Bracket Watch: Key questions before selection committee reveals its top 16 seeds

Cheers. It’s almost Top 16 Selection Saturday.

OK, we need a better name for this. Still, for fake bracketeers like us, a momentous occasion awaits. The selection committee convened this week and will reveal its current top 16 seeds for the NCAA Tournament at 12:30 p.m. (ET) Saturday on CBS.

Unlike the ridiculously pointless weekly College Football Playoff rankings, the committee does this exercise only once, three weeks before it gathers in the war room for the actual bracketing and seeding process. And it usually tells us a whole lot.

Excited to start another year of ⁦@MarchMadnessMBB⁩ selections. Top 16 reveal this weekend. pic.twitter.com/pNLmuXNTkC

— Jamie Pollard (@IASTATEAD) February 14, 2023

Last year, for example, 15 of the committee’s top 16 seeds remained there on Selection Sunday, while nine teams stayed on the same seed line. Only one team moved more than one spot between the early reveal and when Greg Gumbel announced the real field of 68: Texas, which went from the last No. 4 seed to a No. 6.

Every season and each committee are different of course — in 2021, Missouri and Oklahoma each dropped five seed lines from the tease to the real thing — but Saturday will give us key insight into the committee’s thinking on several burning topics. Such as:

“1-2-3-4, tell me that you love me more”

We’re fairly confident the No. 1 seeds will be Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue. That’s in alphabetical order and also our current order, though you can make a Feist-y argument to arrange them however you’d like.

Of particular interest: how the committee views Houston. The Cougars entered Thursday ranked No. 1 in every efficiency metric the committee uses but lacking the high-end wins of the other contenders. True story: Houston was No. 4 in the NET (and seventh in KenPom) on the morning of the 2022 early reveal. The committee, noticing the lack of any Quad 1 wins, did not include those Cougars in its top 16 seeds. Kelvin Sampson’s team is in a much stronger position this year, with four Quad 1 wins. But has it done enough to be seeded ahead of the likes of Alabama (to which it lost at home in December) or Kansas (nation-leading 12 Quad 1 wins)? Can’t wait to find out.

The Big East traffic jam

The biggest drama of the early reveal should come on the No. 3 line, which is where we’ll likely see Big East teams begin to show up. But who goes first?

Connecticut has the best metrics and most Quad 1 wins, but Marquette is alone in first place in the league and has a useful blowout win over Baylor on the team sheet. Creighton is in the top 15 of the efficiency metrics but is saddled with nine losses, while Xavier didn’t do much in the nonconference and is dealing with an injury to Zach Freemantle. And then there’s Providence, once again vastly outperforming its NET number (41st as of Thursday) while doing most of its best work at home.

We’re going with Marquette as a No. 3, UConn and Xavier as No. 4s and Providence and Creighton just outside the top 16. But we’d appreciate the committee’s guidance here.

Best in the West?

Gonzaga has been a No. 1 seed each of the past three early reveals and all but one year (2018) since the committee started doing this in 2017. The Zags won’t be on the No. 1 line Saturday, but their name should appear … somewhere. Is this a No. 3 seed? A No. 4? And will Mark Few’s team be ahead or behind Saint Mary’s, which beat Gonzaga and has incredible metrics (No. 6 in NET) but also some questionable losses? Insert shrug emoji.

There’s also the matter of Pac-12 titans Arizona and UCLA. We expect to see both on the No. 2 line, but which one gets priority for the West Region and a potential second-weekend stay in Las Vegas instead of a big batch of frequent-flier miles? Arizona has a major edge in high-quality wins (Tennessee, Indiana, Creighton, San Diego State) and also beat the Bruins at home in their lone meeting thus far. UCLA, meanwhile, has better metrics and no losses outside of Quad 1, while the Wildcats have demerits in Quads 2 and 3.

History tells us that big wins are more important than anything, so we believe Arizona has the upper hand here. But this committee could go its own way.

These are some thorny questions that we wish the committee luck in deciphering. For those about to mock, we salute you.

Other quick notes:

• This week’s Final Four pairings are South vs. West and Midwest vs. East based on our seed list, which you can find below. An asterisk denotes conference autobid qualifier.

• Our cut-line situation is sure to raise some eyebrows this week. Kentucky is back in the First Four, thanks to a Quad 1 win at Mississippi State, and is matched up in Dayton against Wisconsin. Have those two teams ever played in the NCAA Tournament? (Sorry … we just blacked out for several hours). New Mexico is the last team in. The Badgers (77th in NET) and Lobos (55th) obviously have shaky metrics, but do not forget how much the committee loves big road wins. Wisconsin has won at Marquette, at Iowa and at Penn State, plus against USC on a neutral floor. It is basically 2022 Rutgers. New Mexico won at Saint Mary’s and at San Diego State, two very difficult places to play. Plus, Richard Pitino’s team was without its best player, Jaelen House, during its two recent damaging losses to Air Force and Wyoming. The committee will take that into account, assuming House recovers from his hamstring injury and the team turns things around.

Bottom line: We’ll take those teams’ wins right now over the weak résumés of North Carolina and Clemson. Maybe we’re wrong. Hey, selection committee, would you mind revealing your last four in while you’re at it on Saturday? Appreciate it.

• Questions? Gripes (especially from ACC fans)? Bring ’em to the comments section and our brilliance will reveal itself.

First Four (Dayton)

Seed	Team
16	Fairleigh Dickinson*
16	Morehead State*
11	Kentucky
11	Wisconsin
16	Alcorn State*
16	Howard*
11	Mississippi State
11	New Mexico

South Region (Louisville)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Alabama*
16	Fairleigh Dickinson*/Morehead State*	Birmingham
8	Duke
9	Florida Atlantic*
4	Kansas State
13	Drake*	Orlando
5	Saint Mary's*
12	Liberty*
3	Marquette*
14	Colgate*	Columbus
6	Iowa
11	Texas A&M
2	Baylor
15	Youngstown State*	Denver
7	Maryland
10	Nevada

West Region (Las Vegas)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Purdue*
16	Alcorn State*/Howard*	Columbus
8	Missouri
9	Pittsburgh
4	Iowa State
13	Iona*	Orlando
5	Creighton
12	Kent State*
3	Gonzaga
14	Utah Valley*	Des Moines
6	San Diego State*
11	Kentucky/Wisconsin
2	Arizona
15	Eastern Washington*	Sacramento
7	Auburn
10	West Virginia

East Region (New York City)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Kansas*
16	UNC Asheville*	Des Moines
8	Illinois
9	NC State
4	UConn
13	VCU*	Albany
5	Indiana
12	Charleston*
3	Virginia*
14	Yale*	Greensboro
6	TCU
11	Memphis
2	UCLA*
15	Vermont*	Sacramento
7	Rutgers
10	Arkansas

Midwest Region (Kansas City)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Houston*
16	Northwestern State*	Birmingham
8	Michigan State
9	Oklahoma State
4	Xavier
13	Southern Miss*	Albany
5	Miami
12	Oral Roberts*
3	Tennessee
14	UC Irvine*	Greensboro
6	Providence
11	Mississippi State/New Mexico
2	Texas
15	Samford*	Denver
7	Northwestern
10	Boise State

(Photo of Alabama’s Noah Gurley and Houston’s Reggie Chaney: Ken Murray / Icon Sportswire via AP)