When the Tigers called the Phillies in the first week of January to see if they were still interested in Gregory Soto, it was enticing to imagine Soto pairing with José Alvarado to form a tandem of the two hardest-throwing lefties in the sport. But the Phillies’ pitching people were keen on Soto because they thought he could throw his fastball less.
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“It’s actually interesting,” Soto said through a team interpreter earlier this month.
Soto threw 22 pitches in consecutive outings Tuesday and Wednesday; 13 were sliders. He recorded all five of his outs with the slider. Four of those outs were strikeouts. He is throwing a higher rate of sliders — 47 percent — than ever. He’s bought into the idea.
The Phillies wanted more time in spring training to convince Soto, whose arrival was delayed by visa issues, of the plan. His slider was so bad last season in Detroit. He lost confidence in it. But Soto had thought about his slider during the winter. He tried a new grip. Coincidentally, the Phillies suggested the same grip after trading for him. And, when selling the plan, they pointed to Alvarado as evidence. His career changed last season when he began throwing his fastball less and his cutter more.
Alvarado and Soto have combined to allow two earned runs in 16 2/3 innings with 30 strikeouts and four walks since April 1. The formula the Phillies imagined in the winter came to fruition in a series win against the White Sox because the Phillies had leads and could let the lefty relievers protect them.
It’s a long way to deeming this tandem a success. But it’s alluring. Alvarado, right now, looks as dominant as a reliever can possibly look. He has yet to walk a hitter. Soto did not retire a batter on Opening Day. He has since found his footing, but those command issues will always loom. Alvarado will face challenging stretches this season, but now he has so many reasons to know he can reach the other side. The Phillies hope Soto can reach that mental state too.
Both pitchers will still throw their high-90s fastballs, but they gain even more power when it’s a coin flip as to what pitch the hitter is going to see. It’s not a bad view from where the Phillies stand.
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Turner’s power outage
Before Trea Turner launched his first home run as a Phillie in Wednesday’s 5-2 win, he had authored an uncharacteristic start. He carried an 86.6 mph average exit velocity through the team’s first 18 games — a figure that would have ranked as his second-lowest rate in a month since his rookie season. (Only August 2022, 85.6 mph, was worse.) It’s ironic because all Turner did in the spring was launch balls for both Team USA and the Phillies.
But, even as Turner has improved his power stroke over the years, he is prone to outages as he experienced in the first three weeks.
The Phillies entered Wednesday with the second-most extra-base hits in baseball. Remarkably, that came with Turner ranked 114th among 184 qualified hitters in slugging percentage; J.T. Realmuto ranked 65th; Kyle Schwarber was 76th and Nick Castellanos 89th.
Even if the Phillies expect some regression to the mean from their youngest hitters off to hot starts — Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott — there should be some slugging improvement from the lineup mainstays.
And, maybe, there won’t be too much regression from Bohm or Stott on their power swings. Entering Wednesday, Bohm ranked 12th in the majors with 29 batted balls at 95 mph or harder. Stott ranked 16th. This is a decent indicator of a batter’s power potential. Look at the company they shared.
Getting Falter right
The first Phillies starter to throw a pitch in the seventh inning this season was Bailey Falter. Of course. Falter has done his job as a fifth starter — five innings in three of his four outings — but he’s essentially the No. 4 man in the rotation right now. That shouldn’t alter the assessment of how he’s pitched.
There will always be limitations to what Falter can do because he lacks an out pitch against right-handed batters and just about everyone knows it. Consider this: Falter has faced 88 hitters this season and 80 of them have been righties.
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So, it’s interesting to track how the Phillies have attempted to work around this. They talked in the spring about Falter developing a changeup to show right-handed hitters. He threw a bunch in his start last week at Cincinnati and it did not go well. He threw exactly one in seven innings against the White Sox.
For now, the plan to attack righties looks like four-seam fastballs at the top of the zone and curveballs down. The slider, albeit used rarely on righties, has been effective. That four-seam fastball averages only 90 mph and righties are hitting .302 against it. He threw Jake Burger a center-cut 92 mph fastball and Burger demolished it. That was the difference in a 3-0 loss. It did not derail Falter’s outing.
When he spots the fastball above the zone, even at 89 mph, it plays. He generated weak contact and a few whiffs.
It’s never going to be pretty for Falter when teams stack righties against him. But, against a slugging White Sox team, he proved there are ways to survive.
This and that
• Zack Wheeler told reporters after his start Tuesday that he felt some lower back tightness during the game. If the Phillies stay in rotation, he could pitch Sunday against Colorado. But it’s just as easy to push his next start to Tuesday against Seattle and have Falter pitch Sunday on regular rest. (The Phillies are off Monday.)
• In the first 15 games of the season, the Phillies batted .218/.283/.345 in the first inning. They scored four first-inning runs; only Detroit had fewer. They were 28th in first-inning OPS.
They have scored first-inning runs in three of their past four games including that nine-run outburst in the series finale at Cincinnati. Not a bad flip.
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• Stott has 20 two-strike hits this season. That is six more than anyone else in baseball. He had 38 two-strike hits in all of 2022. The most two-strike hits for any Phillies hitter dating back to 1988, when the data was first recorded: Jayson Werth with 85 in 2010.
• One more sign that Marsh’s simplified approach is helping him be on time more: He’s hitting .357 with a .643 slugging percentage against fastballs 95 mph or harder. Last season, he hit .179 with a .393 slugging percentage against those pitches.
• Cristopher Sánchez will start Saturday, manager Rob Thomson told reporters, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Phillies keep him in the majors as a long reliever after that spot start. Luis Ortiz would be the odd man out; he’s thrown strikes in his brief time with the Phillies.
(Top photo of Gregory Soto: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire / Associated Press)
