Can the Eagles be revived against the Bucs? Analyzing two major questions

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Wait, another week?

It’s jarring to remember the Philadelphia Eagles are (checks notes), yes, actually in the playoffs. The recency of all the dysfunction that unraveled during the team’s 1-5 finish makes it easy to forget its 10-1 start. The Eagles have yet another chance to prove the postseason is more than just an arbitrary threshold that won’t distinguish them from their latest problems, and that they’re once again a formidable team that can match its talent with a winning plan.

Better yet, in Monday night’s NFC wild-card game, the Eagles will be visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team they beat 25-11 on the road during the initial streak that helped secure a third consecutive playoff berth. The rematch will answer whether the Eagles are anything close to who they were at the start of the season.

A loss quickly sends the organization spiraling into an offseason where it must address hard questions. A win delays that conversation for at least another week, and, perhaps, restores confidence. If the Eagles are to beat the Bucs, they must first answer two pressing questions regarding this late-season stretch.

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Can Matt Patricia better organize his front seven?

We’ve written extensively about how Patricia has more frequently dropped edge rushers in pass coverage, which has been largely unsuccessful as opponents often exploit such plays with mismatches. But, as we’ve pointed out, demoted coordinator Sean Desai also dropped edge rushers in coverage. Patricia has just done so almost twice as often.

The Eagles consider it a favorable possibility when they’re already fielding edge rusher-heavy packages against offenses that utilize run-heavy formations. They may drop their edge rushers again Monday night against the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay deploys 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) on 23.7 percent of its plays, less than only five other teams.

Looking back, the Bucs opened their Week 3 game by using 12 personnel on their first two plays. But Ko Kieft barely qualifies as a tight end. He’s basically a ranging fullback. He’s 6-foot-5, 265 pounds, and he’s only been targeted five times out of his 207 offensive snaps this season. So, when the Bucs fielded Kieft in 12 personnel, the Desai-led defense often responded by going with a five-man look along the defensive line, in which standing edge rushers Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat bracketed three interior linemen: Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis and Milton Williams.

Since Sweat is officially listed as a defensive end, and Reddick a linebacker, the look is technically a base 4-3. But due to its arrangement and responsibilities, it is essentially a base 3-4 with Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow playing inside linebacker. Patricia often went with the same look against the Arizona Cardinals, another tight end-heavy team, who averaged over 5.6 yards per carry against Philly’s five-man lines. And since the Bucs deployed 12 personnel on 21 of their 64 plays (32.8 percent) against the Carolina Panthers in Week 18, the Eagles may see the offensive package at least as often as they did the last time they played in Tampa (22.7).

Will Patricia turn to the hybrid 3-4?

It’s again worth questioning if Philly’s edge rushers are best equipped for what Patricia’s asking them to do.

Sweat and Brandon Graham have both dropped in coverage on less than 5 percent of their total defensive snaps in their careers.

Reddick, a former 3-4 inside linebacker, dropped back frequently in three of his four seasons with the Cardinals. But Reddick has demonstrated he’s significantly a better fit as an edge rusher. He’s had back-to-back Pro Bowl nods while compiling 27 sacks in two seasons with the Eagles while dropping in coverage only 6.3 percent of the time.

The Eagles think rookie Nolan Smith, who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, can fulfill coverage duties. But Smith’s been consistently exploited by opponents. On Sunday, Saquon Barkley caught a 46-yard pass with Smith trailing behind.

Still, the hybrid 3-4 look has advantages against the run. On the first drive of the Week 3 game, the Bucs tried to befuddle the Eagles’ front with pulling offensive linemen and a tricky zone-read handoff, but Cunningham did a nice job of staying with the running back and shedding his blocker to limit Rachaad White to a 5-yard gain. But, again, the Eagles should have the advantage against the run with such a look. Yet, there were signs as early as that first Tampa Bay game that Philadelphia would have problems against the pass while dropping edge rushers.

When the Bucs went to their three-receiver packages, the Eagles chose to sub out Cunningham for cornerback Josh Jobe, creating a 5-1-5 look that they’ve also used in recent weeks. This allowed the Eagles to present a strong front in a third-and-3 scenario against the Bucs, prepared for a possible run. While considering a pass, Desai wasn’t as much interested in dropping Reddick in coverage. He instead used Smith, who, in this example, covered five-time Pro Bowl receiver Mike Evans. But Desai didn’t do this without supplying Smith with assistance. Safety Reed Blankenship was positioned in the deep end of the field, ready to help with whoever might break free, with Jobe and cornerback James Bradberry covering the other two receivers in the bunched formation.

Still, the Bucs picked up an easy first down. Baker Mayfield saw plenty of space between Jobe and Chris Godwin, and Mayfield only needed 1.65 seconds to complete the 7-yard pass along the left sideline. That’s far too little time for any rush to get to a quarterback, much less the four-man rush Desai decided to send.

Patricia unsuccessfully tried to create more pressure out of 5-1-5 looks against the New York Giants. On the first play of the second drive, safety Kevin Byard’s blitz left the middle of the field vacant, and Tyrod Taylor easily hit Wan’Dale Robinson for a 33-yard gain. Four plays later, the 5-1-5 look also made the Eagles vulnerable against an outside run. Morrow, the lone linebacker in the middle, got sealed off by a blocker and a lane emerged for Barkley to gain 11 yards.

The Giants mimicked the Cardinals by using similar blocking strategies to exploit this defensive look. The Cardinals rushed for 221 yards against Philadelphia partly by disguising pulling blockers who gave them a numbers advantage. On Barkley’s 11-yard run, the Giants used pre-snap motion to essentially give Daniel Bellinger a head-start as a pulling blocker against Reddick.

Bellinger bumped Reddick outside, and tight end Darren Waller blocked Morrow to generate the lane for Barkley.

There were signs against the Giants that the Eagles could be better equipped against such offensive adjustments while deploying their standard nickel packages.

Reddick rushed off the left edge and tackled Barkley for a 5-yard loss to help force a punt on the first drive of the game. On the Giants’ fourth drive, they attempted to again gain a numbers advantage by motioning Bellinger, but the Eagles appeared to be more organized to neutralize it by having two linebackers available.

Bellinger blocked Smith along the left edge. But, with Morrow positioned inside, Cunningham flowed with the motion of the play and shed a blocker while limiting Barkley to a 4-yard gain.

A drive later, the Eagles were once again better positioned for a similar look out of their nickel defense. Bellinger motioned to block Reddick along the right edge and, with the number of defenders available in the box, defensive lineman Marlon Tuipulotu was able to find a crease within the zone-blocking scheme to drag Barkley down for a 1-yard loss.

It’s possible Patricia now favors a base nickel, at least when opponents begin to attempt the same motion blocks on run plays. The Eagles deployed nickel 80.3 percent of the time against the Giants, according to TruMedia. Its vulnerabilities against the Giants’ passing attack seemed to have less to do with schematics and more to do with poor positioning and tackling. Bradley Roby missed Barkley on a 5-yard swing pass, and Cunningham collided with Bradberry, clearing the way for a 19-yard gain by Robinson. Barkley rushed for a 3-yard touchdown on the next play, widening the Giants’ lead to 17-0.

When asked whether he found the Eagles were better suited playing nickel in such situations, Patricia said on Tuesday in a general sense that, against the Giants, there were in-game moments on the sideline where Philadelphia discovered it liked certain defensive looks better than it thought. Perhaps that discovery will influence the Eagles’ game plan against the Bucs.

“That definitely happens in games,” Patricia said. “Playing a team like the Giants, really, almost back to back with that and some of the different looks they gave, there were some of the adjustments in the game without getting too specific when it was like, ‘Hey, this is a better group to handle some of the movements that we’re getting now.'”

Can the Eagles get the ball to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith?

It’s still uncertain if Brown or DeVonta Smith will play in Monday’s game against the Buccaneers. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni addressed the receivers along with Philadelphia’s long list of injuries on Monday by saying he was “hopeful on everybody,” although they’ll “see how the week progresses.” Sirianni also acknowledged the obvious after Sunday’s loss — “things change … when two big playmakers are not on the field” — but said, “We didn’t attack well enough as a coaching staff when A.J. was on the field.”

“We’ve got to make sure we figure out how to do that next week going into Tampa,” Sirianni said.

Brown began his six-game streak of 125-plus yards against the Bucs in Week 3. He amassed 49 catches, 831 yards and five touchdown receptions during that span, but opposing defenses made Brown seem much more human in Philly’s final nine games. Brown finished the season with 1,456 yards, second most in team history, and he might’ve broken his own single-season record from 2022 (1,496) on Sunday had he not exited the game. Still, an Eagles offense that’s failed to score 20 points in four of the last six games can partly explain its regression by its difficulty to get Brown involved.

In Week 3, the Eagles were able to target Brown while facing both single-high and two-high coverages. Jalen Hurts completed deep passes to Brown against both defensive structures on back-to-back plays in the first quarter. The Eagles opened the game deploying a run-oriented, 12-personnel package that helped running back D’Andre Swift gain 8 yards on their first play of the game. The Bucs chose to bring a safety down in a single-high to better stop the run, which made them vulnerable when they rushed five defenders on the subsequent second-and-2.

To send five defenders after Hurts, the Bucs chose to play man coverage, and the Eagles exploited this decision by having a tight end set a pick for Brown on a crossing route that turned into a 28-yard gain.

The Bucs dropped both safeties into a two-high look on the following play, likely leery of another explosive pass. But the Eagles, still in their two-tight end set, once again found a way to funnel the ball to Brown. In what was almost the same look, Brown swapped spots with DeVonta Smith and ran a deep cross.

The Eagles kept the middle of the field open by keeping the deep safeties occupied with DeVonta Smith, Brown and tight end Jack Stoll’s initial vertical routes, and Dallas Goedert kept the linebackers occupied with a short crosser. Hurts fired upon Brown’s break inside, and they connected for a 16-yard gain.

The sequence demonstrated the basics of what made the Eagles a lethal offense in 2022 and the beginning of the 2023 season. By leveraging a talented running back behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, they forced opponents to drop a defender in the box. The single-high look gave Brown or DeVonta Smith one-on-ones on the outside, and after the Eagles exploited this with either receiver, they could interchangeably choose between a pass or run.

Of course, the schematic chess match is more complex than how defenses structure their safeties. As The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen pointed out last month, opposing defenses have slowed the Eagles’ offense this season partly by playing Cover 4 and Cover 6 against them 9.1 percent more than last season.

Hurts has been particularly ineffective against Cover 6, a blended concept in which defenses play Cover 4 to the strong side of the field and Cover 2 to the weak side. In Brown’s recent nine-game stretch, Hurts is 39-of-65 for 384 yards and two interceptions (63.8 passer rating) against Cover 6, according to TruMedia. He’s only managed to target Brown 13 times against the coverage, with seven completions for 57 yards.

Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson attributed the uptick in Cover 4 and Cover 6 to a broader trend across the NFL in which defenses are collectively attempting to cut off explosive plays, urge quarterbacks to settle for shorter passes and therefore force offenses to “try to go on these long, long drives.”

“A lot of people in the past couple years, there’d be times where we’d get a lot of single-high, press man, and the ball’s up and we’re getting shots,” Johnson said. “That hasn’t been the case this year. So, we have to find some different ways to generate stuff.”

The Eagles have been largely successful in producing both yardage and points on their offensive drives in 2023. They rank sixth in average yards per drive (34.0) and seventh in points (2.33). They also have been more than capable of generating longer possessions. They had 39 drives that involved 10 or more plays in the regular season, second most in the NFL. They also averaged 4.23 points on those drives, which ranked sixth in the league.

But 15.3 percent of Philly’s drives ended in turnovers, third most in the NFL. Hurts threw a career-high 15 interceptions, and he, DeVonta Smith and Brown each lost untimely fumbles against the Dallas Cowboys in their 33-13 loss in Week 14. On Sunday, Brown lost a fumble at the Giants’ 18 on the reception in which he injured his knee.

Hurts was also pressured more frequently in 2023 (20 percent) than in 2022 (17.7). Hurts ranks 30th with a 75.2 passer rating when facing a pass rush of five or more defenders, according to TruMedia. Defenses, aware of this tendency, sent five or more pass rushers after Hurts 203 times this season. Only Jared Goff (217) and Jordan Love (213) were rushed by five-plus players more. But both Goff (99.6 passer rating) and Love (94.7) are far more successful in such situations.

Now-former Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale blitzed Hurts 13 times during the first half of Sunday’s game. Hurts, who was sacked twice, was 5-of-12 for 41 yards on those plays. Sirianni acknowledged Monday that the Eagles didn’t have the right answers against the Giants’ blitz, a troubling statement considering it was their second meeting in three weeks.

In reviewing the film, the Eagles often used running back Kenneth Gainwell to assist the offensive line in six-man protections, especially on third downs. This limited Hurts’ downfield options to four receivers, whom the Giants blanketed while keeping a free safety deep in the middle of the field, making any deep throw by Hurts risky. Hurts often rolled out of the pocket, searching for options that did not emerge. On the first drive of the game, the Eagles motioned Olamide Zaccheaus to an apparent hot route along the sideline, and Hurts either didn’t see Zaccheaus or believed there was some calculated risk in attempting the throw.

“The ones that we chose to do yesterday, they weren’t good enough and so that’s going to be on me,” Sirianni said on Monday. “Because it starts with the plan that we put together, and, so, it wasn’t good enough yesterday. We have our ways that we’re going to fix it. We have our ways that we’re going to move forward with it.”

(Photo: Kim Klement Neitzel / USA Today)