NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Can you guess these teams from their blind résumés?

We hear there may be some sort of large sporting event this weekend, but first it’s time to play America’s true favorite game. That’s right — the Blind Résumé Challenge!

Here’s how it works: We present the key information on team sheets for a group of unnamed schools, deleting the overall record to make it more difficult. Then you be the selection committee and decide which team is in better shape. Why? Because sometimes it’s instructive to strip away preconceived notions about names on the front of the jersey and focus just on the body of work. (All stats are through Thursday afternoon; props to Bracketologists.com’s compare résumés function for saving us time).

First up: a trio of high-major teams scuffling along. We’ve highlighted in green areas in which one team stands out.

At first glance, it looks pretty close, right? None of the three have done much in Quad 1, while Team A has a Quad 4 loss. Team C trails in all the metrics but has played a tougher schedule than the other two and has that extra Q1 win, counterbalanced by just one Q2 victory. Strength of Record likes Team B a lot, but the other results-based metric, KPI,  thinks it’s just meh.

You might have guessed by now that Team A is Kentucky, and Team B is North Carolina. Team C is Florida, which is 13-11 overall and nobody’s idea of a tournament team right now. Kentucky has the best win of the bunch, by far, having beaten Tennessee on the road, but also the worst loss (home to South Carolina). Meanwhile, North Carolina’s lone Quad 1 victory to date is on a neutral floor against a fading Ohio State squad. Neither UK nor UNC is in that much better shape than Florida, however, which is why we currently have both bluebloods matching up in what would undoubtedly be the most-viewed First Four game ever.

(An extra bit of comparison. North Carolina was 1-7 in Quad 1, 41st in NET and 43rd in KenPom on this day last year. We forget what happened next.)

OK, time for the second round, featuring some teams that might be better off than you think. None of them have Quad 4 losses, so we didn’t include that category here.

Would you agree that the numbers suggest these teams should all be in contention for a top-four seed? Yet just about every week someone complains that we’ve seeded Teams A (UConn) and B (Gonzaga) too highly, while many people discount Creighton’s chance of a cushy placement. The reasons are understandable. UConn recently lost six of eight Big East games. Creighton suffered through a six-game losing streak earlier this season. Gonzaga hasn’t been vintage Gonzaga and is in second place — the horror! — in the WCC.

A stretch of poor play or some noticeable losses often remain stuck in the forefront of our brains. But the committee doesn’t look at a team’s body of work that way. They evaluate the season as a whole, and team sheets barely distinguish when wins and losses happened. All three of these teams have some excellent victories — Gonzaga and UConn especially — and robust metrics. Which might lead to higher seeds than you expect.

Let’s move on to Round 3, which features a trio of closely bunched-up teams with no bad losses:

If this were all you knew about these teams, you’d have to say they were pretty indistinguishable. Team A has more losses in Quad 1 but also more Q1 wins and no demerits outside that quad while also boasting the best overall strength of schedule. Team C has been outstanding on the road, and, while we didn’t include it for brevity’s sake, has a far superior nonconference SOS (23, compared to 82 for Team A and 100 for Team B).

Now what if I told you Team B is seeded higher on nearly every mock bracket you can find, while Team A was very much on the bubble as recently as a few days ago and Team C’s mock seeding has been all over the map?

Team B is Indiana, while Team A is West Virginia and Team C is San Diego State. The differentiator here, of course, is the quality of wins. Indiana has beaten No. 1 Purdue and won at Xavier and Illinois. West Virginia’s best work has come at home, though an early-season victory at Pittsburgh is improving in quality. San Diego State leads a strong Mountain West, but the Aztecs fell short in their marquee nonconference matchups (Arizona and Arkansas in Maui, Saint Mary’s in Phoenix).

That’s all for the 2023 Blind Résumé Challenge. Thanks for playing. And now, some quick notes on this week’s bracket, 30 days — huzzah! — until Selection Sunday:

• Houston fans were pretty salty last week about the Cougars being a No. 2 seed in our bracket. Well, Kansas’ 15-point loss at Iowa State last Saturday opened the door for Houston to return to the No. 1 line. (We’ll still take Arizona’s résumé ahead of the Coogs, though, metrics be damned).

• Wisconsin is the last team in this week. Have we lost our minds, including a team that is 72nd in NET, 64th in KenPom and just 14-9 overall? Maybe. But the Badgers are also 6-6 in Quad 1 with no losses outside the top two quads, and own the No. 9 schedule per NET. They’ve beaten Marquette, Iowa and USC away from home. Remember that Rutgers made the tournament last year with a 6-6 record in Quad 1 despite being 77th in NET and with three losses in the last two quads. No two years are the same, but the Badgers have a better résumé right now than the Scarlet Knights did a year ago — and for a second straight year we believe the committee would take their wins and schedule over a shakier profile like Texas A&M’s. For now, at least.

• This week’s Final Four pairings are South vs. East and Midwest vs. West based on our seed list, which you can find below. An asterisk denotes conference autobid qualifier. Questions? Gripes? Bring ’em to the comments section, and we’ll be game enough to respond.

First Four (Dayton)

Seed	Team
16	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi*
16	Morehead State*
11	Kentucky
11	North Carolina
16	Fairleigh Dickinson*
16	Alcorn State*
11	New Mexico
11	Wisconsin

South Region (Louisville)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Purdue*
16	Fairleigh Dickinson*/Alcorn State*	Columbus
8	NC State
9	Auburn
4	Marquette
13	Southern Miss*	Albany
5	Miami
12	Liberty*
3	Iowa State
14	UNC Greensboro*	Des Moines
6	Illinois
11	UNC/Kentucky
2	UCLA*
15	Youngstown State*	Sacramento
7	Providence
10	Oklahoma State

East Region (New York City)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Houston*
16	Rider*	Birmingham
8	West Virginia
9	Arkansas
4	Gonzaga
13	VCU*	Albany
5	Indiana
12	Charleston*
3	Tennessee
14	Princeton*	Greensboro
6	Creighton
11	New Mexico/Wisconsin
2	Baylor
15	Vermont*	Denver
7	Duke
10	Nevada

Midwest Region (Kansas City)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Alabama*
16	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi*/Morehead State*	Birmingham
8	Michigan State
9	Pittsburgh
4	Kansas State
13	Drake*	Orlando
5	UConn
12	Oral Roberts*
3	Virginia*
14	Colgate*	Greensboro
6	Iowa
11	Boise State
2	Kansas
15	UNC Asheville*	Des Moines
7	Maryland
10	USC

West Region (Las Vegas)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Arizona
16	Maryland Eastern Shore*	Sacramento
8	Missouri
9	Florida Atlantic*
4	Saint Mary's*
13	Utah Valley*	Orlando
5	TCU
12	Kent State*
3	Xavier*
14	UC Santa Barbara*	Columbus
6	Rutgers
11	Clemson
2	Texas*
15	Eastern Washington*	Denver
7	San Diego State*
10	Northwestern

(Photo of Trayce Jackson-Davis: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)