HOUSTON — Dana Brown does not have a ton of financial flexibility, but he does have a roster to fortify and a championship window to widen. Outside publications consider his farm system one of the worst in the sport. Two franchise cornerstones are scheduled to enter free agency after this season. Two more homegrown standouts are eligible after the next one.
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Parsing Brown’s next move is difficult. This is his first offseason as a general manager, meaning there aren’t many precedents around which to predict the next two months. Neither of his two predecessors encountered this sort of crossroads, either, creating a fascinating conundrum for the Astros’ second-year general manager.
Across his first 12 months in charge, Brown has sounded downright definitive about extending Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker. All four will ask for the sort of contract owner Jim Crane has long been hesitant to give. Brown’s optimism won over some fans, but it is not rooted in reality, resulting in the scenario Jim Duquette described on MLB Network Radio earlier this week.
Former MLB GM Jim Duquette thinks the Astros are listening to trade offers for Alex Bregman pic.twitter.com/9crjpJLmTa
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) November 27, 2023
Two people familiar with the Astros’ thinking dismissed the notion of trading Bregman, but that doesn’t mean Houston isn’t at least listening to what other clubs could offer. It would be negligent not to. Ditto for Tucker, if teams were to inquire.
Both players are borderline irreplaceable for the 2024 Astros, but would bring the sort of return that could ameliorate some of the long-term concerns. Brown’s task is to balance both needs. The team is, first and foremost, committed to championship contention in 2024.
If Houston wants to pare payroll, fortify its farm system and still remain a legitimate World Series contender in 2024, trading from its starting pitching surplus makes far more sense than dealing Bregman or Tucker. And if it’s something Houston does explore, Valdez and José Urquidy profile as the group’s most expendable members.
There is no indication the Astros are discussing either pitcher in trades or that Crane has issued a directive to shed payroll, but Houston’s proximity to the competitive balance tax — and Crane’s reluctance to exceed it — invites wonder at whether the club has considered freeing some space for more flexibility.
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Most outside approximations show the Astros either close to or already exceeding the first luxury tax threshold of $238 million. Crane has paid the competitive balance tax once during his ownership tenure — after the team took on Zack Greinke’s massive contract at the 2019 trade deadline.
People close to Crane maintain he is willing to exceed it again — but in a situation similar to Greinke’s acquisition, one where the team needs a final piece to complete a championship-contending roster. Houston just lost 185 innings from its bullpen to free agency, needs a backup catcher and could benefit from a left-handed hitting outfielder to deepen its bench.
Allowing Brown to exceed the luxury tax this winter could render this entire conversation moot, but if the Astros must remain under it, it’s difficult to see Brown addressing his needs only through free agency.
Moving either Valdez or Urquidy would afford the financial flexibility Brown does not currently have and, perhaps, bring players back who can address the team’s immediate needs. MLB Trade Rumors projects Valdez will earn $12.1 million through the arbitration process in January. Urquidy, meanwhile, is predicted to make $3.5 million in arbitration.
Framber Valdez. No Hitter. 🍾🍾 pic.twitter.com/UdCee9sxxV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 2, 2023
A stable of six other starters with major-league experience — along with Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. slated for midseason returns from elbow surgeries— would make it more palatable to part with a pitcher. Houston has no ready-made replacement for either Bregman or Tucker, its two most valuable position players last season, and a paucity of position player depth in their system. Last season showcased the superior pitching depth they’ve accumulated.
Brown and the Astros could crash a market where starting pitching supply is dwarfing the demand. The team has already tried to trade Urquidy once. Former general manager James Click agreed to ship him to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Willson Contreras during the 2022 deadline, but Crane and manager Dusty Baker teamed to veto the deal.
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If not for a shoulder injury that caused him to miss most of this season, Urquidy would have again been a logical trade candidate around this deadline, too. He is under team control for two more seasons and has thrown just 451 1/3 major-league innings (including the postseason) in his career — a byproduct of shoulder injuries that sidelined him in 2021 and 2023 — but he is still someone that should draw interest.
Valdez is a far more compelling and complicated case. He would yield a much greater return than Urquidy given his durability and stretches of dominance — the same two traits that would make him difficult for the Astros to replace.
Only four pitchers have thrown more innings than Valdez across the past two seasons: Sandy Alcantara, Logan Webb, Miles Mikolas and Gerrit Cole. Valdez has made the last two American League All-Star teams and, if not for Crane and Brown stopping him, may have started last July’s Midsummer Classic.
Valdez had a 4.66 ERA in 14 starts following the All-Star Game — and one of them was a no-hitter. Inconsistencies and implosions, including two games in which he appeared to throw at opposing batters, derailed his otherwise dominant season. Valdez still ended it with a 3.45 ERA and finished ninth in American League Cy Young Award voting.
Valdez is 30 years old, but has thrown just 793 major-league innings. For reference, Aaron Nola is the same age and has logged more than 1,450. He just signed a seven-year, $172 million contract to stay with the Philadelphia Phillies.
A relatively fresh left arm capable of consistent, deep starts — and under team control for two more seasons — would be wildly coveted in a winter where starting pitching is in high demand. It would be a dereliction of duty for Brown not to gauge what sort of package Valdez could bring, especially within a trade market that already includes Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease and, perhaps, Corbin Burnes. Valdez is as accomplished — if not more so — as both Cease and Glasnow.
Trading either Valdez or Urquidy should not stop the Astros from exploring the starting pitching market, as Brown has suggested they may. Injuries to Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy last season offered a reminder of how fast a surplus can become a shortage. It also offers a compelling counterargument to moving either Valdez or Urquidy.
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But, in a world where the Astros do trade Valdez, it stands to reason they could sign or acquire a veteran, back-end starter for less than what Valdez is scheduled to make in arbitration. Valdez is only going to get more expensive and perhaps enigmatic, especially if veteran catcher Martín Maldonado does not return to Houston.
Maldonado could help to calm Valdez down during some of his mid-start meltdowns, but even he could not stop some of the volatility involved in Valdez’s starts. Questions about Valdez’s maturity remain, too.
Brown and Crane must determine whether that fits the team’s long-term vision. If not, perhaps another pitcher could become available in a market where they’re coveted.
(Photo of Valdez: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
