NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Texas A&M and Kentucky rise up the seed line

The soundtrack at Bracket Watch world headquarters hasn’t changed for several months. We simply can’t stop listening to The Beths’ 2022 album “Expert in a Dying Field.”

It’s a perfect 45 minutes of power-pop melodies, made poignant by the inventive writing about heartache and punctuated by lead singer Elizabeth Stokes’ charming New Zealand accent. You want to both sing along and offer her a hug.

And it’s that title track that always hits us the hardest. Are we also in danger of becoming an expert (in the loosest possible sense of the word) in a dying field? Will bracketology continue to exist in the age of AI or — God forbid — if the NCAA Tournament expands to some unwieldy number? If so, at least we have some killer breakup songs to ease the pain.

Anyway, it doesn’t take an expert in supplying the field of 68 this week; last Saturday, the selection committee gave us its top 16 seeds and four other teams under consideration. While results since then should cause some seed-line shuffling, we don’t see why any of those 20 teams would fall below the No. 5 line. And though we believe Kansas, with its record-breaking 14 Quad 1 wins — and counting — could and should eventually move to No. 1 overall, we’re not going to rearrange the top line yet since none of the teams ahead of the Jayhawks have lost since Saturday. Instead, we’ll take a look at a few other topics around the bracket this week, while using lyrics from The Beths. Let’s see ChatGPT try that! (Although AI apparently understands love and longing?)

“Can we erase our history?/ Is it as easy as this?” Two SEC teams have done some amazing work in quickly improving their résumés. Texas A&M wasn’t even in our field two weeks ago, thanks to a poor nonconference showing (Quad 4 losses to Wofford and Murray State; No. 253 noncon SOS). But Buzz Williams’ team was No. 22 in NET on Thursday with five Quad 1 wins, earning a No. 7 seed from us this week. Kentucky, meanwhile, was on the bubble for several weeks after not accomplishing much most of the season. The Wildcats, after three consecutive Q1 wins, are now 29th in NET with a 5-7 mark in Quad 1 record. They, too, are comfortably in the field.

“I’m coming in hot / Then freezing completely.” Two teams that appeared in the top 16 reveal worth worrying about: Virginia and Xavier. The Cavaliers were 10th on the seed list Saturday but struggled to win two Quad 4 games (Louisville and Notre Dame) before scoring just 48 points in a Quad 3 loss to Boston College. While UVa has done enough to remain a protected seed, it has fallen to No. 34 in KenPom and 36th in Sagarin, putting its No. 3 seed status in serious jeopardy. Xavier, on the other hand, has lost three of its last four, including Tuesday’s Quad 3 home loss to Villanova (that’s an odd thing to write). Zach Freemantle’s injury is clearly taking a toll, but the Musketeers could tumble down the seed line without him.

“Walking on the wire / And all the while aspiring.” Let’s go to the cut line — and no, we’re not going to talk about North Carolina, which is two wins away from being two wins away. We’re sticking with Wisconsin, which got a useful Quad 2 home win over Iowa on Wednesday to get its 10th victory in the first two quads, in our First Four. USC squeezes back into the field after adding a Quad 1 win at Colorado on Thursday. Mississippi State and Oklahoma State join the Badgers and Trojans in Dayton. New Mexico is our first team out, but the Lobos can potentially get back in by beating San Diego State at home on Saturday.

“It’s white noise /  Sufferingly loud / It’s wearing me down.” With just five days until the start of March — huzzah! — we’re definitely knees-deep into lobbying/whining season. Mick Cronin and Jeff Capel have already begun the conspiracy theories and complaints, and we’re sure to hear more coaches try to pump up their own teams and bodies of work or trash the selection process in the coming days. Tune it all out. We get it — coaches are hypercompetitive people who like to foster an us-against-the-world attitude in their locker rooms, and they’re not diving into the nitty gritty minutiae across the sport. But there’s no nefarious scheming going on behind closed doors. Just go win games, and you’ll be fine. Silence is golden.

Two more quick notes:

• Our Final Four pairings are the same as the committee’s a week ago: South vs. West and Midwest vs. East. An asterisk denotes conference autobid qualifier. Conference tournament season begins Monday. It’s all happening, people!

• “But here I go again / Mixing drinks and messages.” We joined forces with the great Eamonn Brennan for an audio live room Friday, where we discussed all things NCAA Tournament. If you didn’t have a chance to join, you can listen to this spectacular Bubble/Bracket Watch collabo at this link. Cheers.

First Four (Dayton)

Seed	Team
16	St. Francis PA*
16	Alcorn State*
11	Wisconsin
11	Mississippi State
16	Morehead State*
16	Howard*
11	USC
11	Oklahoma State

South Region (Louisville)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Alabama*
16	UNC Asheville*	Birmingham
8	Duke
9	Rutgers
4	Indiana
13	Iona*	Albany
5	Xavier
12	Liberty*
3	Kansas State
14	Marshall*	Des Moines
6	San Diego State*
11	Wisconsin/Mississippi State
2	UCLA*
15	Youngstown State*	Sacramento
7	Michigan State
10	Auburn

West Region (Las Vegas)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Kansas*
16	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi*	Des Moines
8	NC State
9	Arkansas
4	UConn
13	Utah Valley*	Albany
5	Miami
12	Drake*
3	Gonzaga
14	UC Irvine*	Greensboro
6	TCU
11	Memphis
2	Arizona
15	Eastern Washington*	Sacramento
7	Illinois
10	Boise State

Midwest Region (Kansas City)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Houston*
16	St. Francis PA*/Alcorn State*	Birmingham
8	Missouri
9	Iowa
4	Iowa State
13	VCU*	Orlando
5	Saint Mary's*
12	Oral Roberts*
3	Marquette*
14	Toledo*
6	Northwestern	Columbus
11	USC/Oklahoma State
2	Texas
15	Samford*	Denver
7	Texas A&M
10	Florida Atlantic*

East Region (New York City)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Purdue*
16	Morehead State*/Howard*	Columbus
8	Kentucky
9	Nevada
4	Virginia*
13	Yale*	Orlando
5	Creighton
12	Charleston*
3	Tennessee
14	Colgate*	Greensboro
6	Maryland
11	West Virginia
2	Baylor
15	Vermont*	Denver
7	Providence
10	Pittsburgh

(Photo of Texas A&M’s Tyrece Radford: Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)