The week was eventful, but hardly unusual. There were plenty of surprises and a couple of exciting buzzer-beaters, but nothing exceptional for the middle of February.
That is, until Sunday.
That’s when Purdue, which last week was ranked No. 1 in the AP poll for the sixth time this season, lost at Northwestern, 64-58. The Boilermakers also lost the previous week at Indiana, and although I (and 37 other AP voters) thought Purdue should still retain its spot at the top after the loss to the Hoosiers, Sunday’s loss was the proverbial bridge too far. I did a brief check on Houston and Alabama to see if maybe I’d vault the Crimson Tide to No. 1, but the Cougars have better rankings in most of the metrics, and they have one fewer loss on the season. Plus, I’ve been ranking Houston ahead of Alabama all season, and saw no reason to change things up.
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So the Cougars are No. 1 on my ballot for the first time all season. Remember: They could be one of the teams playing in the Final Four in their home city, which hasn’t occurred since Butler played in the 2010 Final Four in Indianapolis.
Before we get to this week’s rankings, I’d like to offer a word about the metrics. There are many good ones that the men’s basketball selection committee uses, and those members have the ability to cast a net that doesn’t include numbers on the NCAA’s official team sheets. For purposes of clarity and consistency, I have decided to focus on three metrics that represent a good cross section — the NET, which is the NCAA’s official organizing tool; KenPom, which is the most widely cited predictive metric; and KPI, which is strictly a results-based metric. When I cite a team’s metrics, I will use the numbers in that order, e.g. Houston’s metrics profile is 1-1-5. Remember, also, my mantra regarding metrics: They are useful, not gospel.
Here, then, is the correct order of the top 25 teams in college basketball, as submitted to the Associated Press Sunday night:
| Ranking | Team | Last week |
|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | |
2 | 3 | |
3 | 1 | |
4 | 6 | |
5 | 9 | |
6 | 10 | |
7 | 11 | |
8 | 12 | |
9 | 14 | |
10 | 5 | |
11 | 15 | |
12 | 4 | |
13 | NR | |
14 | 8 | |
15 | 13 | |
16 | 17 | |
17 | 19 | |
18 | 16 | |
19 | 21 | |
20 | 23 | |
21 | 24 | |
22 | NR | |
23 | NR | |
24 | 18 | |
25 | 25 |
Dropped out: Iowa State (7), Providence (20), Maryland (22)
Almost Famous: Arkansas, Boise State, Iowa, Liberty, Missouri, NC State, North Texas, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, TCU, Texas A&M, UAB
Notes on the votes
• Four teams besides Purdue that were ranked in my top 10 dropped because of losses last week. Arizona lost at Stanford (a Quad 2 loss and its second sub-Quad 1 loss of the season), and Kansas State lost at Texas Tech. The metrics don’t like Kansas State very much (18-22-13). The loss in Lubbock was the Wildcats’ fourth loss in their last six games, though all were Quad 1 losses.
Northwestern beats No. 1 Purdue.
This is a thing that happened.
Here’s @TheAthletic headline and my analysis on how it happened…and what it means for the Wildcats and Boilermakers in March 👇https://t.co/1yvmZypFve
— Brian Hamilton (@_Brian_Hamilton) February 12, 2023
As for Iowa State, it’s not often a team goes from No. 7 to unranked, but on top of having a bad week (losses at West Virginia and at home to Oklahoma State), Iowa State fell victim to what I have previously described as the “law of accumulation.” The Cyclones started out 4-0 in the Big 12 and rose to No. 12 in the AP poll, but they have now lost six of their last nine games. That includes two losses to Oklahoma State, so if nothing else, the Cyclones needed to be ranked behind the Cowboys, who didn’t quite make my final cut. Iowa State (16-18-19 in the metrics) also lost in overtime at Texas Tech on Jan. 30 after blowing a 23-point second-half lead. (That was the Red Raiders’ first league win.) Iowa State was No. 11 in the AP poll last week, so this was one case where my fellow voters were closer to the mark.
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• Kansas climbed to No. 8 following wins over Texas (home) and Oklahoma (away). The Jayhawks are a good example of the difference between an AP ballot and an NCAA Tournament bracket. If I were doing a bracket, I’d have Kansas as a No. 1 seed, partly because it has more Quad 1 wins (12) than any other team in the country. Yet, there were only so many spots I could move the Jayhawks up my ballot given the number of teams ranked above them last week who kept winning. I dropped KU to 12th following its 15-point loss at Iowa State, which looks worse now than it did on Feb. 4.
• Baylor moved up not only because it has won nine of its last 10 games (with the lone loss coming at Texas), but also because the Bears just added a very important piece in Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. He should shore up many of the concerns I’ve had about the Bears’ defense, and it appears he has worked hard to become a legitimate 3-point threat. Baylor has a huge game coming up in Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday.
GO DEEPER
The walking miracle that is Baylor's Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua
• Virginia’s win over Duke may have been controversial, but that didn’t affect my rankings. I don’t like to step on that slippery slope. It’s the same for when Ohio State beat Rutgers back in December on a play that was later deemed illegal. Margin of victories matter, circumstances matter, but at the end of the day, a win is a win is a win.
• Indiana is the only team in my top 10 that’s underwater in Quad 1 games (5-6). But I’m ranking the Hoosiers there based on who they are right now more than their overall resume. (Again, the difference between doing an AP ballot and a tourney bracket.) The Hoosiers have won eight of their last nine following a 1-4 start in the Big Ten. They’re still not 100 percent healthy, either, as Race Thompson sat out Saturday’s win at Michigan, and senior point guard Xavier Johnson still isn’t recovered from foot surgery.
• Tennessee remains a metrics darling (3-4-8), but I dropped the Volunteers eight spots following their buzzer-beating losses last week to Vanderbilt (road) and Missouri (home). Both were Quad 2 losses, doubling Tennessee’s number in that category, which is more than any other team in my top 25. Tennessee also lost at home to plunging Kentucky, which remains the Wildcats’ only Quad 1 win of the season.
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• I gave Creighton a coveted Buy-Plus rating in my annual Hoop Thoughts Stock Report, so it shouldn’t surprise you that I’ve been ranking the Bluejays consistently ahead of my fellow voters most of the season. Last week I had the Bluejays 15th. My fellow voters ranked them 23rd. After beating Seton Hall (road) and UConn (home) last week, Creighton has now won eight in a row, and its metrics profile has likewise grown stronger (13-10-25). The Jays play at Providence and St. John’s this week.
• I left UConn unranked last week, but the Huskies are back on the board after beating Marquette by 15 points at home and then fighting Creighton to the wire on the road before losing, 56-53. The Huskies are still riding a metrics glow from their 14-0 start, although KPI has them at No. 21. They don’t have any more Quad 1 games left this season, so there’s a good chance they will enter the Big East tournament on a heater.
• Xavier (26-25-16) got dropped for its wacky loss at Butler Friday night. Yes, the Musketeers are playing without an important contributor in Zach Freemantle, but he might not be back until the Big East tournament. This is who they are right now. And things won’t get easier when they play at Marquette Wednesday night.
• Once I got past Xavier at No. 18, my ballot was a mess. I looked at about a dozen teams for the final seven spots. You could throw a dart and come up with a proper group of seven, and while I considered doing just that, I dove into the numbers and made my choices. Here’s how I got there:
In the group I considered, only three teams (Miami, Northwestern and FAU) were over .500 in Quad 1 games. That goes a long way with me. Northwestern’s metrics were weak otherwise (49-47-39), but it is tied for second in the Big Ten and is now one of three teams to beat Purdue. The Wildcats deserve to be ranked.
San Diego State’s metrics were the strongest in the group (19-17-10), so I left the Aztecs and Nevada (31-38-15) in place. Missouri’s metrics (44-48-23), on the other hand, were among the worst, even though the Tigers have won five of their last six, including at Tennessee on Saturday. So I left them out. Oklahoma State (29-27-42) has won seven of eight and is 7-1 in the Big 12 with Moussa Cisse healthy. It came down to the Cowboys and FAU for my last spot. It was super close, but Oklahoma State has two more not-so-great losses than FAU. So the Cowboys barely missed the cut.
As for the other Big Ten teams, Illinois (22-21-28) beat Rutgers (21-16-43) at home, so the Illini are back on the ballot. Maryland (28-26-37) got ranked last week because of its home win over Indiana, but dropped out this week because of its loss at Michigan State. The Terrapins are now 3-7 in Quad 1 games, the worst mark percentage-wise among the final teams I considered.
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• Finally, while I did not rank Pitt or NC State, if I had to pick one of those two, Pitt would have been the easy choice. The Wolfpack have slightly better metrics, but the Panthers are tied for first and are two games ahead of NC State in the ACC standings, and they beat the Wolfpack in Raleigh. They also have a home win over Virginia, a road win at North Carolina, and a road win at Northwestern that looks a lot better today than it did two days ago. NC State’s wins are not of the same caliber. Yet, somehow NC State was No. 22 in last week’s AP poll while the Panthers were unranked. If nothing else, Pitt should be a no-brainer choice to be ahead of NC State on your pollster’s depth chart.
(Photo of Northwestern’s Tydus Verhoeven and Chase Audige and Purdue’s Mason Gillis: Nam Y. Huh / AP)