HOUSTON — After sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field for their first playoff win since 2004 and their first postseason series win since 2002, the Minnesota Twins stepped up in weight class and went on the road to test their newfound playoff prosperity against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros.
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They flunked the first test Saturday at Minute Maid Park, losing 6-4 in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. Starter Bailey Ober was removed after allowing three runs in three innings to the Astros’ star-studded lineup. Hall of Famer in-waiting Justin Verlander did what he’s done so many times by shutting down the Twins’ bats.
It took exactly one pitch for the Twins to discover this would be a lot different from facing the Blue Jays lineup. Jose Altuve hammered Ober’s first offering, a 92 mph high fastball, into the Crawford Boxes in left field for a leadoff homer, matching the Twins pitching staff’s combined runs allowed in two games and 18 total innings versus Toronto.
Altuve set the tone for Houston, but it was Yordan Alvarez who dominated the game by hitting a two-run homer off an Ober changeup in the third inning and a solo homer off a Caleb Thielbar slider in the seventh. Alvarez leads all active MLB hitters with a lifetime .588 slugging percentage and, as the Twins feared coming into the series, was matchup-proof by crushing a righty and a lefty.
“It’s tough to game plan for a guy who seems to hit everything,” catcher Ryan Jeffers said. “(Alvarez) is arguably the best hitter in the game right now. And when you, as a pitcher, miss, he doesn’t miss.”
Yordan Alvarez's 7th career #postseason homer pads the @Astros lead. 💥 pic.twitter.com/T4cS1YtULo
— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2023
Verlander struggled with his control and mechanics early, and the Twins took advantage by putting plenty of traffic on the bases. But promising rallies in the first and second innings were wiped out by 6-4-3 double plays on well-struck grounders from Royce Lewis and Michael A. Taylor. And then Verlander got comfortable, logging six shutout innings on 93 pitches.
“We had pretty good at-bats against him,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. “We were one good swing or even one well-placed swing away from getting some real action going, putting some runs up, and we just didn’t get that. With the amount of action we had on the bases, we didn’t get the runs that you would normally think you would get in those situations.”
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And yet the Twins still had a chance to win. Hector Neris relieved Verlander, and Jorge Polanco and Lewis jumped all over him with back-to-back homers in a four-run seventh inning, only for Alvarez to answer right back in the bottom of the frame. Too little, too late for the Twins after spotting the Astros five runs at their place. That’s a hole few teams can climb out of.
It was a reminder that the waters get considerably deeper with every step you take in October, especially when facing a well-rested and battled-tested team that can set its preferred rotation. Meanwhile, the Twins turned to Ober — twice demoted to the minor leagues during the regular season — after their one-two punch of Pablo López and Sonny Gray pitched Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Fortunately for the Twins, those deeper waters also include a best-of-five series rather than the best-of-three format under which they dispatched the Blue Jays, giving them ample opportunity to bounce — and fight — back. They can now turn to López for Game 2 on Sunday, with Gray lined up to start Game 3 back in Minnesota on Tuesday.
Jorge Polanco gets the @Twins right back into it! pic.twitter.com/Nq9YCk7CWk
— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2023
Things might not get much easier for the Twins’ hitters in Game 2 with All-Star left-hander Framber Valdez on the mound for the Astros, but a victory Sunday would flip home-field advantage in the series and put pressure on the mediocre middle of Houston’s rotation. It might also force Astros manager Dusty Baker to make a tricky decision with Verlander.
Cristian Javier, who posted a 4.56 ERA in 31 regular-season starts, is expected to pitch Game 3 for the Astros. Houston’s seemingly underwhelming Game 4 options include José Urquidy (5.29 ERA), Hunter Brown (5.09 ERA) and 28-year-old rookie J.P. France (3.83 ERA). Another option would be turning back to the 40-year-old Verlander on short rest, leaving Valdez for Game 5.
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That no doubt sounds scary to most Twins fans, and to be clear, it might be, but Verlander has made just two career starts on short rest, giving up eight runs in 11 2/3 innings. The last time he started on short rest was in 2019, also in Game 4 of the ALDS. Verlander failed to make it out of the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing two homers and four runs.
Short-rest playoff starts have a poor track record league-wide. And while there are certainly some prominent counterexamples, it would be asking an awful lot of any 40-year-old, even one as amazing as Verlander. He would be the second-oldest pitcher in MLB history to start a playoff game on short rest, behind only a 42-year-old Roger Clemens in 2004 (also for the Astros).
Of course, all of that only matters if the Twins win Sunday and make it clear to Baker and the Astros — and themselves — that this is a real series. If they can do that, things could get interesting in a hurry. And if they can’t, they’ll be heading home down 0-2, needing to stave off a sweep Tuesday to keep their October dream alive.
“I know I have to be on my A-game,” López said of his Game 2 matchup with Valdez. “We’ve all seen what Framber Valdez is capable of doing.”
Royce Lewis goes back-to-back and pulls the @Twins within one run! #Postseason pic.twitter.com/sOIeHFRZfj
— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2023
On paper, Valdez is far from a favorable matchup for the Twins. In addition to simply being really good — he’s a two-time All-Star with a lifetime 3.40 ERA who finished fifth in last year’s Cy Young Award voting — Valdez is a lefty with the lowest career homer rate among active starters. That could be bad news for a Twins lineup that led the AL in homers and was 10th in OPS versus lefties.
However, the Twins’ subpar season-long numbers versus lefties are misleading. Before the All-Star break, they were dead last in MLB with a .654 OPS facing lefties. But after the All-Star break, they had the AL’s second-best production off lefties with an .817 OPS. Once upon a time, the Twins had reason to fear a matchup with any lefty, but that hasn’t been true for months.
It’s also been months since Valdez has looked like his usual dominant self. After a typically outstanding first half in which he posted a 2.51 ERA with just seven homers allowed in 17 starts, Valdez has a 4.66 ERA with 12 homers allowed in 14 starts since the All-Star break. He finished the regular season with back-to-back poor starts, totaling 10 runs and eight walks in 9 1/3 innings.
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No team should ever feel good about losing Game 1 of a five-game series, and Valdez is an imposing Game 2 nemesis, but there’s at least some reason to think the Twins lineup can do enough damage to support López and tie the series. If that happens, it would put pressure on the Astros and restore hope for the Twins.
“We have to go home with a split,” Carlos Correa said. “We were down five runs, and then we made it a one-run game. That says a lot about this team and the lineup we have. (Sunday) we have to capitalize early; don’t let Valdez get too comfortable on the mound and score some runs early to give Pablo a good lead right away.”
It was never going to be easy, and they say it’s not a fight until there’s resistance. Predictably, the Astros struck first and took the opening round. Now we’ll see if the Twins can punch back and make this a real series.
(Photo of Bailey Ober after a third-inning home run by Yordan Alvarez: Bob Levey / Getty Images)
