The 2024 restricted free agency class is loaded with skill. While it’s headlined by some franchise cornerstones, like Elias Pettersson and Moritz Seider, there are more intriguing names to keep an eye on in the tier below. Anyone in the final year of their contract is eligible to extend anytime now — like Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power did earlier this month — making their situations ones to watch develop throughout the season.
Anton Lundell, Florida Panthers
Anton Lundell is developing into Aleksander Barkov Lite. The center is a source of secondary scoring and brings a strong two-way impact in all situations. That should earn him a nice raise from his entry-level deal.
A longer contract could lead to savings down the line. Maybe Barkov’s contract trajectory could be a source of inspiration here. If Lundell signed similarly, it could match by absorbing 8.26 percent of the cap (which would have an AAV of about $7 million on next year’s projected cap). That would line up with Lundell’s market value, per Dom Luszczyszyn’s model, over the seven years post-ELC.
Can the Panthers swing that? Despite clearing cap with expiring deals, there are other increasing costs to consider like Sam Reinhart and Brandon Montour’s next contracts. So a big contract to Lundell may come at the expense of another roster player like Sam Bennett, who he could replace as 2C. Otherwise, Florida may have no choice but to bridge him to squeeze everyone in.
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Dawson Mercer, New Jersey Devils
The Devils may not have any forwards with a $10 million cap hit, but they have four north of $7 million. So that may be the bar Dawson Mercer has to stay below.
The tricky part is going to be whether he’s valued as a center or a winger. Playing at center would keep him on the third line, barring injury, which means lesser quality of teammates and likely production. Shining there, though, proves he can drive a line and is more than his finishing talent. Staying on the wing, where he’s started this season, keeps him on a line with either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes, which will lead to more scoring. But crushing it there still probably wouldn’t lead to him measuring up to them salary-wise.
The team should be able to afford him somewhere in the $6-7 million range if he proves to be a true top-sixer who brings more than just finishing talent — granted management can keep ELCs and inexpensive salaries in depth roles for cap balance, and the goaltending doesn’t get a splashy upgrade. That would continue to lock up the Devils’ core early in their contention window and give long-term cost certainty. But if there’s an effort to maintain more salary flexibility, maybe management takes a more cautious approach.
Lucas Raymond, Detroit Red Wings
Lucas Raymond’s sophomore slump probably puts a damper on his value, which is why it makes more sense from his perspective to let the season play out before thinking about his next deal. If he rebounds and proves to be a reliable source of play-driving and scoring in the top six, the winger could sign a long-term deal with a cap hit above $6 million. Detroit has the money to fit that in with ease, regardless of how much they pay Seider in the next year.
But with Steve Yzerman’s tendencies in mind, Raymond may not get handed a max contract right after his ELC. A short- or mid-term contract would be more on brand, even if a mid-term deal could bite them in the long run if Raymond (and the Red Wings) start popping off. On the flip side, another slow season probably guarantees a two-year contract worth around $2-3 million.
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Ryan Lindgren, New York Rangers
Ryan Lindgren’s proven himself to be incredibly valuable in New York, and that likely motivates management to find a way to create space for his next contract. The defender’s worth more than his $3 million cap hit, but there’s only so much cap space. The Rangers will open up some room after this year and don’t have too many other deals to worry about at the same time. It’s a year later that things will get tight when Igor Shesterkin’s ready to extend, and K’Andre Miller’s recently signed bridge expires.
That means the Rangers can’t break the bank despite Lindgren’s importance. That could still be in the $5-6 million range — a deal of the Adam Pelech variety, worth about 6 or 7 percent of the cap. But would management be willing to pay that over a lengthy period? Maybe not, considering Lindgren’s style of play that may not age favorably. This team has so many other lengthy deals to balance that there may have to be a tradeoff to keep this to a mid-term length unless the player is willing to stay in the team-friendly salary neighborhood.
Kaapo Kakko, New York Rangers
Sticking in New York, another RFA to extend in the next year is Kaapo Kakko. The forward obviously hasn’t lived up to the ceiling he was perceived to have when he was drafted. But he’s slowly trending in the right direction, and maybe the Rangers’ offseason coaching change will help him hit that next gear. That’s why it’s in his best interest to wait before extending. Management should watch how he trends because they need to keep his contract on the cost-effective side to balance the books (or will have to find another salary to shed).
Kakko’s already signed a bridge deal once. But there’s no guarantee of a lengthy deal now, either. The player could maximize his earnings, and buy New York time to make space, by going for a mid-range deal now. The Filip Chytil deal could be a model for that, which the center signed after a two-year contract. Maybe Kakko could push closer to a $5 million AAV if he finally finds his game consistently and solidifies himself in the top six.
Quinton Byfield, Los Angeles Kings
Another No. 2 pick who hasn’t quite hit his stride in the NHL. While the Kings could try to go long-term right now for a cheaper deal, projecting a breakout in the near future, that seems like a risk the team doesn’t have the cap space to take. The team is up against it right now, and while space will open next year, there are other key free agents to manage, including two UFA goaltenders. So there may not be any other option but an inexpensive contract.
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That would probably be best for Byfield, anyway. Anything he’d get offered now won’t reflect his ceiling, even if he has a breakout season. Instead, a low-risk, bridge is probably in his future with a cap hit somewhere in the $2 million range. That gives the forward a chance to show what he brings at the NHL level.
Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes
It took Martin Necas a few seasons to truly become a consistent difference-maker at the NHL level. Last year’s breakout season elevated him to a mainstay top-six role. Now the question is whether it’s repeatable. That’s why a bridge deal in the summer of 2022 made sense; a two-year deal allowed Necas to prove himself and Carolina didn’t have to commit to someone with so much uncertainty.
Unlike some of the bigger-name RFAs, Necas isn’t someone likely to get signed in the coming weeks or months. It makes a lot more sense for management to wait and make sure he can repeat last year’s breakout, or build on it. If that’s the case, this could be a player in for a long-term contract. Considering the Canes’ contract tendencies, it probably wouldn’t be some loaded maximum contract. But something in the $6-7 million range could be right, below his $7.5 million market value over the next seven years and the cap hits of their two bigger forward stars.
Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins
It’s a little early to talk about Jeremy Swayman’s next contract when he only signed his current deal in August. The goalie was awarded a one-year contract carrying a $3.475 million AAV in arbitration, which punts this question down the line for the Bruins.
The 24-year-old was Boston’s 1B to Linus Ullmark last season, but that probably isn’t his ceiling. The problem is, Ullmark is ahead of him on the depth chart and signed for an extra season at $5 million. Maybe management will be willing to invest more in goaltending next year and just have a pricey tandem for one season. Or maybe this next contract forces some sort of move, considering other areas the Bruins may have to invest in first (there is a pretty big hole at center, after all). The obvious answer may seem like moving Swayman to go be a starter elsewhere, but Ullmark will be 32 when his contract expires in 2025. So it would be in the Bruins’ best interest to stick with their younger goalie, so they aren’t searching for a new starter in a year. That could force them to pay Swayman his worth next summer. What does that look like? It won’t come close to anything true number ones make around the league since he’s still unproven as a bonafide number one, or even a real 1A. But maybe something of the Ullmark or Philipp Grubauer variety would be fitting.
Data via CapFriendly, Dom Luszczyszyn, and Evolving-Hockey.
(Photo of Dawson Mercer: James Carey Lauder / USA Today)
