournament, and The Athletic polled seven executives and coaches around the league, all granted anonymity so they could talk openly about other teams, to get a feel for how this opening weekend will play out.
No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7) vs. No. 5 Cleveland Browns (11-6)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Expert picks: Browns 7, Texans 0
The Texans have returned to the playoffs for the first time in four years, and they’ve resumed their perch in the Saturday afternoon time slot. That’s not just a figment of your imagination, either. They’ve been in this 4:30 p.m. Saturday window six times since the 2012 postseason — twice as many as anyone else, with only five other teams getting multiple draws.
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Anyway, first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud have been one of the league’s best turnaround stories this season, and the future appears as bright as ever in Houston.
But the future, according to those polled for this story, is not Saturday.
“The Browns defense and (Joe) Flacco’s playoff experience help close out a close game,” an executive said.
Most of the voters cited the Browns defense, which allowed the fewest yards in the league, as the reason for their selection.
“The defense is too good,” a coach said.
An executive added, “Defense dominates.”
The Browns won in Houston, 36-22, in Week 16, but Stroud missed the game with a concussion.
While Stroud appears on the verge of an Offensive Rookie of the Year award, the other quarterback was viewed as a difference-maker in the game.
Flacco, who turns 39 next week, has won four of his five starts since signing with the Browns, and he’s delivered a career-best four consecutive games with at least 300 passing yards. Flacco is also 10-5 in playoff games, though all were with the Ravens. He hasn’t played in the postseason since 2014.
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) vs. No. 6 Miami Dolphins (11-6)
Kickoff: 8:10 p.m. ET Saturday
Expert picks: Chiefs 7, Dolphins 0
The Chiefs look as vulnerable as they ever have in the Patrick Mahomes era, as they’ve dropped four of his last seven starts. They’ve been plagued by receiver mistakes since the season-opening loss to the Lions, and that factor appears to have permeated to Mahomes as he’s been holding the ball a little longer than necessary lately.
But those relative imperfections didn’t deter the voters from delivering another unanimous selection.
“Mahomes in crunch time,” an executive said to explain his decision.
It also helps the Chiefs’ cause that they’ve allowed the second-fewest points and yards in the league this season. They’ve also been consistent, only twice allowing more than 21 points and not since Week 13 against the Packers.
“The defense is good this year, and they’ll slow Miami down along with the weather,” a coach said.
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The weather is very much in the Chiefs’ favor, as temperatures are expected to be in the single digits and could fall below zero. That may not help the Dolphins offense or a roster that has been dealing with a late-season string of injuries.
“I can’t pick against Kansas City — at home, in the playoffs,” an executive said. “Miami is beat up, as well.”
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The Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000. And while they’ve been to the postseason in back-to-back years, they’re short on signature victories. They were 1-4 against teams that finished the season with a winning record.
Still, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the stage to prove his doubters wrong. A win against Mahomes would be the signature moment of his young development.
But?
“Mahomes is better than Tua,” an executive said.
No. 2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) vs. No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Monday
Expert picks: Bills 6, Steelers 1
The Bills are the hottest team in the NFL with a five-game winning streak, but the Steelers’ three consecutive victories are the second most in the AFC.
The Bills didn’t have any room for error after their 37-34 overtime loss to the Eagles in Week 12, but they haven’t lost since. They’ve knocked off the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins in that spurt to steal the AFC East crown from Miami.
“Buffalo is heating up at the right time,” an executive said.
The vote was simpler for another exec, who merely stated, “Josh Allen.”
The Bills quarterback has played well during the winning streak, though the passing numbers aren’t necessarily astronomical. He has only five passing touchdowns, two games with a completion percentage north of 55 percent and one 300-yard performance during the stretch. His two end-zone picks against the Dolphins nearly doomed their shot at a home playoff game before his dominant fourth quarter.
The difference? Allen has taken control on the ground with six rushing touchdowns and 182 yards during the winning streak. Running back James Cook has also been better since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator for Ken Dorsey.
The Bills have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league, and the Steelers are starting quarterback Mason Rudolph, who has played well during the three-game winning streak but still has question marks considering this is the first time he’s started multiple games since 2019.
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“(The Bills are a) better team,” two executives echoed.
A third said, “The defense will limit the Steelers’ production.”
But one executive broke from the grain, citing the Steelers’ ability to hang tough in close games and play sound defense across the board, even though they won’t have outside linebacker T.J. Watt (knee injury) and his 19 sacks.
Another factor: The Steelers are 6-1 when forcing multiple turnovers this season.
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“This is a tough matchup for Buffalo,” the Steelers voter said. “This game might not have many possessions. If (Allen) turns it over, Pittsburgh can take advantage, and those two running backs can have some success.”
No. 2 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9-8)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Cowboys 7, Packers 0
Perhaps the Cowboys will again stumble in January, but the voters don’t see it happening this weekend.
The Cowboys have been dominant for stretches, and quarterback Dak Prescott led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and 410 completions. He posted career highs in completion percentage (69.5) and passer rating (105.9), along with the second-most yards of his career (4,516) and his lowest interception percentage (1.5) since 2018.
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The Cowboys have also won 16 consecutive home games, with six of their eight victories in Dallas this season by at least 20 points.
“More talented and too good at home,” an executive said.
That sentiment was echoed by almost every voter.
The Packers won their last three games — all against teams with losing records — to claim the tiebreaker over the Seahawks and Saints for the final playoff spot. They weren’t expected to be in this position with Rodgers’ $40 million in dead cap space on the books, but Love played well in his first full season as the starter.
“I like Jordan Love, but that defense worries me,” an executive said. “I think Dallas will be able to move the ball and score on them, especially at home.”
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The Packers defense ranked 10th in points and 17th in yards, so they might have a hard time holding up against the Cowboys.
But the potential for a great equalizer? The Packers have rushed for 463 yards during their three-game winning streak, while the Cowboys ranked 16th against the run.
The Cowboys are 3-2 in one-possession games this season, and they’ve won only twice when trailing at any point after the first quarter. Sure, the Cowboys have a penchant for blowout victories, but a solid Packers running game could be the key to avoiding such an outcome.
The Packers were 6-5 in one-possession games this season, so they’re accustomed to close calls. More impressive, they’ve won five of their past six one-possession games.
No. 3 Detroit Lions (12-5) vs. No. 6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Lions 6, Rams 1
There will be no theater this weekend quite like the scene in Detroit.
The Lions are hosting a playoff game for the first time in 30 years, and they’re hoping to end a 32-year drought between postseason victories.
“Detroit will be rocking!” an executive exclaimed.
The Lions were 6-2 this season at Ford Field, and they’ll welcome back quarterback Matthew Stafford for the first time since the 2021 trade. The Rams beat the Lions at SoFi Stadium that season, 28-19.
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The game will likely be determined by ball security, as the Lions were 2-4 this season when they turned it over multiple times. Goff had a stretch earlier in the season when he had three turnovers three times in a span of four games.
“(The Lions) will feed off the energy, but I’m expecting a high-scoring game,” an executive said.
The Rams are back in the playoffs after a 5-12 record in 2022, which was the worst mark in history for a reigning Super Bowl champion. Stafford delivered one of the better statistical seasons of his career with a 62.4 completion percentage, 3,965 yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 15 games.
“I want to pick the Lions at home, but something tells me to not bet against (Rams coach) Sean McVay and Stafford, especially coming back home,” an executive said. “Should be a good one, though.”
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No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) vs. No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday
Expert picks: Eagles 5, Buccaneers 2
This may not be the prettiest game of the weekend, but it might have the most intrigue because of how far the Eagles have fallen. They’ve lost five of six games and they’re visiting a three-time NFC South champion that has won five of six.
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“The Eagles have a chance to get some momentum at the right time,” an executive said.
The Eagles improved to 10-1 in Week 12 after three consecutive wins against the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills, but they have since fallen apart. Their last three losses came against teams that missed the playoffs.
“Philly is a mess,” an executive said.
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The Eagles have changed defensive play callers from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia, but the results have remained. They allowed the third-most points in the league this season, including 30.9 points per game over their last seven outings. The hallmark from their march to the Super Bowl in 2022, the pass rush, dropped off significantly falling from 70 sacks in 2022 to 43 this season.
Meanwhile, the offense has been streaky, failing to score 20 points in four of their last six games but eclipsing the 30-point mark in the other two. Quarterback Jalen Hurts dislocated his right middle finger Sunday, while receiver A.J. Brown left with a knee injury and wideout DeVonta Smith missed the finale with an ankle ailment.
“The offense will rebound,” an executive said. “Hurts will get rolling.”
But how seriously should the Bucs be viewed?
Quarterback Baker Mayfield had the best season of his career, and the offense has had some bright moments under coordinator Dave Canales, though they ranked 20th in scoring. Coach Todd Bowles’ defense largely kept the Bucs competitive, especially over the second half of the season.
(Top photo of Mike McCarthy and Matt LaFleur: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
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