On Feb. 25, 1998, Russell Tyrone Jones made a bold, off-the-cuff proclamation that would change everything. Jones — better known by his stage name, Ol’ Dirty Bastard — interrupted Shawn Colvin’s Grammy win for Song of the Year with a rant that included this immortal line: “Wu-Tang is for the children.”
ODB (RIP) was upset that Wu-Tang Clan’s sophomore effort, “Wu-Tang Forever,” was beaten out for best rap album by Puff Daddy. History, it’s safe to say, sides with him. But sometimes, forever doesn’t mean what you thought. Just a few days after this soliloquy, Gonzaga lost in the 1998 West Coast Conference tournament under first-year head coach Dan Monson, ending its NCAA Tournament chances. Coincidence? Well, yes. Absolutely.
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But it also highlights just how long ago it was since the Zags missed March Madness. We all know what happened next. Monson led Gonzaga to the Elite Eight in 1999 before leaving for Minnesota and handing the reins to Mark Few, who built the program into a powerhouse. Any children born after April 1998 have never known a world without the Zags in the big dance; the school’s 24 consecutive tournament bids rank as the third-longest active streak behind only Kansas and Michigan State, and it has seemed like Gonzaga would forever be gobbling up high seeds.
Yet here we are.
Heading into Thursday night’s game against Pepperdine, Gonzaga (9-4 against Division I opponents) was just 56th in the NET. Other team sheet metrics, like KenPom (29th) and BPI (26th), look more favorable, but the results-based KPI lists the Zags as 78th. That’s because the results have been lacking, to put it kindly. While Quad 1 wins aren’t the end-all, be-all, no team has earned an at-large bid without a Quad 1 triumph in the NET era. The Zags are 0-4 in Quad 1 and only have three such games remaining as things stand now: at Kentucky on Feb. 10, then on the road against San Francisco and Saint Mary’s to close the regular season. They also haven’t beaten a top-75 or likely NCAA Tournament team, as their best wins to date have come against No. 78 Syracuse and No. 90 USC.
Gonzaga did what it does best against Pepperdine, thumping an outmatched league mate and improving its efficiency numbers. But the WCC, which has had multiple bids in the last four NCAA Tournaments, offers more potholes than potential resume boosters. It’s ranked 11th among conferences by KenPom and by the NET, trailing the Missouri Valley. A disappointing start by Saint Mary’s paired with BYU’s exodus to the Big 12 make this look like a one-bid league in 2024.
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And if someone else wins the WCC tournament? There could be legitimate sweating in Spokane on Selection Sunday for the first time this century. The Zags have been double-digit seeds five times under Few, most recently a No. 11 in 2016. But each of those times, they won the WCC tourney and the automatic bid. Lately, things have been wrapped up well before then; they’ve been a top-4 seed in each of the past six tournaments. That number would be seven if not for the cancellation of the 2020 event, in which they were headed toward a No. 1 seed, a feat they’ve accomplished five times since 2013. This is a poorly timed dip, as the off-campus Spokane Arena is a first- and second-round site and may not get a chance to host the hometown team.
Gonzaga remained ranked in the AP poll on Monday for the 142nd straight week, an abject failure by lazy voters. We have this team as a No. 10 seed this week, mostly based on projecting the auto-bid from the WCC tourney — an event in which, traditionally, Zags rule everything around them. We still find it far more likely than not that they will make it to 25 straight NCAA Tournaments, and probably be a major problem for whomever they face. But the past guarantees nothing, and this year’s group has a lot of work to do to create a better tomorrow.
Some other notes on our second bracket, now 72 days before Selection Sunday:
• Our top four seeds remain the same, with Arizona dropping from No. 2 to No. 4 overall after its blowout loss at Stanford. We saw some other bracketologists push the Wildcats to the 2-seed line and elevate UConn to No. 1 earlier this week, which seemed overly reactionary. Arizona led UConn in every team-sheet metric, had four Quad 1 wins (including a true road win at Duke) versus just one for the Huskies and had played a stronger schedule. Then the Wildcats dominated shorthanded Colorado on Thursday night, a game that was a Q1 at tipoff but slipped to Q2 after the Buffaloes were thoroughly manhandled. Plus, UConn has its own double-digit road loss in-conference (Seton Hall) and continues to be without star big man Donovan Clingan.
• The hardest decision this week came at the end of the No. 2 line. Florida Atlantic dropped three seed lines to No. 5. One Quad 4 loss (Bryant) can be forgiven; a second one (Florida Gulf Coast), not so much. Most of the candidates for the No. 8 overall spot either have great metrics and a soft resume (i.e., BYU), or vice versa. We went a choice in the latter category: Memphis, which is 7-2 in Quads 1 and 2 and has wins over Texas A&M (road), Clemson, Virginia, Arkansas and VCU. The Tigers’ computer numbers (41st in NET, 36th in KenPom before Thursday’s nail-biting win at Tulsa, which included a potentially serious knee injury to guard Caleb Mills) don’t suggest a seed anywhere near this lofty, though KPI has them No. 3. We don’t feel great about it, but this will sort itself out soon. Probably.
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• Seton Hall’s win at Providence on Wednesday was impactful for two reasons. One, it got the Pirates — who gained their second Q1 win — the final at-large bid in our field. And Friars star Bryce Hopkins suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second half. We dropped Providence down to the 10 line following the loss and the tough injury news.
• The Final Four pairings this week are Midwest vs. West and South vs. East, based on our seed list, which you can find below. Once again, teams without a win in Quads 1 and 2 were not considered for at-large bids (looking at you, Cincinnati, Texas and TCU). And we swear we didn’t plan the Pitino vs. Pitino First Four matchup of New Mexico vs. St. John’s and didn’t even realize it until well after bracketing the game. But, yeah, that would get us a lot more interested in the play-in round.
• Questions? Gripes? Bring ’em to the comments section and we’ll try to respond, as long as things remain civil and courteous. You know, for the children.
| First Four Out | Next Four Out | Last Four In | Last Four Byes |
|---|---|---|---|
Oregon | Butler | New Mexico | Providence |
Kansas State | Virginia Tech | Northwestern | Nebraska |
Wake Forest | Texas Tech | St. John's | Utah State |
Arkansas | St. Bonaventure | Seton Hall | Florida |
SEC | 9 |
Big East | 7 |
Big Ten | 7 |
Big 12 | 6 |
ACC | 5 |
Mountain West | 5 |
Pac-12 | 3 |
AAC | 2 |
1 | Purdue | AQ |
2 | Houston | AQ |
3 | Kansas | |
4 | Arizona | AQ |
5 | UConn | AQ |
6 | Marquette | |
7 | Tennessee | AQ |
8 | Memphis | AQ |
9 | Clemson | AQ |
10 | Kentucky | |
11 | North Carolina | |
12 | Wisconsin | |
13 | Illinois | |
14 | BYU | |
15 | Colorado State | AQ |
16 | Duke | |
17 | Florida Atlantic | |
18 | Baylor | |
19 | Oklahoma | |
20 | Auburn | |
21 | Villanova | |
22 | Texas A&M | |
23 | Creighton | |
24 | San Diego State | |
25 | Ohio State | |
26 | Alabama | |
27 | Michigan State | |
28 | Utah State | |
29 | Colorado | |
30 | Iowa State | |
31 | Dayton | AQ |
32 | Nevada | |
33 | Virginia | |
34 | Miami | |
35 | Ole Miss | |
36 | South Carolina | |
37 | Gonzaga | AQ |
38 | James Madison | AQ |
39 | Mississippi State | |
40 | Providence | |
41 | Nebraska | |
42 | Grand Canyon | AQ |
43 | Utah State | |
44 | Princeton | AQ |
45 | Florida | |
46 | Indiana State | AQ |
47 | New Mexico | |
48 | Northwestern | |
49 | St. John's | |
50 | Seton Hall | |
51 | McNeese State | AQ |
52 | UC Irvine | AQ |
53 | Liberty | AQ |
54 | Akron | AQ |
55 | Weber State | AQ |
56 | Purdue Fort Wayne | AQ |
57 | Charleston | AQ |
58 | Samford | AQ |
59 | Morehead State | AQ |
60 | Longwood | AQ |
61 | Lipscomb | AQ |
62 | Colgate | AQ |
63 | UMass Lowell | AQ |
64 | Canisius | AQ |
65 | Southern | AQ |
66 | Denver | AQ |
67 | Norfolk State | AQ |
68 | Merrimack | AQ |
(Top photo of Gonzaga’s Anton Watson and San Diego State’s Jaedon LeDee: James Snook / USA Today)
