The 2023 NHL Entry Draft is this week, a time when the fortunes of each franchise can change with one good or bad pick.
While our expert team of prospect writers is preparing you for how good each prospect is expected to be, I thought it would be wise to add what each team should expect from its haul of draft picks.
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A few years ago we wrote about how many wins each draft slot is worth on average through a player’s first seven seasons in terms of GSVA. Each year we add up the total for each team to see which clubs are expected to gain the most at each draft and that’s what this is. It’s a breakdown of how many picks each team has, what those picks are worth, and what that worth would be comparable to in terms of an NHL player (to be clear, that doesn’t mean trade value).
That should give a good representation of what each team should reasonably expect to land at this draft, whether the total value is a superstar player or just a serviceable third-liner. But it’s also important to remember that this draft is supposed to be a good one and that the draft pick values are based on an average draft.
Keep that in mind while also remembering that every draft is volatile where some teams can hit big with one or two difference-makers — or not draft an NHL-worthy player at all.
Here’s where each team stands with a full breakdown of each team below.
Team Breakdown
1. Chicago Blackhawks
1st: 17.7 wins
19th: 4.2
35th: 2.4
44th: 1.9
51st: 1.5
55th: 1.4
67th: 1.0
93rd: 0.5
99th: 0.5
131st: 0.3
19th: 0.2
Picks: 11
Total Pick Value: 31.5 wins
Player comparable: David Pastrnak
This is a franchise-defining draft, one where the Blackhawks should expect to net 11.6 more wins than the next-best team. And that’s before accounting for the fact that the player they’re picking first overall, Connor Bedard, should be much more valuable than the average first-overall pick at 17.7 wins. Still, Chicago has a big haul after that with 10 more picks which include another first-rounder and four seconds.
The 31.5 wins is the most single-draft value since at least the year 2000, besting the 2020 Ottawa Senators who were at 30.4 wins.
- 2023 Blackhawks: 31.5
- 2020 Senators: 30.4
- 2004 Capitals: 30.1
- 2009 Islanders: 28.2
- 2011 Oilers: 28.0
2. Anaheim Ducks
2nd: 12.3 wins
33rd: 2.6
59th: 1.2
60th: 1.2
65th: 1.0
85th: 0.6
97th: 0.5
129th: 0.3
161st: 0.2
Picks: 9
Total Pick Value: 19.9 wins
Player comparable: Andrei Svechnikov
There’s a significant drop-off after Chicago, but the Ducks should still come away with a big-time franchise building block. All of the value from their draft is equivalent to an Andrei Svechnikov caliber player — fitting since he was a former second pick himself. Anaheim would rank higher if the team had another first in its arsenal like the Blackhawks and the next six teams.
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3. Arizona Coyotes
6th: 7.6 wins
12th: 5.5
38th: 2.2
70th: 0.9
72nd: 0.9
81st: 0.7
88th: 0.6
102nd: 0.4
134th: 0.3
160th: 0.2
162nd: 0.2
166th: 0.2
Picks: 12
Total Pick Value: 19.7 wins
Player comparable: Shea Theodore
The age of the Coyotes is soon upon us and while the team may not use every pick here it’s clear the team has a lot of capital. The sixth and 12th picks are a strong start along with pick 38 before the team selects four times between picks 70 and 88.
4. Detroit Red Wings
9th: 6.3 wins
17th: 4.5
41st: 2.0
42nd: 2.0
43rd: 1.9
73rd: 0.8
117th: 0.3
137th: 0.3
169th: 0.2
201st: 0.2
Picks: 10
Total Pick Value: 18.5 wins
Player comparable: Tim Stützle
The Yzerplan is currently defined by a lack of franchise-altering talent. Maybe that changes in a deep draft, but having the ninth pick isn’t ideal to that end. Adding 17th overall helps along with three seconds giving Detroit five picks in the top 50. This is a really important draft for a Red Wings team that still isn’t ready for primetime and a high quantity of picks may mean moving up is the way to go to find that franchise player.
5. San Jose Sharks
4th: 9.0 wins
26th: 3.3
36th: 2.4
94th: 0.5
100th: 0.5
123rd: 0.3
130th: 0.3
132nd: 0.3
164th: 0.2
196th: 0.2
203rd: 0.2
206th: 0.1
Picks: 12
Total Pick Value: 17.1 wins
Player comparable: Elias Lindholm
The Sharks have 12 picks in this draft, but nine of them are after the first two rounds. Those nine picks combine to be worth 2.5 wins which is as much as San Jose’s second-round pick this year. That means a lot of dart throws, but having fourth overall is obviously still huge.
6. Montreal Canadiens
5th: 8.2 wins
31st: 2.8
37th: 2.3
69th: 0.9
101st: 0.5
110th: 0.4
128th: 0.3
133rd: 0.3
144th: 0.2
165th: 0.2
197th: 0.2
Picks: 11
Total Pick Value: 16.2 wins
Player comparable: Mikhail Sergachev
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It’s a shame the Panthers made it all the way to the Final as it meant the pick earned in the Ben Chiarot trade dropped from 17th to 31st. It’s a difference of 1.7 wins which would’ve shifted Montreal into the top five for value in this draft. This draft should still net the Canadiens a game-breaking player.
7. Nashville Predators
15th: 4.9 wins
24th: 3.5
46th: 1.7
47th: 1.7
68th: 1.0
79th: 0.7
83rd: 0.7
111th: 0.4
115th: 0.4
121st: 0.3
143rd: 0.2
147th: 0.2
175th: 0.2
Picks: 13
Total Pick Value: 15.8 wins
Player comparable: Clayton Keller
The Predators’ first selection isn’t high at 15th overall, but having 13 picks is a big deal. That leads the league this year and is enough to nudge the Predators firmly into the top 10. Nashville may not get a franchise-changer at this draft, but the total value of their picks is in first-line territory. That could come in the way of a few serviceable pieces.
8. St. Louis Blues
10th: 6.0 wins
25th: 3.4
29th: 3.0
74th: 0.8
76th: 0.8
106th: 0.4
138th: 0.3
170th: 0.2
202nd: 0.2
Picks: 9
Total Pick Value: 15.0 wins
Player comparable: Mark Scheifele
The Blues lead all teams with three first-round picks which is what pushes their draft haul up to eighth best. Theoretically, the team’s first three picks (10th, 25th, 29th) carry as much value as the second overall pick (though it would likely take much more than that in an actual trade).
9. Columbus Blue Jackets
3rd: 10.2 wins
34th: 2.5
66th: 1.0
98th: 0.5
114th: 0.4
156th: 0.2
194th: 0.2
Picks: 7
Total Pick Value: 14.9 wins
Player comparable: Alex DeBrincat
The Blue Jackets have the third overall pick, but they drop to ninth in total value as a result of having not much else in terms of excess picks. The pick they traded for Ivan Provorov, 22nd overall, was worth 3.7 wins which would’ve pushed the Blue Jackets to fourth overall.
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10. Philadelphia Flyers
7th: 7.1 wins
22nd: 3.7
87th: 0.6
95th: 0.5
103rd: 0.4
120th: 0.3
135th: 0.3
167th: 0.2
172nd: 0.2
199th: 0.2
Picks: 10
Total Pick Value: 13.5 wins
Player comparable: Travis Konecny
The seventh overall pick is a solid spot and the Flyers have another first after that at 22nd, but the rest of the draft is unlikely to offer much value despite the team having eight more picks. The end result is a player valuation comparable to Travis Konecny, a player the Flyers may end up trading away that may boost this draft stockpile further.
11. Buffalo Sabres
13th: 5.3 wins
39th: 2.2
45th: 1.8
86th: 0.6
109th: 0.4
141st: 0.2
173rd: 0.2
205th: 0.1
Picks: 8
Total Pick Value: 10.8 wins
Player comparable: Adam Pelech
The dream player for the Sabres at this current moment is a defensive stud like Adam Pelech and funny enough that’s exactly what their draft haul is worth. Maybe they’ll find their future Pelech this week.
12. Seattle Kraken
20th: 4.0 wins
50th: 1.6
52nd: 1.5
57th: 1.3
84th: 0.6
116th: 0.3
148th: 0.2
168th: 0.2
180th: 0.2
212th: 0.1
Picks: 10
Total Pick Value: 10.1 wins
Player comparable: Jordan Eberle
The first 11 teams all missed the playoffs so this is good company for a Kraken team that made it to the second round. The future is bright in Seattle and this draft should net the Kraken the equivalent of a second-line forward like their own Jordan Eberle.
13. Washington Capitals
8th: 6.7 wins
40th: 2.1
104th: 0.4
136th: 0.3
200th: 0.2
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 9.6 wins
Player comparable: Damon Severson
The rebuild or retool begins in Washington, but it doesn’t feel like this draft is going to be a big needle-mover. The Capitals do have a top-10 pick at eighth overall, but not much else after that. They need to hit a home run there.
14. Vancouver Canucks
11th: 5.7 wins
75th: 0.8
89th: 0.6
105th: 0.4
107th: 0.4
119th: 0.3
171st: 0.2
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Picks: 7
Total Pick Value: 8.5 wins
Player comparable: Teuvo Teravainen
It is fitting that the current version of the Canucks — a team mired in a tier below mediocrity — sits right in the middle when it comes to draft value. Not good enough to contend, not bad enough to build something that might make them contend in the near future. The Canucks are stuck. Having just one pick with a value above one win doesn’t help.
15. Calgary Flames
16th: 4.7 wins
48th: 1.7
112th: 0.4
176th: 0.2
208th: 0.1
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 7.0 wins
Player comparable: Jaden Schwartz
The Calgary Flames start in the middle with five picks worth seven wins, but what will be much more interesting is what the team’s final haul looks like. With Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Tyler Toffoli and Mikael Backlund all on the trade market, the Flames have serious potential to move up the draft value board.
16. Minnesota Wild
21st: 3.9 wins
53rd: 1.4
64th: 1.1
149th: 0.2
181st: 0.2
213th: 0.1
Picks: 6
Total Pick Value: 6.9 wins
Player comparable: Anthony Cirelli
The team has six picks and the average result is coming away with an average-ish player. It’s an extremely on-brand draft for Minnesota.
17. Pittsburgh Penguins
14th: 5.1 wins
90th: 0.6
142nd: 0.2
174th: 0.2
217th: 0.1
223rd: 0.1
Picks: 6
Total Pick Value: 6.3 wins
Player comparable: Max Domi
It’s Kyle Dubas’ first draft leading the Penguins and it feels like it’ll be in his best interest to move the team’s first-rounder to maximize the current Crosby-Malkin-Letang window. Without that pick the Penguins’ draft value drops to 1.2 wins.
18. Carolina Hurricanes
30th: 2.9 wins
62nd: 1.1
71st: 0.9
126th: 0.3
139th: 0.3
158th: 0.2
163rd: 0.2
190th: 0.2
222nd: 0.1
Picks: 9
Total Pick Value: 6.1 wins
Player comparable: Alex Kerfoot
The Hurricanes hold two extra picks in this draft, but the total value doesn’t end up being very high with those two picks coming in the fifth and sixth rounds. What puts Carolina ahead of other contenders is the presence of the team’s first and second-round picks.
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19. Winnipeg Jets
18th: 4.3 wins
82nd: 0.7
146th: 0.2
151st: 0.2
210th: 0.1
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 5.6 wins
Player comparable: Artem Zub
Like Calgary, there’s a very strong chance that Winnipeg’s pick haul looks very different when all the dust is settled. Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck trades could drastically improve the team’s stockpile — if draft picks are what the Jets are looking to acquire.
20. New York Rangers
23rd: 3.6 wins
91st: 0.6
152nd: 0.2
178th: 0.2
183rd: 0.2
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 4.7 wins
Player comparable: Jordan Martinook
We’re getting into the weeds now where each team’s picks are worth less than a win each on average which means less than an average player. If the Rangers get the equivalent of a third liner from this draft it would be a success.
21. Vegas Golden Knights
32nd: 2.7 wins
77th: 0.8
96th: 0.5
192nd: 0.2
224th: 0.1
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 4.2 wins
Player comparable: Sean Monahan
The Stanley Cup champions have five picks with one of those being 32nd overall, the final pick of the first round. It’ll be interesting to see if the Golden Knights make a selection there or use that to keep their Cup contention status rolling on a high.
22. Colorado Avalanche
27th: 3.2 wins
155th: 0.2
187th: 0.2
219th: 0.1
Picks: 4
Total Pick Value: 3.7 wins
Player comparable: Alex Newhook
The Avalanche are still in possession of their first-round pick which accounts for 3.2 of their 3.7 total wins of value at this draft. Feels like they could use that for reinforcements in this coming season as the team still remains in their contention window.
23. Toronto Maple Leafs
28th: 3.1 wins
153rd: 0.2
185th: 0.2
Picks: 3
Total Pick Value: 3.4 wins
Player comparable: Anthony Beauvillier
New GM Brad Treliving isn’t allowed at the draft table, but that doesn’t matter with the Leafs owning just three total picks — two of which aren’t worth much. That’s the price of going for it every year and Toronto should keep paying that price to finally get over the hump. What’s better: a first that might amount to a player like Anthony Beauvillier one day, or a player that good (or better) that can play on the roster today? It’s an easy choice.
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24. Los Angeles Kings
54th: 1.4 wins
78th: 0.7
118th: 0.3
150th: 0.2
182nd: 0.2
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 2.9 wins
Player comparable: Adam Lowry
Who knows if Los Angeles’ 2023 draft pile will deplete further if the Kings do in fact land Pierre-Luc Dubois, but for now it’s already among the league’s lowest. The Kings are ready to take the next step and they land this low because of that.
25. New Jersey Devils
58th: 1.2 wins
80th: 0.7
122nd: 0.3
154th: 0.2
186th: 0.2
218th: 0.1
Picks: 6
Total Pick Value: 2.8 wins
Player comparable: Dillon Dube
The rebuild is officially over and it’s now “draft schmaft” in New Jersey. The Devils are only missing a first-rounder and that means a big hit in their total draft value.
26. New York Islanders
49th: 1.6 wins
113th: 0.4
145th: 0.2
177th: 0.2
209th: 0.1
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 2.5 wins
Player comparable: Victor Olofsson
No first or third-rounder for the Islanders, but they end up ranking a little higher than other teams below thanks to the team’s second-rounder coming in at 49th overall. That’s still low, but it’s better than the teams below. Either way, this likely won’t be a difference-making draft for the Islanders.
27. Dallas Stars
61st: 1.1 wins
125th: 0.3
157th: 0.2
189th: 0.2
221st: 0.1
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 2.0 wins
Player comparable: Mike Hoffman
The Stars had one of the best drafts ever in 2017 nabbing Miro Heiskanen, Jake Oettinger and Jason Robertson. This draft will likely be the exact opposite where it will be a success if Dallas drafts anyone notable.
28. Florida Panthers
63rd: 1.1 wins
127th: 0.3
159th: 0.2
191st: 0.2
198th: 0.2
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 1.9 wins
Player comparable: Cody Ceci
The Eastern Conference champions are missing their first and third-round picks which is the main reason they fall this low.
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29. Edmonton Oilers
56th: 1.3 wins
184th: 0.2
216th: 0.1
Picks: 3
Total Pick Value: 1.6 wins
Player comparable: Carl Grundstrom
The Oilers are in the “go for it” stage of their competitive window and that means there will be a lot of drafts like this one where impact players will be hard to come by. That’s a good thing as long as it means a deep roster in the big leagues.
30. Boston Bruins
92nd: 0.5 wins
124th: 0.3
188th: 0.2
214th: 0.1
220th: 0.1
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 1.3 wins
Player comparable: Connor Clifton
It’s a shame that The Best Team Ever couldn’t even make it past the first round because now they’re left with a weak draft haul and nothing to show for it. Boston is one of three teams without a pick until the third round.
31. Ottawa Senators
108th: 0.4 wins
140th: 0.2
204th: 0.2
207th: 0.1
215th: 0.1
Picks: 5
Total Pick Value: 1.1 wins
Player comparable: Sammy Blais
It is concerning that a non-playoff team ranks this low. On average the other non-playoff teams from last year expect to pull in 15 wins of value with their draft picks this year while Ottawa sits at just 1.1 wins. The next closest is Pittsburgh in 17th at 6.3 wins — a team that has actually made the playoffs in recent memory.
32. Tampa Bay Lightning
179th: 0.2 wins
193rd: 0.2
211th: 0.1
Picks: 3
Total Pick Value: 0.5 wins
Player comparable: Matt Nieto
What happens when a team continually goes for it to the point of trading five picks for Tanner Jeannot: this. A three-pick haul starting in the sixth round that likely won’t amount to anything.
Data via ESPN
(Top photo of David Pastrnak and Seth Jones: Jamie Sabau / Getty Images)
