After a frustrating push last week — Texas A&M missed covering by a half-point, Mississippi State by one — it all comes down to championship weekend and Army-Navy. That’s 11 games. I need to go 7-4 to finish in the black.
Join me for the ride.
Last week: 6-6-1 against the spread
Season: 70-72-2
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(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
C-USA: New Mexico State at No. 24 Liberty (-10.5), Friday, 7 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Wild to think a team that beat Auburn 31-10 is a 10.5-point underdog in the Conference USA Championship Game. But yes, Liberty is that good. Jamey Chadwell’s team has won its last five games by at least 13 points, and QB Kaidon Salter is the nation’s fourth-rated passer, trailing only Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Milroe.
Liberty 44, New Mexico State 30
Pick: Liberty -10.5
Pac-12: No. 3 Washington vs. No. 5 Oregon (-9.5) in Las Vegas, Friday, 8 p.m. (ABC)
The selection committee and Vegas have taken notice of Oregon’s dominance since its 36-33 loss to Washington on Oct. 14. It has allowed an average 16.0 points in the six games since. Meanwhile, the Huskies offense has been notably less prolific down the stretch. The Ducks have a chance to make a strong closing argument.
Oregon 38, Washington 26
Pick: Oregon -9.5
Big 12: No. 7 Texas (-14.5) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State in Arlington, Texas, Saturday, Noon (ABC)
Texas, which played arguably its best game of its Big 12 season last week against Texas Tech, has one last chance to impress the committee. Oklahoma State, it appears, peaked in its 27-24 Bedlam win on Nov. 4 — since then, it’s lost 45-3 to UCF and barely survived 4-8 Houston and 5-7 BYU. Get ready to watch the Horns run early and often.
Texas 44, Oklahoma State 20
Pick: Texas -14.5
MAC: Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo (-7.5) in Detroit, Saturday, Noon (ESPN)
Toledo, 11-1, won the first round 21-17 at Miami, in a game that saw the teams trade punts throughout the fourth quarter before the Rockets forced a fumble on the Redhawks’ last-ditch drive. Toledo was the better team that day and has looked like the better team the rest of the way. The Rockets make it back-to-back MAC crowns.
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Toledo 24, Miami (Ohio) 10
Pick: Toledo -7.5
MWC: Boise State at UNLV (-2.5), Saturday, 3 p.m. (Fox)
I’m curious to see how the Allegiant Stadium field holds up after a roughly 15-hour turnaround from the Pac-12 Championship Game. Boise did an admirable job fighting its way into the championship game after Andy Avalos’ dismissal and certainly has more big-game experience, but the Rebels seem destined to complete their Cinderella season.
UNLV 38, Boise State 34
Pick: UNLV -2.5
SEC: No. 1 Georgia (-5.5) vs. No. 8 Alabama in Atlanta, Saturday, 4 p.m. (CBS)
Nothing in this one could possibly surprise me more than underdog Alabama’s 41-24 rout in this game two years ago. Georgia’s run defense is not as strong this season, and the Tide are all about running and setting up Jalen Milroe for deep shots. I still think the Dawgs are the better team, but I’ll hedge just a little and pick Bama to cover.
Georgia 31, Alabama 27
The Pick: Alabama +5.5
AAC: SMU at No. 22 Tulane (-3.5), Saturday, 4 p.m. (ABC)
My outlook for this one changed completely when star SMU QB Preston Stone broke his leg last week against Navy. The Mustangs had been rolling for weeks and seemed like a better team than Tulane, record be damned. Maybe they still are. But they’re counting on redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings in the school’s biggest game in decades.
Tulane 34, SMU 28
Pick: Tulane -3.5
Sun Belt: Appalachian State at Troy (-6.5), Saturday, 4 p.m. (ESPN)
Appalachian State was 3-4 at one point before winning its last five games, four of them decidedly and the fifth in overtime against then-undefeated James Madison. But Troy has won nine straight and been so consistent while doing so. The Trojans’ 11th-ranked defense nationally should pose problems for the Mountaineers.
Troy 24, Appalachian State 14
Pick: Troy -6.5
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ACC: No. 4 Florida State (-2.5) vs. No. 14 Louisville in Charlotte, Saturday, 8 p.m. (ABC)
Everyone wants to push eject on FSU after it struggled on offense against Florida in the first game without Jordan Travis. Don’t forget the Noles still boast a top-15 defense and a whole lot of talent. Jeff Brohm has done a tremendous job getting the Cardinals to 10 wins, but Mike Norvell’s team has come too far to fold now.
Florida State 24, Louisville 20
Pick: Florida State -2.5
Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan (-22.5) vs. No. 15 Iowa in Indianapolis, Saturday, 8 p.m. (Fox)
Bill Hancock made a point of emphasizing this week that the committee does not substitute “most deserving” for “best.” Were that the case, Iowa, ranked in the 30s in most computer ratings, would not be sitting in their top 15. The Hawkeyes have been able to eke out close wins over bad Big Ten West teams. Michigan is not that.
Michigan 42, Iowa 0
Pick: Michigan -22.5
Army (-2) vs. Navy in Foxborough, Mass., Dec. 9, 3 p.m. (CBS)
Army bounced back nicely from a midseason rut to win its last three, most notably 23-3 over then-undefeated Air Force. Navy has been a bit more all over the map in coach Brian Newberry’s first season. Like in a lot of Army-Navy games, this one will be close throughout. I’ll give the edge to veteran coach Jeff Monken’s Black Knights.
Army 17, Navy 14
Pick: Army -2
(Photo of Bo Nix: Brandon Sloter / Image Of Sport / Getty Images)
